How Systems Analysts Can Provide More Effective Assistance to the Policy Maker

Policy makers do not benefit from advances in (a) systems analysis or (b) judgement and decision theory because neither of these disciplines recognize the incompleteness of its methodology. A complete methodology requires a synthesis of the two. This RM explains why such a synthesis is necessary, describes how it can be achieved, and provides a worked-out example of its application to the problem of changing sources of energy production in the US. The example also illustrates that the linkage of systems analysis and judgement theory provides information that neither discipline can provide separately. Finally, the RM shows that such information is policy relevant and that it provides more effective assistance to the policy maker than does either approach used separately

Kinetics of Ordering in Fluctuation-Driven First-Order Transitions: Simulations and Dynamical Renormalization

Many systems where interactions compete with each other or with constraints are well described by a model first introduced by Brazovskii. Such systems include block copolymers, alloys with modulated phases, Rayleigh-Benard Cells and type-I superconductors. The hallmark of this model is that the fluctuation spectrum is isotropic and has a minimum at a nonzero wave vector represented by the surface of a d-dimensional hyper-sphere. It was shown by Brazovskii that the fluctuations change the free energy structure from a $\phi ^{4}$ to a $\phi ^{6}$ form with the disordered state metastable for all quench depths. The transition from the disordered to the periodic, lamellar structure changes from second order to first order and suggests that the dynamics is governed by nucleation. Using numerical simulations we have confirmed that the equilibrium free energy function is indeed of a $\phi ^{6}$ form. A study of the dynamics, however, shows that, following a deep quench, the dynamics is described by unstable growth rather than nucleation. A dynamical calculation, based on a generalization of the Brazovskii calculations shows that the disordered state can remain unstable for a long time following the quench.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figures submitted to PR

Reconfigurable microfluidic circuits for isolating and retrieving cells of interest

Microfluidic devices are widely used in many fields of biology, but a key limitation is that cells are typically surrounded by solid walls, making it hard to access those that exhibit a specific phenotype for further study. Here, we provide a general and flexible solution to this problem that exploits the remarkable properties of microfluidic circuits with fluid walls─transparent interfaces between culture media and an immiscible fluorocarbon that are easily pierced with pipets. We provide two proofs of concept in which specific cell subpopulations are isolated and recovered: (i) murine macrophages chemotaxing toward complement component 5a and (ii) bacteria (Pseudomonas aeruginosa) in developing biofilms that migrate toward antibiotics. We build circuits in minutes on standard Petri dishes, add cells, pump in laminar streams so molecular diffusion creates attractant gradients, acquire time-lapse images, and isolate desired subpopulations in real time by building fluid walls around migrating cells with an accuracy of tens of micrometers using 3D printed adaptors that convert conventional microscopes into wall-building machines. Our method allows live cells of interest to be easily extracted from microfluidic devices for downstream analyses

Stress corrosion cracking in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu aluminum alloys in saline environments

Copyright 2013 ASM International. This paper was published in Metallurgical and Materials Transactions A, 44A(3), 1230 - 1253, and is made available as an electronic reprint with the permission of ASM International. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplications of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of this paper are prohibited.Stress corrosion cracking of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu (AA7xxx) aluminum alloys exposed to saline environments at temperatures ranging from 293 K to 353 K (20 °C to 80 °C) has been reviewed with particular attention to the influences of alloy composition and temper, and bulk and local environmental conditions. Stress corrosion crack (SCC) growth rates at room temperature for peak- and over-aged tempers in saline environments are minimized for Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys containing less than ~8 wt pct Zn when Zn/Mg ratios are ranging from 2 to 3, excess magnesium levels are less than 1 wt pct, and copper content is either less than ~0.2 wt pct or ranging from 1.3 to 2 wt pct. A minimum chloride ion concentration of ~0.01 M is required for crack growth rates to exceed those in distilled water, which insures that the local solution pH in crack-tip regions can be maintained at less than 4. Crack growth rates in saline solution without other additions gradually increase with bulk chloride ion concentrations up to around 0.6 M NaCl, whereas in solutions with sufficiently low dichromate (or chromate), inhibitor additions are insensitive to the bulk chloride concentration and are typically at least double those observed without the additions. DCB specimens, fatigue pre-cracked in air before immersion in a saline environment, show an initial period with no detectible crack growth, followed by crack growth at the distilled water rate, and then transition to a higher crack growth rate typical of region 2 crack growth in the saline environment. Time spent in each stage depends on the type of pre-crack (“pop-in” vs fatigue), applied stress intensity factor, alloy chemistry, bulk environment, and, if applied, the external polarization. Apparent activation energies (E a) for SCC growth in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys exposed to 0.6 M NaCl over the temperatures ranging from 293 K to 353 K (20 °C to 80 °C) for under-, peak-, and over-aged low-copper-containing alloys (~0.8 wt pct), they are typically ranging from 20 to 40 kJ/mol for under- and peak-aged alloys, and based on limited data, around 85 kJ/mol for over-aged tempers. This means that crack propagation in saline environments is most likely to occur by a hydrogen-related process for low-copper-containing Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys in under-, peak- and over-aged tempers, and for high-copper alloys in under- and peak-aged tempers. For over-aged high-copper-containing alloys, cracking is most probably under anodic dissolution control. Future stress corrosion studies should focus on understanding the factors that control crack initiation, and insuring that the next generation of higher performance Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys has similar longer crack initiation times and crack propagation rates to those of the incumbent alloys in an over-aged condition where crack rates are less than 1 mm/month at a high stress intensity factor

