Baseline characteristics influencing placebo response in clinical trials of treatments for fragile X syndrome

Fragile X Syndrome (FXS) is a disorder caused by a congenital mutation of the FMR1 gene on the X chromosome. FXS is associated with moderate to severe intellectual disability and is one known cause of autism spectrum disorders. There are no approved medications to treat FXS symptoms. In 2013, Seaside Therapeutics completed two Phase 3 studies of an investigational medication, STX209, for treatment of social withdrawal in FXS. Efficacy results for these studies were not positive. Clinical trials of psychoactive drugs often fail to show a statistical difference from placebo controls and a robust response to placebo is often cited as a reason for the failure. Retrospective studies of baseline variables in clinical trials have identified characteristics that were associated with an increased likelihood of responding to placebo. Such information is valuable for the design of future clinical trials and no such studies have been conducted in FXS. This study was a post-hoc analysis of data from Seaside Therapeutics' Phase 3 clinical trials in FXS. Baseline variables for subjects receiving placebo were pooled for analysis. To determine if a subject responded to placebo, the parent-rated ABC-SA and the ABC-IR were used. Clinician-rated assessments, including the CGI-S and CGI-I, were examined as well. Two-sample t-testing, one-way ANOVA testing, and correlation coefficients were calculated to compare the responses of subjects with different baseline characteristics. General linear regression modeling was used to determine if there were multiple baseline variables that could predict placebo response. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine if the baseline variables could predict whether a subject had a higher chance of being a treatment responder. A total of 287 subjects were randomized and completed the Phase 3 studies. Analyses for this study were conducted in a subgroup containing 106 subjects who received placebo. 76% improved during the study on the ABC-SA, indicating that there was a strong placebo effect on the study. None of the dichotomous baseline variables were associated with statistically significant differences in ABC-SA, ABC-IR, CGI-S, or CGI-I scores. Placebo-treated subjects in the 209FX302 study who were taking antipsychotics improved less on the CGI-S than those not on those medications. A similar pattern was observed on the ABC-IR and ABC-SA. Other categorical baseline variables were tested and there was no difference in the mean changes. The CGI-S score at baseline appeared to predict a statistically significant difference in the ABC-IR as more severe subjects were more likely to show a larger change in the ABC-IR. Similar, although not statistically significant results were seen with ABC-SA, CGI-I, and CGI-S changes, in that more severe subjects had greater responses to placebo. ABC-IR score changes were correlated independently with each of the ABC-C subscales but also with parental distress, CGI-S, and VAS-Anxiety. Only one variable, the ABC-IR at baseline, was significantly correlated with the ABC-SA score change, the rest of the variables were not significant. A multiple linear regression model predicting placebo response for the ABC-SA included only the baseline ABC-SA score. When the studies were modeled separately, the 209FX302 model contained additional variables including gender, antipsychotic use, and ABC-stereotypy scores. For the ABC-IR change model, the highest correlation coefficient was found in the 209FX301 study with ABC-IR, gender, Vineland-communication, maternal FMR1 status, and ABC-SL included in the model. 70% of the placebo treated subjects improved on the ABC-SA by at least 25%. Placebo responders were less frequently observed in clinician-rated assessments such as the CGI-I and CGI-S. In logistic regression models, for the ABC-IR response, a higher score on the hyperactivity subscale of the ABC-C was predictive of a lower placebo response. The CGI-S model was statistically significant and included the subject's age, race and ABC-IS score. The ABC-SA response could be modeled only in the 209FX302 study with gender and ADHD medication use remaining in the model. Also in the 209FX302 study, subjects were far less likely to be a responder on the ABC-IR or a total responder, if they were taking antipsychotic medications. Results of this study indicate that the ABC-SA is not recommended in future trials in the FXS patient population. Future trials should also allow ADHD and antipsychotic medication use as they were associated with a lower placebo response in some analyses. In addition, due to their inclusion in regression models, future studies should consider baseline variables such as parental stress and Vineland scores, and when designing study eligibility criteria or stratification variables

Quantum Arrival Time Formula from Decoherent Histories

In the arrival time problem in quantum mechanics, a standard formula that frequently emerges as the probability for crossing the origin during a given time interval is the current integrated over that time interval. This is semiclassically correct but can be negative due to backflow. Here, we show that this formula naturally arises in a decoherent histories analysis of the arrival time problem. For a variety of initial states, we show that histories crossing during different time intervals are approximately decoherent. Probabilities may therefore be assigned and coincide with the standard formula (in a semiclassical approximation), which is therefore positive for these states. However, for initial states for which there is backflow, we show that there cannot be decoherence of histories, so probabilities may not be assigned.Comment: 11 page

EXPLORE: A Prospective, Multinational, Natural History Study of Patients with Acute Hepatic Porphyria with Recurrent Attacks

