Risk, vulnerability and environmental hazards in the village of Darkot, northern Pakistan

Conventional approaches to studying environmental risks and hazards have focused on the physical parameters of geomorphic, hydrologic and climatic events—magnitude, duration and frequency—without adequately accounting for the role of human agency in averting disaster and distributing loss. Secondly, where human intervention was recognized it was often in an incriminating way, particularly in work dealing with the developing world or peripheral regions such as mountain areas. Here, humans were portrayed as helpless victims; unable to successfully adapt to their environment or else they were viewed as having played an unwitting role in their own downfall through ‘short-sighted’ agricultural practices such as overgrazing or deforestation. Since the late-1970s there has been an emerging sub-field in hazards research that has sought to place greater emphasis on the social, economic and environmental conditions that create a state of vulnerability, whereby communities, regions, ethnic groups, classes and nations are more likely to be exposed to hazardous processes and less able to recover from them. This research, based on fieldwork conducted in the village of Darkot in the Darakoram Mountains, Northern Pakistan, seeks to utilise this ‘vulnerability’ perspective to study risk and responses to risk by members of the community. In it I argue that losses from environmental hazards—while closely related to the magnitude of the event itself—must also be interpreted with regard to changes in environmental conditions unrelated to hazard events, socio-economic constraints that constrain household responses to risk and slow recovery and the constraints on settlement within and around the community, such that people have little choice but to settle in unsafe locations. This first section of this work deals with the various theoretical approaches to the study of risks and hazards, with particular references to the work of Hewitt (1983, 1997) and Blaikie et al. (1994, 2001) on the social construction of vulnerability. Physical conditions in the Karakoram and the Yasin Valley are discussed and the various ways in which human activity has modified the landscape. I argue that these mountain communities have developed a variety of ‘techniques’ that have—for the most part—been successful in managing the risks and hazards associated with such a dynamic environment. Traditional responses to risk, indeed the traditional economy, is being altered however with recent intervention by local and national government, in particular through the work of the AKRSP. To account for the totality of risk in the community, I have sought to address a number of interrelated elements including the hazards to which households in the community are exposed to, the intervening conditions that exacerbate or avert losses, the methods with which households adapt and cope with danger and loss and the extent to which various households in the community are more vulnerable than others to damaging events. To account for the formation of vulnerability at the community and household level, I have employed a version of Blaikie et al.’s (1994, 2001) ‘disaster and release model’ in which vulnerability is shown to be influenced by events and conditions far removed from what is considered a peripheral mountain valley. The research was carried out over a period of two months, during which time a number of interviews were carried out within the village, hazard sites and settlement patterns were identified and mapped, and data collected on land-use, population, cropping patterns and agricultural practices within the community

Farm-level vulnerability to climate change in the Eastern Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, in the context of multiple stressors

Climate change research is undergoing a monumental shift, from an almost exclusive focus on mitigation, and the reduction of greenhouse gases, to adaptation, and identifying the ways in which nations, communities and sectors might best respond to the reality of a changing climate. Vulnerability assessments are now being employed to identify the conditions to which socio ecological systems are exposed-sensitive and their capacity to adapt. Work has been conducted across a range of geographical locations and systems as diverse as healthcare and mining. There are however, few examples of analyses incorporating an assessment of the multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors to which agricultural producers are exposed. This thesis examines farm-level vulnerability to climate change of agricultural producers from the Eastern Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. The study area has a diverse agricultural economy, founded upon pastoral farming (dairy and drystock) and kiwifruit. This dependence on agricultural production, and the likely influence of expected changes in climatic conditions in the future provided a unique setting in which to develop a place-based case study exploring vulnerability to future climatic variability and change. Using a mixed methods approach, including semi-structured interviews and temporal analogues, a conceptual framework of farm-level vulnerability was developed and applied. The application of the framework was conducted through an empirical study that relied on engagement with and insights from producers who identified current exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It is shown that pastoral farmers and kiwifruit growers are exposed-sensitive to a range of climatic and non-climatic conditions that affect production, yields and farm income and returns. It demonstrates that producers have in turn, developed a range of short- and long-term adaptive strategies in order to better manage climatic conditions. It shows that these responses are varied, and are not made in response to climatic conditions alone, illustrating the need to consider other, multiple stimuli. An assessment of future vulnerability is presented, based on the empirical work and the identification of those drivers of vulnerability that are likely to be of concern and that will shape the capacity of farmers and growers to respond to climatic variability and change. The thesis as a whole not only provides a place-based case study on the vulnerability of farmers and kiwifruit growers in eastern New Zealand, but also demonstrates the need to engage with producers in order to develop an understanding of the complex ways in which climatic conditions interact with non-climatic stimuli beyond the farm-gate to influence vulnerability to climatic variability and change, both now and in the future

