COX MODELS WITH NONLINEAR EFFECT OF COVARIATES MEASURED WITH ERROR: A CASE STUDY OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE INCIDENCE

We propose, develop and implement the simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) methodology for Cox regression models when the log hazard function is linear in the model parameters but nonlinear in the variables measured with error (LPNE). The class of LPNE functions contains but is not limited to strata indicators, splines, quadratic and interaction terms. The first order bias correction method proposed here has the advantage that it remains computationally feasible even when the number of observations is very large and multiple models need to be explored. Theoretical and simulation results show that the SIMEX method outperforms the naive method even with small amounts of measurement error. Our methodology was motivated by and applied to the study of time to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression as a function of baseline kidney function and applied to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), a large epidemiological cohort stud

Lifetime Risk of Lower-Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease Defined by Ankle-Brachial Index in the United States.

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community-based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index < 0.90, at each year of age from birth to 80 years for white, black, and Hispanic men and women. Then, we used Markov Monte Carlo simulations in a simulated cohort of 100 000 individuals to estimate lifetime risk of PAD. On the basis of odds ratios of PAD for traditional atherosclerotic risk factors (eg, diabetes mellitus and smoking), we developed a calculator providing residual lifetime risk of PAD. In an 80-year horizon, lifetime risks of PAD were 30.0% in black men and 27.6% in black women, but ≈19% in white men and women and ≈22% in Hispanic men and women. From another perspective, 9% of blacks were estimated to develop PAD by 60 years of age, while the same proportion was seen at ≈70 years for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity varied by 3.5- to 5-fold according to risk factors (eg, residual lifetime risk in 45-year-old black men was 19.9% when current smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of cardiovascular disease were absent versus 70.4% when all were present). Conclusions In the United States, ≈30% of blacks are estimated to develop PAD during their lifetime, whereas the corresponding estimate is ≈20% for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity substantially varies according to traditional risk factors

Short-Term Prognostic Impact of Arterial Stiffness in Older Adults Without Prevalent Cardiovascular Disease

Arterial stiffness, represented as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD). In older populations, however, this association seems attenuated. Moreover, the prognostic values of pulse wave velocity at different arterial segments and newer parameters like cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) remain unclear, especially in US older adults. In 3034 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants (66-90 years) without CVD, we examined the associations of 4 pulse wave velocity measures (cfPWV, heart-femoral, brachial-ankle, heart-ankle) and 2 new measures of arterial stiffness (CAVI and cardio-femoral vascular index derived from heart-ankle and heart-femoral, respectively) with incident CVD (coronary disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, there were 168 incident CVD events and 244 deaths. Overall, stiffness measures did not show strong associations with CVD, except cfPWV, which demonstrated a J-shaped association even after adjusting for potential confounders (hazard ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.08-3.09] in top quartile and 1.97 [1.14-3.39] in bottom quartile versus second bottom quartile). When each CVD was examined separately, heart failure was most robustly associated with higher cfPWV, and stroke was strongly associated with lower cfPWV. There were no significant associations with all-cause mortality. Among different measures of pulse wave velocity, cfPWV showed the strongest associations with CVD, especially heart failure, in older adults without CVD. Other pulse wave velocity measures had no strong associations. Our findings further support cfPWV as the index measure of arterial stiffness and the link of arterial stiffness to heart failure development but also suggest somewhat limited prognostic value of arterial stiffness in older adults overall

CKD classification based on estimated GFR over three years and subsequent cardiac and mortality outcomes: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is unknown whether defining chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on one versus two estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) assessments changes the prognostic importance of reduced eGFR in a community-based population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study were classified into 4 groups based on two eGFR assessments separated by 35.3 ± 2.5 months: sustained eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m²(1 mL/sec per 1.73 m²); eGFR increase (change from below to above 60); eGFR decline (change from above to below 60); and eGFR persistently ≥60. Outcomes assessed in stratified multivariable Cox models included cardiac events and a composite of cardiac events, stroke, and mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 891 (4.9%) participants with sustained eGFR < 60, 278 (1.5%) with eGFR increase, 972 (5.4%) with eGFR decline, and 15,925 (88.2%) with sustained eGFR > 60. Participants with eGFR sustained < 60 were at highest risk of cardiac and composite events [HR = 1.38 (1.15, 1.65) and 1.58 (1.41, 1.77)], respectively, followed by eGFR decline [HR = 1.20 (1.00, 1.45) and 1.32 (1.17, 1.49)]. Individuals with eGFR increase trended toward increased cardiac risk [HR = 1.25 (0.88, 1.77)] and did not significantly differ from eGFR decline for any outcome. Results were similar when estimating GFR with the CKD-EPI equation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Individuals with persistently reduced eGFR are at highest risk of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality, while individuals with an eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m²at any time are at intermediate risk. Use of even a single measurement of eGFR to classify CKD in a community population appears to have prognostic value.</p

Comparing the association of GFR estimated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD study equations and mortality: the third national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES III)