Trophic level determinants of biomass accumulation in marine ecosystems

Metrics representative of key ecosystem processes are required for monitoring and understanding system dynamics, as a function of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). Useful properties of such indicators should include the ability to capture the range of variation in ecosystem responses to a range of pressures, including anthropogenic (e.g. exploitation pressures) and environmental (e.g. climate pressures), as well as indirect effects (e.g. those related to food web processes). Examining modifications in ecological processes induced by structural changes, however, requires caution because of the inherent uncertainty, long feedback times, and highly nonlinear ecosystem responses to external perturbations. Yet trophodynamic indicators are able to capture important changes in marine ecosystem function as community structures have been altered. One promising family of such metrics explores the changing biomass accumulation in the middle trophic levels (TLs) of marine ecosystems. Here we compared cumulative biomass curves across TLs for a range of northern hemisphere temperate and boreal ecosystems. Our results confirm that sigmoidal patterns are consistent across different ecosystems and, on a broad scale, can be used to detect factors that most influence shifts in the cumulative biomass−TL curves. We conclude that the sigmoidal relationship of biomass accumulation curves over TLs could be another possible indicator useful for the implementation of EBFM

Metacognition and lifelong e-learning: a contextual and cyclical process

Metacognition is arguably an important conceptualisation within the area of lifelong e- learning, with many theorists and practitioners claiming that it enhances the learning process. However, the lifelong, cyclical and flexible aspects of 'before', 'during' and 'after' metacognitions within lifelong e-learning (inclusive of whether an 'input' necessarily leads to a completed 'output') seem marginal within current areas of practical and theoretical debate. This article analyses Reeves's (1997) model of web-based learning in the context of the ADAPT project; a study of lifelong learners based in small and medium sized enterprises. The article focuses upon an analysis of this model's view of metacognition, and in the light of the project findings and literature review, aims to put forward an extended and expanded version of the model with reference to lifelong e-learnin

Influence of Grain Boundary Character on Creep Void Formation in Alloy 617

Alloy 617, a high temperature creep-resistant, nickel-based alloy, is being considered for the primary heat exchanger for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) which will operate at temperatures exceeding 760oC. Orientation imaging microscopy (OIM) is used to characterize the grain boundaries in the vicinity of creep voids that develop during high temperature creep tests (800-1000oC at creep stresses ranging from 20-85 MPa) terminated at creep strains ranging from 5-40%. Observations using optical microscopy indicate creep rate does not significantly influence the creep void fraction at a given creep strain. Preliminary analysis of the OIM data indicates voids tend to form on grain boundaries parallel, perpendicular or 45o to the tensile axis, while few voids are found at intermediate inclinations to the tensile axis. Random grain boundaries intersect most voids while CSL-related grain boundaries did not appear to be consistently associated with void development

A CHIME/FRB Study of Burst Rate and Morphological Evolution of the Periodically Repeating FRB 20180916B

FRB 20180916B is a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) with a 16.3 day periodicity in its activity. In this study, we present morphological properties of 60 FRB 20180916B bursts detected by CHIME/FRB between 2018 August and 2021 December. We recorded raw voltage data for 45 of these bursts, enabling microseconds time resolution in some cases. We studied variation of spectro-temporal properties with time and activity phase. We find that the variation in dispersion measure (DM) is ≲1 pc cm−3 and that there is burst-to-burst variation in scattering time estimates ranging from ∼0.16 to over 2 ms, with no discernible trend with activity phase for either property. Furthermore, we find no DM and scattering variability corresponding to the recent change in rotation measure from the source, which has implications for the immediate environment of the source. We find that FRB 20180916B has thus far shown no epochs of heightened activity as have been seen in other active repeaters by CHIME/FRB, with its burst count consistent with originating from a Poissonian process. We also observe no change in the value of the activity period over the duration of our observations and set a 1σ upper limit of 1.5 × 10−4 day day−1 on the absolute period derivative. Finally, we discuss constraints on progenitor models yielded by our results, noting that our upper limits on changes in scattering and DM as a function of phase do not support models invoking a massive binary companion star as the origin of the 16.3 day periodicity.</p