Dynamic Resource Allocation in Conservation Planning

Consider the problem of protecting endangered species by selecting patches of land to be used for conservation purposes. Typically, the availability of patches changes over time, and recommendations must be made dynamically. This is a challenging prototypical example of a sequential optimization problem under uncertainty in computational sustainability. Existing techniques do not scale to problems of realistic size. In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for adaptively making recommendations for dynamic conservation planning, and prove that it obtains near-optimal performance. We further evaluate our approach on a detailed reserve design case study of conservation planning for three rare species in the Pacific Northwest of the United States

CHROMIC AND IRON OXIDES AS FECAL MARKERS TO IDENTIFY INDIVIDUAL WHOOPING CRANES

The whooping crane (Grus americana) is listed as endangered under the IUCN Red List, the United States Endangered Species Act, and the Canadian Species at Risk Act (BirdLife International 2012, CWS and USFWS 2007). A major focus of recovery efforts for this endangered species is reintroduction to establish new populations (CWS and USFWS 2007). Captive populations are critical as a source of individuals for reintroduction efforts and also serve as insurance populations. Currently, there are a total of 157 whooping cranes held in captive breeding centers across North America, with the largest at the USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC) in Laurel, Maryland. Birds produced in this facility are currently being released as part of efforts to establish the Eastern Migratory Population (EMP, Urbanek et al. 2005) and in an effort to establish a non-migratory population in Louisiana. In the past decade, PWRC has produced and released annually an average of 18 birds into the wild; however, reproductive performance of birds at this facility is lower than desired. PWRC had a 60% fertility rate for eggs laid from 2000 through 2010 (J. N. Chandler, personal communication, 2011). Furthermore, reproductive onset in this captive population appears to be delayed compared to wild populations. In wild populations, reproductive onset (production of sperm and eggs) normally occurs ~5 years of age in both males and females, ~2 years after initial pair formation occurs (Ellis et al., 1996), while some females in the EMP have laid eggs earlier than 5 years of age (Converse et al. 2011). However, PWRC females in some cases do not start to lay eggs until 7 years of age (Mirande et al. 1996). Currently, the PWRC population consists of a total of 74 whooping cranes, including 22 pairs. Six of these pairs (27%) are consistently infertile (i.e., no production of fertile eggs) and 3 other pairs (14%) have low fertility (30- 45% fertility in eggs laid), which is variable from year to year. Six pairs (27%) are recently formed and have not produced eggs, and so have unknown fertility. This leaves only 7 pairs (33%) which contribute maximally to PWRC’s chick production (J. N. Chandler, personal communication, 2011). Because of the challenges occurring within this captive colony, PWRC and Smithsonian National Zoo have initiated a joint research project to identify potential underlying causes of poor reproduction in captive whooping cranes

Adaptive Management of Bull Trout Populations in the Lemhi Basin

The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a stream-living salmonid distributed in drainages of the northwestern United States, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of rangewide declines. One proposed recovery action is the reconnection of tributaries in the Lemhi Basin. Past water use policies in this core area disconnected headwater spawning sites from downstream habitat and have led to the loss of migratory life history forms. We developed an adaptive management framework to analyze which types of streams should be prioritized for reconnection under a proposed Habitat Conservation Plan. We developed a Stochastic Dynamic Program that identified optimal policies over time under four different assumptions about the nature of the migratory behavior and the effects of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis on subpopulations of bull trout. In general, given the current state of the system and the uncertainties about the dynamics, the optimal policy would be to connect streams that are currently occupied by bull trout. We also estimated the value of information as the difference between absolute certainty about which of our four assumptions were correct, and a model averaged optimization assuming no knowledge. Overall there is little to be gained by learning about the dynamics of the system in its current state, although in other parts of the state space reducing uncertainties about the system would be very valuable. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis; the optimal decision at the current state does not change even when parameter values are changed up to 75% of the baseline values. Overall, the exercise demonstrates that it is possible to apply adaptive management principles to threatened and endangered species, but logistical and data availability constraints make detailed analyses difficult

Cognitive-Affective Inconsistency and Ambivalence: Impact on the Overall Attitude–Behavior Relationship

This research explored whether overall attitude is a stronger predictor of behavior when underlying cognitive-affective inconsistency or ambivalence is low versus high. Across three prospective studies in different behaviors and populations (Study 1: eating a low-fat diet, N = 136 adults, eating five fruit and vegetables per day, N = 135 adults; Study 2: smoking initiation, N = 4,933 adolescents; and Study 3: physical activity, N = 909 adults) we tested cognitive-affective inconsistency and ambivalence individually and simultaneously as moderators of the overall attitude–behavior relationship. Across studies, more similar effects were observed for inconsistency compared with ambivalence (in both individual and simultaneous analyses). Meta-analysis across studies supported this conclusion with both cognitive-affective inconsistency and ambivalence being significant moderators when considered on their own, but only inconsistency being significant when tested simultaneously. The reported studies highlight the importance of cognitive-affective inconsistency as a determinant of the strength of overall attitude

