A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

An intervention to improve outcomes of falls in dementia: the DIFRID mixed-methods feasibility study:A mixed methods study to develop and assess the feasibility of the DIFRID intervention

Background : Fall-related injuries are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in people with dementia (PWD). There is presently little evidence to guide the management of such injuries, and yet there are potentially substantial benefits to be gained if the outcome of these injuries could be improved. This study aimed to design an appropriate new healthcare intervention for PWD following a fall and to assess the feasibility of its delivery in the UK National Health Service. Objective (s): To determine whether it is possible to design an intervention to improve outcomes of falls in dementia; to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of the DIFRID intervention; to investigate the feasibility of a future randomised controlled trial (RCT) and data collection tools needed to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the DIFRID intervention. Design : Mixed-methods feasibility study. Methods : A systematic review (using Cochrane methodology) and realist review (using RAMESES methodology) explored the existing evidence base and developed programme theories. Searches were carried out in Nov 2015 (updated Jan 2018) for effectiveness studies and August 2016 for economic studies. A prospective observational study identified service use via participant diary completion. Qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and observation) were used to explore: current practice; stakeholder perspectives of the health and social care needs of PWD following a fall; ideas for intervention; and barriers and facilitators to change. Each of these datasets informed intervention development, via Delphi consensus methods. Finally, a single-arm feasibility study with embedded process evaluation was conducted. Setting : Community. Participants : PWD presenting with falls needing healthcare attention in each setting at 3 sites and their carers. Professionals delivering the intervention, responsible for training and supervision and members of the intervention team. Professionals responsible for approaching and recruiting participants. Interventions: A complex multidisciplinary therapy intervention. Physiotherapists, occupational therapists, and support workers delivered up to 22 sessions of tailored activities in the PWD’s home or local area over a period of 12 weeks. Main outcome measures: Assessment of feasibility of study procedures; assessment of the acceptability, feasibility and fidelity of intervention components; assessment of suitability and acceptability of outcome measures for PWD and carers (number of falls; quality of life; fear of falling; activities of daily living; goal setting; health utilisation; carer burden). Results : A multidisciplinary intervention delivered in PWDs’ own homes was designed based on qualitative work, realist review and recommendations of the consensus panel. The intervention was delivered to 11 PWD. The study suggested that the intervention is both feasible and acceptable to stakeholders. A number of modifications was recommended to address some of the issues arising during feasibility testing. Measurement of outcome measures was successful. Limitations : Recruitment to the feasibility study was lower than expected and therefore the intervention needs to be tested with a larger number of PWD. Conclusions : The study has highlighted the feasibility of delivering a creative, tailored, individual approach to intervention for PWD following a fall. Although the intervention required greater investment of time than usual practice, many staff valued the opportunity to work more closely with PWD and carers. Future work : We conclude that further research is now needed to refine this intervention in the context of a pilot randomised controlled trial

A study of tuberculosis in road traffic-killed badgers on the edge of the British bovine TB epidemic area

The role of badgers in the geographic expansion of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) epidemic in England is unknown: indeed there have been few published studies of bTB in badgers outside of the Southwest of England where the infection is now endemic in cattle. Cheshire is now on the edge of the expanding area of England in which bTB is considered endemic in cattle. Previous studies, over a decade ago when bovine infection was rare in Cheshire, found no or only few infected badgers in the south eastern area of the county. In this study, carried out in 2014, road-killed badgers were collected through a network of local stakeholders (farmers, veterinarians, wildlife groups, government agencies), and Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from 21% (20/94) badger carcasses. Furthermore, there was strong evidence for co-localisation of M. bovis SB0129 (genotype 25) infection in both badgers and cattle herds at a county scale. While these findings suggest that both badgers and cattle are part of the same geographically expanding epidemic, the direction of any cross-species transmission and the drivers of this expansion cannot be determined. The study also demonstrated the utility of using road-killed badgers collected by stakeholders as a means of wildlife TB surveillance

