Poverty analysis using an international cross-country demand system

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Lines

A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Food-Borne Pathogens

To lower the incidence of human food-borne disease, experts and stakeholders have urged the development of a science- and risk-based management system in which food-borne hazards are analyzed and prioritized. A literature review shows that most approaches to risk prioritization developed to date are based on measures of health outcomes and do not systematically account for other factors that may be important to decision making. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework developed here considers four factors that may be important to risk managers: public health, consumer risk perceptions and acceptance, market-level impacts, and social sensitivity. The framework is based on the systematic organization and analysis of data on these multiple factors. The basic building block of the information structure is a three-dimensional cube based on pathogen-food-factor relationships. Each cell of the cube has an information card associated with it and data from the cube can be aggregated along different dimensions. The framework is operationalized in three stages, with each stage adding another dimension to decision-making capacity. The first stage is the information cards themselves that provide systematic information that is not pre-processed or aggregated across factors. The second stage maps the information on the various information cards into cobweb diagrams that create a graphical profile of, for example, a food-pathogen combination with respect to each of the four risk prioritization factors. The third stage is formal multi-criteria decision analysis in which decision makers place explicit values on different criteria in order to develop risk priorities. The process outlined above produces a ‘List A’ of priority food-pathogen combinations according to some aggregate of the four risk prioritization factors. This list is further vetted to produce ‘List B’, which brings in feasibility analysis by ranking those combinations where practical actions that have a significant impact are feasible. Food-pathogen combinations where not enough is known to identify any or few feasible interventions are included in ‘List C’. ‘List C’ highlights areas with significant uncertainty where further research may be needed to enhance the precision of the risk prioritization process. The separation of feasibility and uncertainty issues through the use of ‘Lists A, B, and C’ allows risk managers to focus separately on distinct dimensions of the overall prioritization. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework provides a flexible instrument that compares and contrasts risks along four dimensions. Use of the framework is an iterative process. It can be used to establish priorities across pathogens for a particular food, across foods for a particular pathogen and/or across specific food-pathogen combinations. This report provides a comprehensive conceptual paper that forms the basis for a wider process of consultation and for case studies applying the framework.risk analysis, risk prioritization, food-borne pathogens, benefits and costs

Bowel management post major joint arthroplasty: a randomised controlled trial to test two pre-admission bowel regimens

Background: The length of stay for patients undergoing joint arthroplasty has reduced but there is a paucity of knowledge relating to bowel management within this enhanced recovery framework. Aim: The study\u27s primary aim was to determine which of two dosage regimens of macrogol (Movicol®) commenced pre-operatively is most effective in facilitating a return to normal bowel function. Procedure: Ninety-one eligible patients were randomised to one of three groups: 1) commence macrogol one sachet in the morning for two days prior to surgery; 2) commence macrogol one sachet, morning and evening of the day prior to surgery; or 3) control group. Results: Seventy-seven percent of patients in group one, and 83% of group two had returned to normal bowel function by one-week post discharge compared to 70% of control patients (p = .470). Participants in group one required less aperients in the week following discharge compared with the other two groups although the result was not statistically significant (p = .060). Conclusion: Despite not reaching statistical significance, the results are considered clinically significant. The authors recommend patients commence macrogol one sachet in the morning for the two days prior to admission for major joint arthroplasty and the Murdoch Bowel Protocol® continue to be followed for inpatients

Ecological drivers of helminth infection patterns in the Virunga Massif mountain gorilla population

The Virunga Massif mountain gorilla population has been periodically monitored since the early 1970s, with gradually increasing effort. The population declined drastically in the 1970s, but the numbers stabilized in the 1980s. Since then, the population has been steadily increasing within their limited habitat fragment that is surrounded by a dense human population. We examined fecal samples collected during the Virunga 2015–2016 surveys in monitored and unmonitored gorilla groups and quantified strongylid and tapeworm infections using egg counts per gram to determine environmental and host factors that shape these helminth infections. We showed that higher strongylid infections were present in gorilla groups with smaller size of the 500-m buffered minimum-convex polygon (MCP) of detected nest sites per gorilla group, but in higher gorilla densities and inhabiting vegetation types occurring at higher elevations with higher precipitation and lower temperatures. On the contrary, the impact of monitoring (habituation) was minor, detected in tapeworms and only when in the interaction with environmental variables and MCP area. Our results suggest that the Virunga mountain gorilla population may be partially regulated by strongylid nematodes at higher gorilla densities. New health challenges are probably emerging among mountain gorillas because of the success of conservation efforts, as manifested by significant increases in gorilla numbers in recent decades, but few possibilities for the population expansion due to limited amounts of habitat