Decisions, options, and actions in the face of uncertainty: a systematic bibliometric and thematic review of climate adaptation pathways

Climate change is already having adverse impacts, with place- and problem-based implications due to higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. Despite uncertainty about the full extent of future change, adaptation will be required. Adaptation pathways (APs) planning is increasingly used as a methodological approach to identify, evaluate, and sequence adaptation options over time. Pathways link critical decisions to future conditions, providing a road map to support planning in the face of uncertainty. This systematic review identifies and assesses the rapidly growing APs literature, focusing on its definition, and application in diverse contexts. Using bibliometric and thematic analysis, we highlight scholarly networks driving innovation in this area, characterise theoretical and conceptual differences in framing, and derive insights for best practice. Results show the evolution in interpretation, framing and practice; from an initial focus on managing uncertainty with technological- and engineered-based approaches, through to more participatory, policy- and decision-relevant pathways. Pathways planning has become increasingly collaborative, and is now used to address climate adaptation outcomes, within the broader context of interacting and compounding stressors. Results also highlight challenges in conceptualising and operationalizing APs, including comprehensive accounting for costs, and navigating social dynamics involved in process development. Based on these findings we propose new avenues for research, to develop methodologies to better engage with stakeholders’ social, political, and economic concerns, and enhance learning for climate adapted futures

Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of 'serious games' for engagement and decision-making

Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. 'Serious games' - games used for purposes other than entertainment - are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social learning, to assess which combinations of cognitive (knowledge and thinking), normative (norms and approaches) and relational (how people connect and network building) learning are achieved. Results show that factors influencing the overall success in influencing behaviour and catalysing learning for adaptation include generating high levels of inter- and intra- level trust between researchers, practitioners and community participants; strong debriefing and evaluation practices; and the use of experienced and knowledgeable facilitators. These results can help inform future game design, and research methodologies to develop robust ways for engaging with stakeholders and end users, and enhance learning effects for resilient climate futures

The social side of agroecological systems: farmers' adaptation capacity

The impacts and implications of climate change are increasingly evidenced by gradual rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and the potential for more frequent and extreme, even sequential and cascading events (Raymond et al., 2020). These changes are projected to adversely affect agroecological systems and their contribution to food security, water management, and ecosystem functioning and provisioning through reduced tolerance of these systems to biotic and abiotic stresses (Twecan et al., 2022; Semeraro et al., 2023). Evidence of these impacts are documented by science, but are also socially perceived through individual and collective perspectives (Azeem and Alhafi-Alotaibi, 2023). Individuals socially construct risk and determine how to deal with it (Tiet et al., 2022). Although risk awareness is considered necessary in the first stages of the adaptation process to reduce risk exposure (Akano et al., 2022), weather variability can make it difficult to detect long-term trends, leading to divergent perceptions of climate change (Ricart et al., 2023). Furthermore, observations are spaced over time and individual and collective experiences of past events can be faulty or uncertain (Song et al., 2021). For example, concern about climate change can vary due to perception of scale: local problems often seem more urgent; while recent effects, and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events, can rapidly increase risk perception (Savari et al., 2023)

Sustainability in a changing world: integrating human health and wellbeing, urbanisation, and ecosystem services

