Simulating CH_4 and CO_2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA

The increasing availability of atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from surface stations can improve the retrieval of their fluxes at higher spatial and temporal resolutions by inversions, provided that transport models are able to properly represent the variability of concentrations observed at different stations. South and East Asia (SEA; the study area in this paper including the regions of South Asia and East Asia) is a region with large and very uncertain emissions of carbon dioxide (CO_2) and methane (CH_4), the most potent anthropogenic GHGs. Monitoring networks have expanded greatly during the past decade in this region, which should contribute to reducing uncertainties in estimates of regional GHG budgets. In this study, we simulate concentrations of CH_4 and CO_2 using zoomed versions (abbreviated as ZAs) of the global chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA, which have fine horizontal resolutions of  ∼ 0.66° in longitude and  ∼ 0.51° in latitude over SEA and coarser resolutions elsewhere. The concentrations of CH_4 and CO_2 simulated from ZAs are compared to those from the same model but with standard model grids of 2.50° in longitude and 1.27° in latitude (abbreviated as STs), both prescribed with the same natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Model performance is evaluated for each model version at multi-annual, seasonal, synoptic and diurnal scales, against a unique observation dataset including 39 global and regional stations over SEA and around the world. Results show that ZAs improve the overall representation of CH_4 annual gradients between stations in SEA, with reduction of RMSE by 16–20% compared to STs. The model improvement mainly results from reduction in representation error at finer horizontal resolutions and thus better characterization of the CH_4 concentration gradients related to scattered distributed emission sources. However, the performance of ZAs at a specific station as compared to STs is more sensitive to errors in meteorological forcings and surface fluxes, especially when short-term variabilities or stations close to source regions are examined. This highlights the importance of accurate a priori CH_4 surface fluxes in high-resolution transport modeling and inverse studies, particularly regarding locations and magnitudes of emission hotspots. Model performance for CO_2 suggests that the CO_2 surface fluxes have not been prescribed with sufficient accuracy and resolution, especially the spatiotemporally varying carbon exchange between land surface and atmosphere. In addition, the representation of the CH_4 and CO_2 short-term variabilities is also limited by model's ability to simulate boundary layer mixing and mesoscale transport in complex terrains, emphasizing the need to improve sub-grid physical parameterizations in addition to refinement of model resolutions

Simulating CH_4 and CO_2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA

The increasing availability of atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from surface stations can improve the retrieval of their fluxes at higher spatial and temporal resolutions by inversions, provided that transport models are able to properly represent the variability of concentrations observed at different stations. South and East Asia (SEA; the study area in this paper including the regions of South Asia and East Asia) is a region with large and very uncertain emissions of carbon dioxide (CO_2) and methane (CH_4), the most potent anthropogenic GHGs. Monitoring networks have expanded greatly during the past decade in this region, which should contribute to reducing uncertainties in estimates of regional GHG budgets. In this study, we simulate concentrations of CH_4 and CO_2 using zoomed versions (abbreviated as ZAs) of the global chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA, which have fine horizontal resolutions of  ∼ 0.66° in longitude and  ∼ 0.51° in latitude over SEA and coarser resolutions elsewhere. The concentrations of CH_4 and CO_2 simulated from ZAs are compared to those from the same model but with standard model grids of 2.50° in longitude and 1.27° in latitude (abbreviated as STs), both prescribed with the same natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Model performance is evaluated for each model version at multi-annual, seasonal, synoptic and diurnal scales, against a unique observation dataset including 39 global and regional stations over SEA and around the world. Results show that ZAs improve the overall representation of CH_4 annual gradients between stations in SEA, with reduction of RMSE by 16–20% compared to STs. The model improvement mainly results from reduction in representation error at finer horizontal resolutions and thus better characterization of the CH_4 concentration gradients related to scattered distributed emission sources. However, the performance of ZAs at a specific station as compared to STs is more sensitive to errors in meteorological forcings and surface fluxes, especially when short-term variabilities or stations close to source regions are examined. This highlights the importance of accurate a priori CH_4 surface fluxes in high-resolution transport modeling and inverse studies, particularly regarding locations and magnitudes of emission hotspots. Model performance for CO_2 suggests that the CO_2 surface fluxes have not been prescribed with sufficient accuracy and resolution, especially the spatiotemporally varying carbon exchange between land surface and atmosphere. In addition, the representation of the CH_4 and CO_2 short-term variabilities is also limited by model's ability to simulate boundary layer mixing and mesoscale transport in complex terrains, emphasizing the need to improve sub-grid physical parameterizations in addition to refinement of model resolutions

Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: A modeling study for radiocaesium ( 134 Cs & 137 Cs)

International audienceThe accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous ra-dionuclides emitted, 137 Cs (half-life: 30.2 years) and 134 Cs (half-life: 2.06 years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer incidents were estimated to be between 360 and 850, whereas 220-520 of them will be fatal. Nevertheless, these numbers are expected to be even smaller, as the response of the Japanese official authorities to the accident was rapid. The projected cancer incidents are much lower than the casualties occurred from the earthquake itself (N20,000) and also smaller than the accident of Chernobyl

How “lucky” we are that the Fukushima disaster occurred in early spring

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Global Transport and Deposition of 137 Cs Following the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Japan: Emphasis on Europe and Asia Using High−Resolution Model Versions and Radiological Impact Assessment of the Human Population and the Environment Using Interactive Tools

International audienceThe earthquake and the subsequent tsunami that occurred offshore of Japan resulted in an important loss of life and a serious accident at the nuclear facility of Fukushima. The “hot spots” of the release are evaluated here applying the model LMDZORINCA for 137Cs. Moreover, an assessment is attempted for the population and the environment using the dosimetric scheme of the WHO and the interactive tool ERICA, respectively. Cesium-137 was deposited mostly in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and North Pole (80%), whereas the rest in the continental areas of North America and Eurasia contributed slightly to the natural background (0.5–5.0 kBq m–2). The effective dose from 137Cs and 134Cs (radiocesium) irradiation during the first 3 months was estimated between 1–5 mSv in Fukushima and the neighboring prefectures. In the rest of Japan, the respective doses were found to be less than 0.5 mSv, whereas in the rest of the world it was less than 0.1 mSv. Such doses are equivalent with the obtained dose from a simple X-ray; for the highly contaminated regions, they are close to the dose limit for exposure due to radon inhalation (10 mSv). The calculated dose rates from radiocesium exposure on reference organisms ranged from 0.03 to 0.18 μGy h–1, which are 2 orders of magnitude below the screening dose limit (10 μGy h–1) that could result in obvious effects on the population. However, these results may underestimate the real situation, since stable soil density was used in the calculations, a zero radiocesium background was assumed, and dose only from two radionuclides was estimated, while more that 40 radionuclides have been deposited in the vicinity of the facility. When monitoring data applied, much higher dose rates were estimated certifying ecological risk for small mammals and reptiles in terms of cytogenetic damage and reproduction

Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

International audienceThe coupled model LMDZORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5° × 1.27°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.66° × 0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels respectively, extending up to the mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The model is validated with the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986 using the emission inventory from Brandt et al. (2002). This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries.According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. The best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to De Cort et al., 1998), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of the levels in conjunction with the uncertainty of the source term. Moreover, the ecological half-life of 137Cs in the atmosphere after the accident ranged between 6 and 9 days, which is in good accordance to what previously reported and in the same range with the recent accident in Japan. The high response of LMDZORINCA model for 137Cs reinforces the importance of atmospheric modelling in emergency cases to gather information for protecting the population from the adverse effects of radiatio

Toward High‐Resolution Global Atmospheric Inverse Modeling Using Graphics Accelerators

