Applying the USA National Phenology Network\u27s Growing Degree Day Maps in Making Management Decisions

The USA National Phenology Network generates daily growing degree day maps for the United States at fine spatial resolution (2.5–3.0 km) using a January 1 start date and two common base temperatures. Maps are available up to 6 days into the future and can be viewed and manipulated using an online visualization tool or downloaded as image or raster files. By exploring these maps through the visualization tool, it is possible to see how heat accumulation over the course of the year varies from average conditions and to anticipate when heat accumulation thresholds will be met

A new approach to generating research-quality data through citizen science: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

Phenology is one of the most sensitive biological responses to climate change, and recent changes in phenology have the potential to shake up ecosystems. In some cases, it appears they already are. Thus, for ecological reasons it is critical that we improve our understanding of species’ phenologies and how these phenologies are responding to recent, rapid climate change. Phenological events like flowering and bird migrations are easy to observe, culturally important, and, at a fundamental level, naturally inspire human curiosity— thus providing an excellent opportunity to engage citizen scientists. The USA National Phenology Network has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change.

Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific dates at which individual phenological events are observed. The scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations could be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”), which makes it very appropriate for a citizen science audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for statistical analyses addressing questions such as how phenological events vary in time and space, and in response to global change. This new protocol is an important step forward, and its widespread adoption will increase the scientific value of data collected by citizen scientists.
&#xa

Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Results/Conclusions Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns

The value and opportunities of community-and citizen-based approaches to tropical forest biodiversity monitoring

The biodiversity sourcebook is accessible in pdf format for free from:•GOFC-GOLD Land Cover Office website: http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/sites/gofcgold-geobon_biodiversitysourcebook.php•GEO BON website:http://geobon.org

Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns

Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

This slide presentation reviews the study that used a model to forecast pollen to assist in warning for asthma populations. Using MODIS daily reflectances to input to a model, PREAM, adapted from the Dust REgional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system, a product of predicted pollen is produced. Using the pollen from Juniper the PREAM model was shown to be an assist in alerting the public of pollen bursts, and reduce the health impact on asthma populations

Current NASA Earth Remote Sensing Observations

This slide presentation reviews current NASA Earth Remote Sensing observations in specific reference to improving public health information in view of pollen sensing. While pollen sampling has instrumentation, there are limitations, such as lack of stations, and reporting lag time. Therefore it is desirable use remote sensing to act as early warning system for public health reasons. The use of Juniper Pollen was chosen to test the possibility of using MODIS data and a dust transport model, Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) to act as an early warning system

Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

No abstract availabl

Integrating Airborne Dust Forecasting and Remote Sensing into Air Quality and Public Health Decision Support Services

No abstract availabl

The Prospects for Spread and Impacts of Removal of Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees

Non-indigenous invasive species are a major threat to native species diversity and ecosystem function and have been called the single worst threat of natural disaster of this century. Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees (Lehmann lovegrass), a tufted perennial bunchgrass native to southern Africa, is one such problematic species in Arizona, USA. This dissertation research is a mix of predictive modeling and field experiments designed to inform management decisions based on greater understanding of this nonnative species, with emphasis on the potential for spread and the impacts of removal.The modeling studies in this dissertation aimed to predict the potential distribution of E. lehmanniana in the southwestern United States under current and potential future climate conditions. The first portion of study addressed a common assumption in predictive modeling of nonnative species: data from the species' native range are necessary to accurately predict the potential distribution in the invaded range. The second portion of this study predicted the distribution of E. lehmanniana under 28 different climate change scenarios. Results showed the distribution of E. lehmanniana progressively shrinking in the southeastern and northwestern portions of the state and increasing in the northeastern portion of the state with increasing temperatures and precipitation. Key shifts occurred under scenarios with increases in summer and winter precipitation of 30% or more, and increases in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures of at least 2oC.The field experiment served as a pre-eradication assessment for E. lehmanniana and indicates how semi-desert grassland communities in southeastern Arizona may respond to the removal of this species. This study suggested that plant community response to removal of an introduced species is mediated by precipitation variability (timing and amount), local site history, and edaphic conditions. The response observed on a site previously farmed for decades was to subsequently become dominated by other nonnative annual species. However, the two other sites with histories of livestock grazing responded more predictably to the removal, with an increase in annual ruderal species (2 to 10 times the amount of annual cover recorded on control plots)