There is an urgent need to address interlinked sustainability issues in a world challenged by inequality, finite resources and unprecedented changes across Earth’s systems. As Future Earth Fellows, based on our collective expertise in a diverse range of sustainability issues, here we identify a specific need to recognise and respond appropriately to the nexus between human health and wellbeing, urbanisation, and ecosystem services (the ‘WUE nexus’). This nexus is a priority area for research, policy and practice. In particular, it provides a useful pathway to meet the challenges of successful implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this brief, we present the following policy recommendations:1. By emphasising urban-rural linkages, foster an integrated approach to ensure food security, food safety, and health promotion;2. Secure resilient livelihoods for all, in particular for vulnerable groups; and3. Integrate co-production of knowledge in science for decision-making, including the co-design of implementation frameworks, and the adoption of a nexus approach.<br/

What You Sow Is What You Reap? (Dis-)Incentives for Adaptation Intentions in Farming

Adaptation by farmers and other land managers responsible for climate-sensitive activities is central to ensuring resilience in the face of ongoing climate variability and change. However, there remains an adaptation deficit among agricultural producers: action to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is insufficient. To motivate adaptation, diverse incentives are in place most notably through the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy which offers financial incentives to farmers. However, the effect of incentives on behaviour appears to be low. To better understand adaptation intentions, we report on the results of a survey experiment assessing framing effects on German farmers. Four framings of adaptation motifs—financial, norms, risk awareness, and technological innovation—are tested against a socio-cognitive model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). According to PMT, adaptation intentions are a function of an individual’s risk and coping appraisal. Results show that, contrary to assumptions of profit maximizing individuals, economic incentives trigger fewer overall change intentions. Economic rewards do act on risk perception, but are less likely to trigger coping perception, while other treatments do. As coping perception is one of two socio-cognitive reactions to climate change, financial incentive structures fail to act on about half the factors leading to adaptation intentions. These effects dependent on subgroups, farm structures, and are mediated by climate experience. To support transitions towards robust adaptation, adaptation incentives must move beyond financial framings alone, and leverage on farmers’ recent experiences with adverse climate impacts, understandings of climate change, and the influence of social norms

Land Management Change as Adaptation to Climate and Other Stressors: A Systematic Review of Decision Contexts Using Values-Rules-Knowledge

Agricultural producers are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation. While incremental changes to cope with interannual variability are widely applied, there is limited understanding of the social contexts that inform, enable, or constrain more transformational adaptations in response to anticipated or actual climate change and other stressors. Systematic review methods are used to identify 31 empirical examples of land management change as an adaptation response by agricultural producers in developed countries. We then applied the values-rules-knowledge (vrk) framework to analyse interactions between societal values, institutional rules, and scientific and experiential knowledge. The vrk is a heuristic to help decision makers analyze how the social system shapes their decision context. Three propositions highlighting the relative influence of different values&ndash;rules, values&ndash;knowledge, and rules&ndash;knowledge relationships on agri-food and forestry land-management decisions are presented and discussed. We suggest that further testing of these propositions will provide evidence for decision makers about how decision contexts can be shifted to enable anticipatory transformative adaptation in the primary industries and support sustainable transitions towards more resilient futures

Land Management Change as Adaptation to Climate and Other Stressors: A Systematic Review of Decision Contexts Using Values-Rules-Knowledge

Agricultural producers are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation. While incremental changes to cope with interannual variability are widely applied, there is limited understanding of the social contexts that inform, enable, or constrain more transformational adaptations in response to anticipated or actual climate change and other stressors. Systematic review methods are used to identify 31 empirical examples of land management change as an adaptation response by agricultural producers in developed countries. We then applied the values-rules-knowledge (vrk) framework to analyse interactions between societal values, institutional rules, and scientific and experiential knowledge. The vrk is a heuristic to help decision makers analyze how the social system shapes their decision context. Three propositions highlighting the relative influence of different values–rules, values–knowledge, and rules–knowledge relationships on agri-food and forestry land-management decisions are presented and discussed. We suggest that further testing of these propositions will provide evidence for decision makers about how decision contexts can be shifted to enable anticipatory transformative adaptation in the primary industries and support sustainable transitions towards more resilient futures