Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Conservative management versus open reduction and internal fixation for mid-shaft clavicle fractures in adults - The Clavicle Trial: Study protocol for a multicentre randomized controlled trial

Background: Clavicle fractures account for around 4% of all fractures and up to 44% of fractures of the shoulder girdle. Fractures of the middle third (or mid-shaft) account for approximately 80% of all clavicle fractures. Management of this group of fractures is often challenging and the outcome can be unsatisfactory. In particular it is not clear whether surgery produces better outcomes than non-surgical management. Currently there is much variation in the use of surgery and a lack of good quality evidence to inform our decision.Methods/Design: We aim to undertake a multicentre randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness and safety of conservative management versus open reduction and internal fixation for displaced mid-shaft clavicle fractures in adults. Surgical treatment will be performed using the Acumed clavicle fixation system. Conservative management will consist of immobilisation in a sling at the side in internal rotation for 6 weeks or until clinical or radiological union. We aim to recruit 300 patients. These patients will be followed-up for at least 9 months. The primary endpoint will be the rate of non-union at 3 months following treatment. Secondary endpoints will be limb function measured using the Constant-Murley Score and the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) Score at 3 and 9 months post-operatively.Discussion: This article presents the protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial. It gives extensive details of, and the basis for, the chosen methods, and describes the key measures taken to avoid bias and to ensure validity.Trial Registration: United Kingdom Clinical Research Network ID: 8665. The date of registration of the trial is 07/09/2006. The date the first patient was recruited is 18/12/2007. © 2011 Longo et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Helical Chirality: a Link between Local Interactions and Global Topology in DNA

DNA supercoiling plays a major role in many cellular functions. The global DNA conformation is however intimately linked to local DNA-DNA interactions influencing both the physical properties and the biological functions of the supercoiled molecule. Juxtaposition of DNA double helices in ubiquitous crossover arrangements participates in multiple functions such as recombination, gene regulation and DNA packaging. However, little is currently known about how the structure and stability of direct DNA-DNA interactions influence the topological state of DNA. Here, a crystallographic analysis shows that due to the intrinsic helical chirality of DNA, crossovers of opposite handedness exhibit markedly different geometries. While right-handed crossovers are self-fitted by sequence-specific groove-backbone interaction and bridging Mg2+ sites, left-handed crossovers are juxtaposed by groove-groove interaction. Our previous calculations have shown that the different geometries result in differential stabilisation in solution, in the presence of divalent cations. The present study reveals that the various topological states of the cell are associated with different inter-segmental interactions. While the unstable left-handed crossovers are exclusively formed in negatively supercoiled DNA, stable right-handed crossovers constitute the local signature of an unusual topological state in the cell, such as the positively supercoiled or relaxed DNA. These findings not only provide a simple mechanism for locally sensing the DNA topology but also lead to the prediction that, due to their different tertiary intra-molecular interactions, supercoiled molecules of opposite signs must display markedly different physical properties. Sticky inter-segmental interactions in positively supercoiled or relaxed DNA are expected to greatly slow down the slithering dynamics of DNA. We therefore suggest that the intrinsic helical chirality of DNA may have oriented the early evolutionary choices for DNA topology

A Knowledge Graph Enhanced Learner Model to Predict Outcomes to Questions in the Medical Field

International audienceThe training curriculum for medical doctors requires the intensive and rapid assimilation of a lot of knowledge. To help medical students optimize their learning path, the SIDES 3.0 national French project aims to extend an existing platform with intelligent learning services. This platform contains a large number of annotated learning resources, from training and evaluation questions to students' learning traces, available as an RDF knowledge graph. In order for the platform to provide personalized learning services, the knowledge and skills progressively acquired by students on each subject should be taken into account when choosing the training and evaluation questions to be presented to them, in the form of customized quizzes. To achieve such recommendation , a first step lies in the ability to predict the outcome of students when answering questions (success or failure). With this objective in mind, in this paper we propose a model of the students' learning on the SIDES platform, able to make such predictions. The model extends a state-of-the-art approach to fit the specificity of medical data, and to take into account additional knowledge extracted from the OntoSIDES knowledge graph in the form of graph embeddings. Through an evaluation based on learning traces for pediatrics and cardiovascular specialties, we show that considering the vector representations of answers, questions and students nodes substantially improves the prediction results compared to baseline models

