Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?

Fluctuations in investor risk aversion are often cited as a factor explaining crises on financial markets. The alternation between periods of bullishness prompting investors to make risky investments, and periods of bearishness, when they retreat to the safest forms of investments, could be at the root of sharp fluctuations in asset prices. One problem in the assessment of these different periods is clearly distinguishing the risk perceived by agents from risk aversion itself. There are several types of risk aversion indicators used by financial institutions (the VIX, the LCVI, the GRAI, etc.). These indices, which are estimated in diverse ways, often show differing developments, although it is not possible to directly assess which is the most accurate. An interesting method in this respect is to link the indicators to financial crises. In principle, financial crises should coincide with periods in which risk aversion increases. Here we estimate probabilities of financial crises –currency and stock market crises– using the different risk aversion indicators as explanatory variables. This allows us to assess their respective predictive powers. The tests carried out show that risk aversion does tend to increase before crises, at least when it is measured by the most relevant indices. This variable is a good leading indicator of stock market crises, but is less so for currency crises.

La brucellose bovine en Afrique Centrale. V. Description d'une méthode d'enquête simplifiée

Les auteurs mettent en évidence la corrélation étroite qui existe entre le taux d'avortements brucelliques annuel moyen (AV MOY) et le pourcentage des vaches présentant ou ayant présenté un hygroma du genou durant les cinq dernières années. (H. GE). Cet hygroma, signe objectif, facile à diagnostiquer, et caractéristique de la brucellose en Afrique centrale est lié à l'avortement, élément de base dans le calcul des pertes économiques, par la relation y (AV MOY) = 0,15 + 0,66 x (H-GE). Il devient dès lors possible, pour un responsable de secteur vétérinaire démuni de moyens en temps et en laboratoire, de statuer sur l'incidence de cette maladie dans sa région et donc sur l'utilité ou la nécessité d'entreprendre un programe de prophylaxi

Lip-reading in remote subjects: An attempt to quantify and separate ingestion, breathing and vocalisation in free-living animals

A new mandibular sensor is presented here based on the use of a Hall sensor, attached to one mandible, opposite a magnet, attached to the other mandible. Changes in sensor voltage, proportional to magnetic field strength, and thus inter-mandibular angle, are recorded in a logger. This system was tested on seven captive Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) and three gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) during: (1) feeding trials on land, where birds were given known quantities and types of food; and (2) trials in water where birds were allowed to swim and dive freely. In addition, six free-living Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) were equipped with the system for single foraging trips. Angular signatures were looked for in instances when both captive and free-living birds might open their beaks, and it was discovered that five major behaviours could be identified: ingestion, breathing, calling, head shaking and preening. Captive feeding trials showed that prey mass could be determined with reasonable accuracy (r 2=0.92), and there was some indication that prey type could be resolved if recording frequency were high enough. Vocalisations in Adélie penguins (arc calls) took <0.7 s for mean maximum beak angles of 4.2° (SD 1.3), and were distinguished by their relatively gradual change in beak angle and by their high degree of symmetry. Beak shakings were distinguishable by their short duration (multiple peaks of <0.5 s) and minimal maximum angle (<0.5°). Preening behaviour was apparent due to multiple decreasing peaks (angles <8°). Breathing could be subdivided into that during porpoising, where a characteristic double peak in beak angle was recorded, and that during normal surface rests between dives. During porpoising, only the primary peak (mean maximum beak angle 25.1°, SD 4.7) occurred when the bird was out of the water (mean maximum for second peak 5.9°, SD 4.1). During normal surface rests in free-living birds, breaths could be distinguished as a series of beak openings and closures, showing variation in amplitude and frequency according to an apparent recovery from the previous dive and preparation for the subsequent dive to come. The mandibular measuring system presented shows considerable promise for elucidating many hitherto intractable aspects of the behaviour of free-living animals

Two-photon double ionization of neon using an intense attosecond pulse train

We present the first demonstration of two-photon double ionization of neon using an intense extreme ultraviolet (XUV) attosecond pulse train (APT) in a photon energy regime where both direct and sequential mechanisms are allowed. For an APT generated through high-order harmonic generation (HHG) in argon we achieve a total pulse energy close to 1 $\mu$J, a central energy of 35 eV and a total bandwidth of $\sim30$ eV. The APT is focused by broadband optics in a neon gas target to an intensity of $3\cdot10^{12}$W$\cdot$cm$^{-2}$. By tuning the photon energy across the threshold for the sequential process the double ionization signal can be turned on and off, indicating that the two-photon double ionization predominantly occurs through a sequential process. The demonstrated performance opens up possibilities for future XUV-XUV pump-probe experiments with attosecond temporal resolution in a photon energy range where it is possible to unravel the dynamics behind direct vs. sequential double ionization and the associated electron correlation effects

Production/maintenance cooperative scheduling using multi-agents and fuzzy logic

Within companies, production is directly concerned with the manufacturing schedule, but other services like sales, maintenance, purchasing or workforce management should also have an influence on this schedule. These services often have together a hierarchical relationship, i.e. the leading function (most of the time sales or production) generates constraints defining the framework within which the other functions have to satisfy their own objectives. We show how the multi-agent paradigm, often used in scheduling for its ability to distribute decision-making, can also provide a framework for making several functions cooperate in the schedule performance. Production and maintenance have been chosen as an example: having common resources (the machines), their activities are actually often conflicting. We show how to use a fuzzy logic in order to model the temporal degrees of freedom of the two functions, and show that this approach may allow one to obtain a schedule that provides a better compromise between the satisfaction of the respective objectives of the two functions

Identification d'une nouvelle salmonelle multirésistante dans une viande de poulet de chair au Sénégal

L'analyse microbiologique d'une carcasse de poulet de chair au Sénégal a permis de mettre en évidence un nouveau sérotype de salmonelle. Celui-ci présente la particularité de posséder deux gènes de résistance aux antibiotiques ; il n'est sensible qu'aux quinolones de dernière génération. L'existence de ce nouveau sérotype est inquiétante parce qu'il a été retrouvé dans des prélèvements humains, associé à de l'hyperthermie et de la diarrhée profuse. L'apparition d'une telle salmonelle peut éventuellement s'expliquer par l'utilisation anarchique des antibiotiques dans l'élevage des volailles. (Résumé d'auteur

Spectroscopic parameters for silacyclopropynylidene, SiC2_2, from extensive astronomical observations toward CW Leo (IRC +10216) with the Herschel satellite

A molecular line survey has been carried out toward the carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch star CW Leo employing the HIFI instrument on board of the Herschel satellite. Numerous features from 480 GHz to beyond 1100 GHz could be assigned unambiguously to the fairly floppy SiC$_2$ molecule. However, predictions from laboratory data exhibited large deviations from the observed frequencies even after some lower frequency data from this survey were incorporated into a fit. Therefore, we present a combined fit of all available laboratory data together with data from radio-astronomical observations.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, J. Mol. Spectrosc., appeared; CDMS links corrected (version 2; current version: 3; may be updated later this year