The recent focus on national greenhouse budgets for the preparation of the first Global StockTake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has renewed the incentive toward higher spatial resolutions of the transport models embedded in atmospheric inversions (Chevallier, 2021; Deng et al., 2022). For instance, despite its two parallelization layers, the transport model in the LSCE inversion system, which derives from Remaud et al. (2018), currently achieves a modest 3.75° in longitude × 1.90° in latitude. This limits the comparison of the inversion results with UNFCCC national inventory reports to large countries or groups of countries (Chevallier, 2021). A specific feature of the LSCE system up to now has been its use in the time-critical environment of the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS, https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/) for carbon dioxide (CO 2) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O): the "time to solution" of the LSCE system, and therefore its spatial resolution, have been constrained by the desire to keep its latest products to a maximum of a few months from real time. However, this resolution challenge is shared by the current generation of global transport models used for inverse modeling. In version 10 of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) of the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2), six out of the 11 participating models were run at 5° in longitude × 4° in latitude or coarser; the CAMS/LSCE system at its standard 3.75° × 1.90° resolution was another participant; the resolution of three other participants was between 2.5° and 3.0° in longitude × 2.0° in latitude globally (with a regional zoom for one of them) (https://ceos.org/gst/carbon-dioxide.html, accessed 8 January 2023)

ICOLMDZORINCA CO2 Transport GMD 2023

<p>Efforts to monitor the emissions and absorptions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) over the globe and to understand their varying regional patterns with greater accuracy have intensified in recent years. This study evaluates the performance of a new model coupling, ICOLMDZORINCA, built around the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMDZ) for simulating CO₂ transport. ICOLMDZORINCA utilizes the new icosahedral hydrostatic dynamical core called Dynamico running on an unstructured grid, which enables potential improvements in spatial resolution at the Equator while removing artificial distortions and numerical filters at the poles. Comparisons with a reference configuration using a structured latitude-longitude grid reveal that ICOLMDZORINCA well captures seasonal variations in CO₂ concentrations at surface stations. While not significantly enhancing the capture of complex seasonal patterns, ICOLMDZORINCA maintains comparable accuracy. Both configurations exhibit similar vertical CO₂ concentration profiles and display a consistent bias in the lower stratosphere relative to observational data. ICOLMDZORINCA demonstrates advantages in computational efficiency and storage, thanks to its reduced cell count per level and a homogeneous grid structure. It holds promise for future developments, including with the LMDZ offline model and associated inversion system, which contribute to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Overall, the ICOLMDZORINCA configuration showcases the efficacy of utilizing an unstructured grid for the physics, and the capability of Dynamico in accurately simulating CO₂ transport. This study emphasizes the importance of advanced modeling approaches and high-resolution innovative grids in enhancing our understanding of the global carbon cycle and refining climate models.</p&gt

On the impact of recent developments of the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model on the simulation of CO2 transport

International audienceThe quality of the representation of greenhouse gas (GHG) transport in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) drives the potential of inverse systems to retrieve GHG surface fluxes to a large extent. In this work, the transport of CO 2 is evaluated in the latest version of the Labora-toire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz) GCM, developed for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) relative to the LMDz version developed for CMIP5. Several key changes have been implemented between the two versions , which include a more elaborate radiative scheme, new subgrid-scale parameterizations of convective and boundary layer processes and a refined vertical resolution. We performed a set of simulations of LMDz with different physical parameterizations, two different horizontal resolutions and different land surface schemes, in order to test the impact of those different configurations on the overall transport simulation. By modulating the intensity of vertical mixing, the physical parameterizations control the interhemispheric gradient and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, as emphasized by the comparison with observations at surface sites. However, the effect of the new param-eterizations depends on the region considered, with a strong impact over South America (Brazil, Amazonian forest) but a smaller impact over Europe, East Asia and North America. A finer horizontal resolution reduces the representation errors at observation sites near emission hotspots or along the coastlines. In comparison, the sensitivities to the land surface model and to the increased vertical resolution are marginal

Wildfires in Chernobyl-contaminated forests and risks to the population and the environment: A new nuclear disaster about to happen?

International audienceRadioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of 137 Cs. Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during 2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10-170 may be fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of 137 Cs after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the distribution of radioactive fallout after the wildfires occurred to the intensely populated Western Europe, whereas after Fukushima it occurred towards the Pacific Ocean. The situation will be exacerbated near the forests not only due to the expected redistribution of refractory radionuclides (also trapped there), but also due to the nutritional habits of the local human and animal population