The impact of devegetated dune fields on North American climate during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America

Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent north american droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the 'Dust Bowl') and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought

Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models

Binary black hole initial data from matched asymptotic expansions

We present an approximate metric for a binary black hole spacetime to construct initial data for numerical relativity. This metric is obtained by asymptotically matching a post-Newtonian metric for a binary system to a perturbed Schwarzschild metric for each hole. In the inner zone near each hole, the metric is given by the Schwarzschild solution plus a quadrupolar perturbation corresponding to an external tidal gravitational field. In the near zone, well outside each black hole but less than a reduced wavelength from the center of mass of the binary, the metric is given by a post-Newtonian expansion including the lowest-order deviations from flat spacetime. When the near zone overlaps each inner zone in a buffer zone, the post-Newtonian and perturbed Schwarzschild metrics can be asymptotically matched to each other. By demanding matching (over a 4-volume in the buffer zone) rather than patching (choosing a particular 2-surface in the buffer zone), we guarantee that the errors are small in all zones. The resulting piecewise metric is made formally $C^\infty$ with smooth transition functions so as to obtain the finite extrinsic curvature of a 3-slice. In addition to the metric and extrinsic curvature, we present explicit results for the lapse and the shift, which can be used as initial data for numerical simulations. This initial data is not accurate all the way to the asymptotically flat ends inside each hole, and therefore must be used with evolution codes which employ black hole excision rather than puncture methods. This paper lays the foundations of a method that can be sraightforwardly iterated to obtain initial data to higher perturbative order.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figures. Replaced with published version. Major editing of text, no major change to the physic

The Inclusion of self-assessment in merit evaluation

The purpose of this survey study was to collect faculty perceptions toward changes made to the faculty merit evaluation process in a college of education at a state comprehensive university. The changes in the evaluation occurred over a two-year period, where a formative rubric and faculty self-assessment were incorporated into the merit instrument. The sampling frame for the study included the college of education faculty members at the university. The data for the study were collected in two different phases using a field-tested online survey that was created to collect the faculty perceptions of the newly developed instrument and process for completing the merit evaluation. The data collected from the surveys were analyzed using nonparametric tests and qualitative textual analysis. Findings from the study indicated favorable perceptions of the new merit evaluation and only a limited number of differences among the demographic groups

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks

Effects of Simulated Altitude on Maximal Oxygen Uptake and Inspiratory Fitness

International Journal of Exercise Science 10(1): 128-136, 2017 Aerobic exercise at altitude has shown an increase in maximal oxygen uptake. Similar effects have been replicated by way of simulated altitude training, which have influenced various advances in the field of exercise science. Elevation Training Masks© (ETM) claim to stimulate cardiorespiratory fitness improvements similar to training at altitude, however, there is little research to support this claim. The purpose of this study was to research the effect that a hypoxia-inducing mask would have on cardiorespiratory fitness and pulmonary function through the use of a high intensity interval training (HIIT) running program. Seventeen subjects were randomized into either the control group, without the mask, or experimental group, with the mask, and participated in a 6-week HIIT protocol of 4 sessions per week. Each session included a warm up, followed by intervals of running at 80% of their heart rate reserve (HRR) for 90 seconds and followed by 3 minutes of active rest at 50-60% of HRR. A total of 6 intervals were completed per session. Within subjects, there was a significant increase in predicted VO2max (F(1,17)=7.376, P\u3c.05). However, there was no significant difference in predicted VO2max between the control and experimental groups (F(1, 17)=3.669, p= .075). Forced inspiratory vital capacity demonstrated no significant difference within subjects (F(1, 17)= .073, p \u3e .05), or between the two groups (F(1, 17)= 3.724, p= .073). Similar to the VO2max results, forced vital capacity demonstrated a significant increase within subjects (F(1, 17)=6.201, p\u3c.05), but there was no significant difference between the control and experimental groups (F(1,17)=3.562, p= .079). Although the between groups data was not significant, there was a greater increase in the experimental group wearing the ETM compared to the control group not wearing the mask for all 3 variables. Data suggest that HIIT training can be a viable method of improving VO2max and pulmonary function however, training masks such as the ETM may not lead to greater overall improvements