HtrA, fatty acids, and membrane protein interplay in Chlamydia trachomatis to impact stress response and trigger early cellular exit

UNLABELLED: Chlamydia trachomatis is an intracellular bacterial pathogen that undergoes a biphasic developmental cycle, consisting of intracellular reticulate bodies and extracellular infectious elementary bodies. A conserved bacterial protease, HtrA, was shown previously to be essential for Chlamydia during the reticulate body phase, using a novel inhibitor (JO146). In this study, isolates selected for the survival of JO146 treatment were found to have polymorphisms in the acyl-acyl carrier protein synthetase gene (aasC). AasC encodes the enzyme responsible for activating fatty acids from the host cell or synthesis to be incorporated into lipid bilayers. The isolates had distinct lipidomes with varied fatty acid compositions. A reduction in the lipid compositions that HtrA prefers to bind to was detected, yet HtrA and MOMP (a key outer membrane protein) were present at higher levels in the variants. Reduced progeny production and an earlier cellular exit were observed. Transcriptome analysis identified that multiple genes were downregulated in the variants especially stress and DNA processing factors. Here, we have shown that the fatty acid composition of chlamydial lipids, HtrA, and membrane proteins interplay and, when disrupted, impact chlamydial stress response that could trigger early cellular exit.IMPORTANCE: Chlamydia trachomatis is an important obligate intracellular pathogen that has a unique biphasic developmental cycle. HtrA is an essential stress or virulence protease in many bacteria, with many different functions. Previously, we demonstrated that HtrA is critical for Chlamydia using a novel inhibitor. In the present study, we characterized genetic variants of Chlamydia trachomatis with reduced susceptibility to the HtrA inhibitor. The variants were changed in membrane fatty acid composition, outer membrane proteins, and transcription of stress genes. Earlier and more synchronous cellular exit was observed. Combined, this links stress response to fatty acids, membrane proteins, and HtrA interplay with the outcome of disrupted timing of chlamydial cellular exit.</p

Discovery of new colonies by Sentinel2 reveals good and bad news for emperor

The distribution of emperor penguins is circumpolar, with 54 colony locations currently reported of which 50 are currently extant as of 2019. Here we report on eight newly discovered colonies and confirm the rediscovery of three breeding sites, only previously reported in the era before Very High Resolution satellite imagery was available, making a total of 61 breeding locations. This represents an increase of ~20% in the number of breeding sites, but, as most of the colonies appear to be small, they may only increase the total population by around 5–10%. The discoveries have been facilitated by the use of Sentinel2 satellite imagery, which has a higher resolution and more efficient search mechanism than the Landsat data previously used to search for colonies. The small size of these new colonies indicates that considerations of reproductive output in relation to metabolic rate during huddling is likely to be of interest. Some of the colonies exist in offshore habitats, something not previously reported for emperor penguins. Comparison with recent modelling results show that the geographic locations of all the newly found colonies are in areas likely to be highly vulnerable under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, suggesting that population decreases for the species will be greater than previously thought

Pesticides and health: A review of evidence on health effects, valuation of risks, and benefit‐cost analysis

In this paper, we provide reviews of recent scientific findings on health effects and preference valuation of health risks related to pesticides, and the role of benefit‐cost analysis in policies related to pesticides. Our reviews reveal that whereas the focus of the health literature has been on individuals with direct exposure to pesticides, e.g. farmers, the literature on preference elicitation has focused on those with indirect exposure, e.g. consumers. Our discussion of pesticides policies emphasizes the need to clarify the rationale for regulation and the role of risk perceptions in benefit‐cost analysis, and stress the importance of inter‐disciplinary research in this area