Serological Testing Versus Other Strategies for Diagnosis of Active Tuberculosis in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

This cost-effectiveness study shows that sputum smear microscopy is the most cost-effective test for active tuberculosis (TB) in India, and liquid culture plus microscopy is more cost-effective for TB diagnosis than serological tests

Biomarkers for Clinical and Incipient Tuberculosis: Performance in a TB-Endemic Country

Simple biomarkers are required to identify TB in both HIV(-)TB(+) and HIV(+)TB(+) patients. Earlier studies have identified the M. tuberculosis Malate Synthase (MS) and MPT51 as immunodominant antigens in TB patients. One goal of these investigations was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of anti-MS and -MPT51 antibodies as biomarkers for TB in HIV(-)TB(+) and HIV(+)TB(+) patients from a TB-endemic setting. Earlier studies also demonstrated the presence of these biomarkers during incipient subclinical TB. If these biomarkers correlate with incipient TB, their prevalence should be higher in asymptomatic HIV(+) subjects who are at a high-risk for TB. The second goal was to compare the prevalence of these biomarkers in asymptomatic, CD4(+) T cell-matched HIV(+)TB(-) subjects from India who are at high-risk for TB with similar subjects from US who are at low-risk for TB.Anti-MS and -MPT51 antibodies were assessed in sera from 480 subjects including PPD(+) or PPD(-) healthy subjects, healthy community members, and HIV(-)TB(+) and HIV(+)TB(+) patients from India. Results demonstrate high sensitivity (approximately 80%) of detection of smear-positive HIV(-)TB(+) and HIV(+)TB(+) patients, and high specificity (>97%) with PPD(+) subjects and endemic controls. While approximately 45% of the asymptomatic HIV(+)TB(-) patients at high-risk for TB tested biomarker-positive, >97% of the HIV(+)TB(-) subjects at low risk for TB tested negative. Although the current studies are hampered by lack of knowledge of the outcome, these results provide strong support for the potential of these biomarkers to detect incipient, subclinical TB in HIV(+) subjects.These biomarkers provide high sensitivity and specificity for TB diagnosis in a TB endemic setting. Their performance is not compromised by concurrent HIV infection, site of TB and absence of pulmonary manifestations in HIV(+)TB(+) patients. Results also demonstrate the potential of these biomarkers for identifying incipient subclinical TB in HIV(+)TB(-) subjects at high-risk for TB

Four models of HIV counseling and testing: utilization and test results in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: HIV Counseling and Testing (HCT) is the point-of-entry for pathways of HIV care and prevention. However, HCT is not reaching many who are HIV infected and this may be related to the HCT provision model. We describe HCT utilization and HIV diagnosis using four models of HCT delivery: clinic-based, urban mobile, rural mobile, and stand-alone. METHODS: Using cross-sectional data from routine HCT provided in South Africa, we described client characteristics and HIV test results from information collected during service delivery between January 2009 and June 2012. RESULTS: 118,358 clients received services at clinic-based units, 18,597; stand-alone, 28,937; urban mobile, 38,840; and rural mobile, 31,984. By unit, clients were similar in terms of median age (range 28-31), but differed in sex distribution, employment status, prior testing, and perceived HIV risk. Urban mobile units had the highest proportion of male clients (52%). Rural mobile units reached the highest proportion of clients with no prior HCT (61%) and reporting no perceived HIV risk (64%). Overall, 10,862 clients (9.3%) tested HIV-positive. CONCLUSIONS: Client characteristics varied by HCT model. Importantly, rural and urban mobile units reached more men, first-time testers, and clients who considered themselves to be at low risk for HIV