Abstract Acute hepatic porphyria comprises a group of rare, genetic diseases caused by mutations in genes involved in heme biosynthesis. Patients can experience acute neurovisceral attacks, debilitating chronic symptoms, and long-term complications. There is a lack of multinational, prospective data characterizing the disease and current treatment practices in severely affected patients. EXPLORE is a prospective, multinational, natural history study characterizing disease activity and clinical management in patients with acute hepatic porphyria who experience recurrent attacks. Eligible patients had a confirmed acute hepatic porphyria diagnosis and had experienced ≥3 attacks in the prior 12 months or were receiving prophylactic treatment. A total of 112 patients were enrolled and followed for at least 6 months. In the 12 months prior to the study, patients reported a median (range) of 6 (0-52) acute attacks, with 52 (46%) patients receiving hemin prophylaxis. Chronic symptoms were reported by 73 (65%) patients, with 52 (46%) patients experiencing these daily. During the study, 98 (88%) patients experienced a total of 483 attacks, 77% of which required treatment at a healthcare facility and/or hemin administration (median [range] annualized attack rate 2.0 [0.0-37.0]). Elevated levels of hepatic δ-aminolevulinic acid synthase 1 messenger ribonucleic acid levels, δ-aminolevulinic acid, and porphobilinogen compared with the upper limit of normal in healthy individuals were observed at baseline and increased further during attacks. Patients had impaired quality of life and increased healthcare utilization. Conclusions: Patients experienced attacks often requiring treatment in a healthcare facility and/or with hemin, as well as chronic symptoms that adversely influence day-to-day functioning. In this patient group, the high disease burden and diminished quality of life highlight the need for novel therapies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

EXPLORE: A prospective, multinational natural history study of patients with acute hepatic porphyria with recurrent attacks

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute hepatic porphyria comprises a group of rare genetic diseases caused by mutations in genes involved in heme biosynthesis. Patients can experience acute neurovisceral attacks, debilitating chronic symptoms, and long-term complications. There is a lack of multinational, prospective data characterizing the disease and current treatment practices in severely affected patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: EXPLORE is a prospective, multinational, natural history study characterizing disease activity and clinical management in patients with acute hepatic porphyria who experience recurrent attacks. Eligible patients had a confirmed acute hepatic porphyria diagnosis and had experienced ≥3 attacks in the prior 12 months or were receiving prophylactic treatment. A total of 112 patients were enrolled and followed for at least 6 months. In the 12 months before the study, patients reported a median (range) of 6 (0-52) acute attacks, with 52 (46%) patients receiving hemin prophylaxis. Chronic symptoms were reported by 73 (65%) patients, with 52 (46%) patients experiencing these daily. During the study, 98 (88%) patients experienced a total of 483 attacks, 77% of which required treatment at a health care facility and/or hemin administration (median [range] annualized attack rate 2.0 [0.0-37.0]). Elevated levels of hepatic δ-aminolevulinic acid synthase 1 messenger ribonucleic acid levels, δ-aminolevulinic acid, and porphobilinogen compared with the upper limit of normal in healthy individuals were observed at baseline and increased further during attacks. Patients had impaired quality of life and increased health care utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Patients experienced attacks often requiring treatment in a health care facility and/or with hemin, as well as chronic symptoms that adversely influenced day-to-day functioning. In this patient group, the high disease burden and diminished quality of life highlight the need for novel therapies. (Hepatology 2020;71:1546-1558)

EXPLORE: A Prospective, Multinational, Natural History Study of Patients with Acute Hepatic Porphyria with Recurrent Attacks

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute hepatic porphyria comprises a group of rare genetic diseases caused by mutations in genes involved in heme biosynthesis. Patients can experience acute neurovisceral attacks, debilitating chronic symptoms, and long-term complications. There is a lack of multinational, prospective data characterizing the disease and current treatment practices in severely affected patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: EXPLORE is a prospective, multinational, natural history study characterizing disease activity and clinical management in patients with acute hepatic porphyria who experience recurrent attacks. Eligible patients had a confirmed acute hepatic porphyria diagnosis and had experienced ≥3 attacks in the prior 12 months or were receiving prophylactic treatment. A total of 112 patients were enrolled and followed for at least 6 months. In the 12 months before the study, patients reported a median (range) of 6 (0-52) acute attacks, with 52 (46%) patients receiving hemin prophylaxis. Chronic symptoms were reported by 73 (65%) patients, with 52 (46%) patients experiencing these daily. During the study, 98 (88%) patients experienced a total of 483 attacks, 77% of which required treatment at a health care facility and/or hemin administration (median [range] annualized attack rate 2.0 [0.0-37.0]). Elevated levels of hepatic δ-aminolevulinic acid synthase 1 messenger ribonucleic acid levels, δ-aminolevulinic acid, and porphobilinogen compared with the upper limit of normal in healthy individuals were observed at baseline and increased further during attacks. Patients had impaired quality of life and increased health care utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Patients experienced attacks often requiring treatment in a health care facility and/or with hemin, as well as chronic symptoms that adversely influenced day-to-day functioning. In this patient group, the high disease burden and diminished quality of life highlight the need for novel therapies. (Hepatology 2020;71:1546-1558)

EXPLORE: A Prospective, Multinational, Natural History Study of Patients with Acute Hepatic Porphyria with Recurren