Meter-Scale, Conditioned Hydrodynamic Optical-Field-Ionized Plasma Channels

We demonstrate through experiments and numerical simulations that low-density, low-loss, meter-scale plasma channels can be generated by employing a conditioning laser pulse to ionize the neutral gas collar surrounding a hydrodynamic optical-field-ionized (HOFI) plasma channel. We use particle-in-cell simulations to show that the leading edge of the conditioning pulse ionizes the neutral gas collar to generate a deep, low-loss plasma channel which guides the bulk of the conditioning pulse itself as well as any subsequently injected pulses. In proof-of-principle experiments we generate conditioned HOFI (CHOFI) waveguides with axial electron densities of $n_\mathrm{e0} \approx 1 \times 10^{17} \; \mathrm{cm^{-3}}$, and a matched spot size of $26 \; \mathrm{\mu m}$. The power attenuation length of these CHOFI channels is $L_\mathrm{att} = (21 \pm 3) \; \mathrm{m}$, more than two orders of magnitude longer than achieved by HOFI channels. Hydrodynamic and particle-in-cell simulations demonstrate that meter-scale CHOFI waveguides with attenuation lengths exceeding 1 m could be generated with a total laser pulse energy of only $1.2$ J per meter of channel. The properties of CHOFI channels are ideally suited to many applications in high-intensity light-matter interactions, including multi-GeV plasma accelerator stages operating at high pulse repetition rates

The use of herbal medicines by people with cancer: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: A large proportion of cancer patients are estimated to use herbal medicines, but data to substantiate this are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of herbal medicine use among cancer patients in the West Midlands, and determine the characteristics predicting herbal medicine use. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of oncology patients (n=1498) being followed up at a hospital in Coventry was undertaken. Recipients were asked about herbal medicine use since their cancer diagnosis, and the association between sociodemographic and cancer-related characteristics and herbal medicine use was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 1134 responses were received (75.7%). The prevalence of herbal medicine use was 19.7% (95% CI: 17.4-22.1; n=223). Users were more likely to be affluent, female, and aged under 50 years. Usage increased with time since cancer diagnosis (X(2) for trend=4.63; P=0.031). A validation data set, derived from a survey of oncology patients in Birmingham (n=541) with differing socioeconomic characteristics showed no significant difference in estimated prevalence (16.6%; 95% CI: 11.9-22.2). CONCLUSION: A substantial number of people with cancer are likely to be taking herbal medicines. Understanding the self-medication behaviours of these individuals is essential if health-care professionals are to support treatment adherence and avoid unwanted pharmacological interactions

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems

Performance of Proximity Loggers in Recording Intra- and Inter-Species Interactions: A Laboratory and Field-Based Validation Study

Knowledge of the way in which animals interact through social networks can help to address questions surrounding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of social organisation, and to understand and manage the spread of infectious diseases. Automated proximity loggers are increasingly being used to record interactions between animals, but the accuracy and reliability of the collected data remain largely un-assessed. Here we use laboratory and observational field data to assess the performance of these devices fitted to a herd of 32 beef cattle (Bos taurus) and nine groups of badgers (Meles meles, n  = 77) living in the surrounding woods. The distances at which loggers detected each other were found to decrease over time, potentially related to diminishing battery power that may be a function of temperature. Loggers were highly accurate in recording the identification of contacted conspecifics, but less reliable at determining contact duration. There was a tendency for extended interactions to be recorded as a series of shorter contacts. We show how data can be manipulated to correct this discrepancy and accurately reflect observed interaction patterns by combining records between any two loggers that occur within a 1 to 2 minute amalgamation window, and then removing any remaining 1 second records. We make universally applicable recommendations for the effective use of proximity loggers, to improve the validity of data arising from future studies

Local is not always better: the impact of climate information on values, behavior and policy support

In the current research, we experimentally examined the effect of providing local or global information about the impacts of climate change on individuals’ perceived importance of climate change and on their willingness to take action to address it, including policy support. We examined these relationships in the context of individuals’ general value orientations. Our findings, from 99 US residents, suggest that different kinds of climate information (local, global, or none) interact with values vis-à-vis our dependent variables. Specifically, while self-transcendent values predict perceived importance and pro-environmental behavior across all three information conditions, the effect on policy support is less clear. Furthermore, we detected a “reactance effect” where individuals with self-enhancing values who read local information thought that climate change was less important and were less willing to engage in pro-environmental behavior and support policy than self-enhancing individuals in the other information conditions. These results suggest that policy makers and public communicators may want to be cognizant of their audience’s general value orientation. Local information may not only be ineffective but may also prove counterproductive with individuals whose value orientations are more self-enhancing than self-transcendent