Applying the USA National Phenology Network\u27s Growing Degree Day Maps in Making Management Decisions

The USA National Phenology Network generates daily growing degree day maps for the United States at fine spatial resolution (2.5–3.0 km) using a January 1 start date and two common base temperatures. Maps are available up to 6 days into the future and can be viewed and manipulated using an online visualization tool or downloaded as image or raster files. By exploring these maps through the visualization tool, it is possible to see how heat accumulation over the course of the year varies from average conditions and to anticipate when heat accumulation thresholds will be met

A new approach to generating research-quality data through citizen science: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

Phenology is one of the most sensitive biological responses to climate change, and recent changes in phenology have the potential to shake up ecosystems. In some cases, it appears they already are. Thus, for ecological reasons it is critical that we improve our understanding of species’ phenologies and how these phenologies are responding to recent, rapid climate change. Phenological events like flowering and bird migrations are easy to observe, culturally important, and, at a fundamental level, naturally inspire human curiosity— thus providing an excellent opportunity to engage citizen scientists. The USA National Phenology Network has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change.

Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific dates at which individual phenological events are observed. The scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations could be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”), which makes it very appropriate for a citizen science audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for statistical analyses addressing questions such as how phenological events vary in time and space, and in response to global change. This new protocol is an important step forward, and its widespread adoption will increase the scientific value of data collected by citizen scientists.
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Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Results/Conclusions Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns

Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns

The value and opportunities of community-and citizen-based approaches to tropical forest biodiversity monitoring

The biodiversity sourcebook is accessible in pdf format for free from:•GOFC-GOLD Land Cover Office website: http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/sites/gofcgold-geobon_biodiversitysourcebook.php•GEO BON website:http://geobon.org

Biologically‐Relevant Trends in Springtime Temperatures Across the United States

Long‐term trends in temperature—a primary driver of phenology—are typically evaluated using monthly or seasonal averages. However, accumulated warmth, rather than average temperature, cues phenological events; further, the amount of heat necessary to trigger activity is species‐specific. We evaluated trends in the timing of three heat accumulation thresholds encompassing spring‐season biological activity in the conterminous United States over a 70‐year period to document changes from a biologically relevant perspective. The Southwest, Northeast, and Northwest regions exhibit the strongest advancements. Rates of change vary among thresholds within many regions, resulting in temporal compression and lengthening within the season. Further, in the Eastern United States, the days between when a single threshold is met in the south and north are decreasing; in the West, the opposite pattern is occurring. These trends generally match long‐term observations of species' phenology, underscoring the value of this approach for documenting biologically relevant changes in temperature.National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383]; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program [NA17OAR4310288]; Climate Assessment for the Southwest program at the University of Arizona6 month embargo; published online: 6 November 2019This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

How consistently do species leaf-out or flower in the same order? Understanding the factors that shape this characteristic of plant communities

Plant species are frequentlyreported to undergo leaf-out and flowering in a consistent order from 1 year to the next; however, only a limited number of these findings arise from studies encompassing many species or sites. Here, we evaluate the consistency in the order species leafed out in the northeastern United States using observations contributed to the USA National Phenology Network’s Nature’s Notebook platform. We repeated this analysis for flowering, evaluating a total of 132 species across 84 sites. We documented a relatively high degree of consistency in the order of both events among individual plants, with higher consistency in flowering. A small number of species pairs exhibited very high consistency in phenological order across several sites. The majority of species pairs exhibited variability in how consistently they underwent either leaf-out or flowering from site to site, which could be the result of either plastic or locally adaptive responses. Our investigation revealed that neither functional type nor seasonal position played a major role in shaping how consistently species leafed out or flowered in the same order. Instead, we found the number of days separating the events and interannual variability in timing to be the most influential factors driving the consistency in ordering.12 month embargo; first published 25 April 2023This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

COVID-19 impacts on participation in large scale biodiversity-themed community science projects in the United States

Shutdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have had extensive impacts on professional and volunteer-based biodiversity and conservation efforts. We evaluated the impact of the widespread pandemic-related closures in the spring of 2020 on participation patterns and rates on a national and a state-by-state basis in the United States in four biodiversity-themed community science programs: eBird, eButterfly, iNaturalist, and Nature's Notebook. We compared the number of participants, observations submitted, and proportion of observations collected in urban environments in spring 2020 to the expected values for these metrics based on activity in the previous five years (2015–2019), which in many cases exhibited underlying growth. At the national scale, eButterfly and Nature's Notebook exhibited declines in the number of participants and number of observations submitted during the spring of 2020 and iNaturalist and eBird showed growth in both measures. On a state-by-state basis, the patterns varied geographically and by program. The more popular programs – iNaturalist and eBird – exhibited increases in the Eastern U.S. in both the number of observations and participants and slight declines in the West. Further, there was a widespread increase in observations originating from urban areas, particularly in iNaturalist and eBird. Understanding the impacts of lockdowns on participation patterns in these programs is crucial for proper interpretation of the data. The data generated by these programs are highly valuable for documenting impacts of pandemic-related closures on wildlife and plants and may suggest patterns seen in other community science programs and in other countries. © 2021 Elsevier LtdU.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceNo embargo COVID-19This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species-level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.United States Geological Survey [G14AC00405, G17AC00405, G18AC00135]24 month embargo; available online 20 September 2019.This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]