BACKGROUND: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR(CKD-EPI)) improves GFR estimation compared with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation (eGFR(MDRD)) but its association with mortality in a nationally representative population sample in the US has not been studied. METHODS: We examined the association between eGFR and mortality among 16,010 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Primary predictors were eGFR(CKD-EPI) and eGFR(MDRD). Outcomes of interest were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Improvement in risk categorization with eGFR(CKD-EPI) was evaluated using adjusted relative hazard (HR) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). RESULTS: Overall, 26.9% of the population was reclassified to higher eGFR categories and 2.2% to lower eGFR categories by eGFR(CKD-EPI,) reducing the proportion of prevalent CKD classified as stage 3–5 from 45.6% to 28.8%(.) There were 3,620 deaths (1,540 from CVD) during 215,082 person-years of follow-up (median, 14.3 years). Among those with eGFR(MDRD) 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 19.4% were reclassified to eGFR(CKD-EPI) 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and these individuals had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96) compared with those not reclassified. Among those with eGFR(MDRD) >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 0.5% were reclassified to lower eGFR(CKD-EPI) and these individuals had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69) and CVD (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99) mortality compared with those not reclassified. Risk prediction improved with eGFR(CKD-EPI); NRI was 0.21 for all-cause mortality (p < 0.001) and 0.22 for CVD mortality (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: eGFR(CKD-EPI) categories improve mortality risk stratification of individuals in the US population. If eGFR(CKD-EPI) replaces eGFR(MDRD) in the US, it will likely improve risk stratification

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Incident ESRD: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Carotid intima-media thickness has been reported to predict kidney function decline. However, whether carotid intima-media thickness is associated with a hard kidney end point, ESRD, has not been investigated

Changes in serum calcium, phosphate, and PTH and the risk of death in incident dialysis patients: A longitudinal study

Elevated bone mineral parameters have been associated with mortality in dialysis patients. There are conflicting data about calcium, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and mortality and few data about changes in bone mineral parameters over time. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1007 incident hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients. We examined longitudinal changes in bone mineral parameters and whether their associations with mortality were independent of time on dialysis, inflammation, and comorbidity. Serum calcium, phosphate, and calcium–phosphate product (CaP) increased in these patients between baseline and 6 months (P<0.001) and then remained stable. Serum PTH decreased over the first year (P<0.001). In Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for inflammation, comorbidity, and other confounders, the highest quartile of phosphate was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.57 (1.07–2.30) using both baseline and time-dependent values. The highest quartiles of calcium, CaP, and PTH were associated with mortality in time-dependent models but not in those using baseline values. The lowest quartile of PTH was associated with an HR of 0.65 (0.44–0.98) in the time-dependent model with 6-month lag analysis. We conclude that high levels of phosphate both at baseline and over follow-up are associated with mortality in incident dialysis patients. High levels of calcium, CaP, and PTH are associated with mortality immediately preceding an event. Promising new interventions need to be rigorously tested in clinical trials for their ability to achieve normalization of bone mineral parameters and reduce deaths of dialysis patients

Chronic kidney-disease screening service quality: questionnaire survey research evidence from Taichung city

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a serious public health problem in Taiwan and the world. The most effective, affordable treatments involve early prevention/detection/intervention, requiring screening. Successfully implementing CKD programs requires good patient participation, affected by patient perceptions of screening service quality. Service quality improvements can help make such programs more successful. Thus, good tools for assessing service quality perceptions are important. Aim: to investigate using a modified SERVQUAL questionnaire in assessing patient expectations, perceptions, and loyalty towards kidney disease screening service quality.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>1595 kidney disease screening program patients in Taichung City were requested to complete and return a modified kidney disease screening SERVQUAL questionnaire. 1187 returned them. Incomplete ones (102) were culled and 1085 were chosen as effective for use. Paired t-tests, correlation tests, ANOVA, LSD test, and factor analysis identified the characteristics and factors of service quality. The paired t-test tested expectation score and perception score gaps. A structural equation modeling system examined satisfaction-based components' relationships.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The effective response rate was 91.4%. Several methods verified validity. Cronbach's alpha on internal reliability was above 0.902. On patient satisfaction, expectation scores are high: 6.50 (0.82), but perception scores are significantly lower 6.14 (1.02). Older patients' perception scores are lower than younger patients'. Expectation and perception scores for patients with different types of jobs are significantly different. Patients higher on education have lower scores for expectation (r = -0.09) and perception (r = -0.26). Factor analysis identified three factors in the 22 item SERVQUAL form, which account for 80.8% of the total variance for the expectation scores and 86.9% of the total variance for the satisfaction scores. Expectation and perception score gaps in all 22 items are significant. The goodness-of-fit summary of the SEM results indicates that expectations and perceptions are positively correlated, perceptions and loyalty are positively correlated, but expectations and loyalty are not positively correlated.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of this research suggest that the SERVQUAL instrument is a useful measurement tool in assessing and monitoring service quality in kidney disease screening services, enabling the staff to identify where service improvements are needed from the patients' perspectives.</p

Does oral sodium bicarbonate therapy improve function and quality of life in older patients with chronic kidney disease and low-grade acidosis (the BiCARB trial)? Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Date of acceptance: 01/07/2015 © 2015 Witham et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. Acknowledgements UK NIHR HTA grant 10/71/01. We acknowledge the financial support of NHS Research Scotland in conducting this trial.Peer reviewedPublisher PD