Background and Aims: Acute hepatic porphyria comprises a group of rare genetic diseases caused by mutations in genes involved in heme biosynthesis. Patients can experience acute neurovisceral attacks, debilitating chronic symptoms, and long-term complications. There is a lack of multinational, prospective data characterizing the disease and current treatment practices in severely affected patients. Approach and Results: EXPLORE is a prospective, multinational, natural history study characterizing disease activity and clinical management in patients with acute hepatic porphyria who experience recurrent attacks. Eligible patients had a confirmed acute hepatic porphyria diagnosis and had experienced ≥3 attacks in the prior 12 months or were receiving prophylactic treatment. A total of 112 patients were enrolled and followed for at least 6 months. In the 12 months before the study, patients reported a median (range) of 6 (0-52) acute attacks, with 52 (46%) patients receiving hemin prophylaxis. Chronic symptoms were reported by 73 (65%) patients, with 52 (46%) patients experiencing these daily. During the study, 98 (88%) patients experienced a total of 483 attacks, 77% of which required treatment at a health care facility and/or hemin administration (median [range] annualized attack rate 2.0 [0.0-37.0]). Elevated levels of hepatic δ-aminolevulinic acid synthase 1 messenger ribonucleic acid levels, δ-aminolevulinic acid, and porphobilinogen compared with the upper limit of normal in healthy individuals were observed at baseline and increased further during attacks. Patients had impaired quality of life and increased health care utilization. Conclusions: Patients experienced attacks often requiring treatment in a health care facility and/or with hemin, as well as chronic symptoms that adversely influenced day-to-day functioning. In this patient group, the high disease burden and diminished quality of life highlight the need for novel therapies

Data-driven epidemiologic approach to conducting site feasibility for a global phase III tuberculosis vaccine clinical trial.

An efficacious tuberculosis (TB) vaccine is critical to reducing the global burden of TB. TB vaccine trials require the identification of multiple sites globally that have both a high incidence of TB and the capacity to conduct a clinical trial. To expand the diversity of potential phase III TB vaccine trial sites to be considered for inclusion, we describe a novel epidemiologic method that incorporates approaches from a variety of public health practices. Our approach incorporates analytic methodology to enable quantification and validation of qualitative information from disparate data sources, and epidemiologic analysis to systematically assess site-specific TB epidemiology. The integration of robust data-driven practices, and more quantitatively focused analysis, allowed for the objective evaluation of sites, which resulted in the identification of sites and catchment areas with high TB burden that may not have been previously considered. This suggests that an integrated epidemiologic methodology, not traditionally utilized for clinical trial site evaluations, could be integrated into site feasibility assessments as it results in more rapid site identification and reduces unintended bias

Resurgent functions and splitting problems(New Trends and Applications of Complex Asymptotic Analysis : around dynamical systems, summability, continued fractions)

Introduction Although the accumulation of hepatic iron occurs during chronic liver injury, its role in fibrogenesis remains poorly understood. To date, studies show that excess iron in hepatocytes promotes formation of reactive oxygen species, which then activate hepatic stellate cells (HSC) to secrete collagen matrix. It is unclear however, whether iron directly affects HSC function. Aim Our aims were to investigate the effects of exogenous iron on core fibrogenic and iron-related genes and proteins in HSCs. Method The GRX murine HSC cell line was treated with the physiologically relevant form of transferrin-bound iron, holotransferrin (0.005, 0.05, 0.5, 2 and 5 g/L) for 24 h, with or without the iron chelator deferoxamine (10 μM). Expression of fibrogenic markers (α-SMA, TGF-β and Serpine-1) were analyzed by qRT-PCR, while ferritin was measured by ELISA. Levels of transferrin receptor (TfR1), TGF-β receptors and p-Smad 2 and 4 were analyzed by western blot, and secreted collagen was measured using the Sircol assay. Results HSCs express the iron-uptake and iron-exporter proteins TfR1 and ferroportin, respectively. Treatment with holotransferrin upregulated the expression of TfR1 by 1.8-fold (p<0.05), led to the accumulation of storage iron (ferritin) by up to 2-fold (p<0.01), and activated HSCs: α-SMA mRNA increased by up to 2-fold (p<0.03), TGF-β mRNA was elevated by 1.6-fold (p=0.05) and Serpine-1 mRNA was raised by 2.5-fold (p<0.05). These were accompanied by a 2-fold increase in secreted collagen (p<0.03), and activation of the TGF-β pathway: increased protein expression of TGF-β R1, TGF-b RII, and p-Smad 2 and 4 (p<0.05). Conversely, the addition of deferoxamine significantly lowered ferritin levels by 30% (p<0.03), repressed fibrogenic genes, α-SMA (0.2-fold; p<0.03), and TGF-β (0.4-fold; <0.03), and reduced collagen secretion by up to 60% (p<0.01). Deferoxamine also inhibited TGF-β signaling, with decreased levels of TGF-β RII and p-Smad 2. Conclusion HSCs express the iron transport proteins and are regulated by levels of exogenous iron. Excess iron activates HSCs and the TGF-β pathway, while iron depletion using deferoxamine attenuates the fibrogenic response, suggesting that iron depletion could be a useful adjunctive therapy in the treatment of individuals with advanced liver disease