Honesty above all else? Expectations and perceptions of political conduct in three established democracies

The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the ESRC (grant number RES-000-22-3459) and British Academy (grant numbers SG-101785 and SG-52322). They would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions

Systematic Genetic Nomenclature for Type VII Secretion Systems

CITATION: Bitter, W., et al. 2009. Systematic genetic nomenclature for type VII secretion systems. PLoS Pathogens, 5(10): 1-6, doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000507.The original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plospathogensMycobacteria, such as the etiological agent of human tuberculosis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are protected by an impermeable cell envelope composed of an inner cytoplasmic membrane, a peptidoglycan layer, an arabinogalactan layer, and an outer membrane. This second membrane consists of covalently linked, tightly packed long-chain mycolic acids [1,2] and noncovalently bound shorter lipids involved in pathogenicity [3–5]. To ensure protein transport across this complex cell envelope, mycobacteria use various secretion pathways, such as the SecA1-mediated general secretory pathway [6,7], an alternative SecA2-operated pathway [8], a twin-arginine translocation system [9,10], and a specialized secretion pathway variously named ESAT-6-, SNM-, ESX-, or type VII secretion [11–16]. The latter pathway, hereafter referred to as type VII secretion (T7S), has recently become a large and competitive research topic that is closely linked to studies of host–pathogen interactions of M. tuberculosis [17] and other pathogenic mycobacteria [16]. Molecular details are just beginning to be revealed [18–22] showing that T7S systems are complex machineries with multiple components and multiple substrates. Despite their biological importance, there has been a lack of a clear naming policy for the components and substrates of these systems. As there are multiple paralogous T7S systems within the Mycobacteria and orthologous systems in related bacteria, we are concerned that, without a unified nomenclature system, a multitude of redundant and obscure gene names will be used that will inevitably lead to confusion and hinder future progress. In this opinion piece we will therefore propose and introduce a systematic nomenclature with guidelines for name selection of new components that will greatly facilitate communication and understanding in this rapidly developing field of research.http://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.ppat.1000507Publisher's versio

DEMOGRAPHY OF WHOOPING CRANES IN THE EASTERN MIGRATORY POPULATION

The ultimate success of the whooping crane (Grus americana) reintroduction to eastern North America rests on adequate demographic performance of the population. We are undertaking a population viability analysis (PVA) of the eastern migratory population in order to evaluate progress toward the fundamental population objective, to better understand the critical demographic thresholds that must be met to fulfill this objective, and, most importantly, to support management decision-making. The initial phase in the PVA development process involves estimation of demographic parameters to be used in later population modeling phases. Multi-state models provide an appropriate analytic framework for estimation, wherein individuals move amongst breeding states across years, conditional on survival. We describe estimated survival and breeding state transition probabilities in this population as a function of age, sex, and rearing and release method. We also consider demographic parameters as a function of genetic indicators, which should inform future decisions about breeding and release in the captive flock. The ability to conduct critical demographic analyses in this flock is dependent on ongoing collection of monitoring data. Periodic re-evaluation of both monitoring and modeling methods in the context of management decision-making will be necessary to ensure that management decisions made regarding this flock are informed by the most reliable available information

EVALUATING PROPAGATION METHOD PERFORMANCE OVER TIME WITH BAYESIAN UPDATING: AN APPLICATION TO INCUBATOR TESTING

In captive-rearing programs, small sample sizes can limit the quality of information on performance of propagation methods. Bayesian updating can be used to increase information on method performance over time. We demonstrate an application to incubator testing at USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. A new type of incubator was purchased for use in the whooping crane (Grus americana) propagation program, which produces birds for release. We tested the new incubator for reliability, using sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) eggs as surrogates. We determined that the new incubator should result in hatching rates no more than 5% lower than the available incubators, with 95% confidence, before it would be used to incubate whooping crane eggs. In 2007, 5 healthy chicks hatched from 12 eggs in the new incubator, and 2 hatched from 5 in an available incubator, for a median posterior difference of \u3c1%, but with a large 95% credible interval (-41%, 43%). In 2008, we implemented a double-blind evaluation method, where a veterinarian determined whether eggs produced chicks that, at hatching, had no apparent health problems that would impede future release. We used the 2007 estimates as priors in the 2008 analysis. In 2008, 7 normal chicks hatched from 15 eggs in the new incubator, and 11 hatched from 15 in an available incubator, for a median posterior difference of 19%, with 95% credible interval (-8%, 44%). The increased sample size has increased our understanding of incubator performance. While additional data will be collected, at this time the new incubator does not appear adequate for use with whooping crane eggs

The importance of early life experience and animal cultures in reintroductions

Even within a single population, individuals can display striking differences in behavior, with consequences for their survival and fitness. In reintroduced populations, managers often attempt to promote adaptive behaviors by controlling the early life experiences of individuals, but it remains largely unknown whether this early life training has lasting effects on behavior. We investigated the behavior of reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) trained to migrate using two different methods to see whether their migration behavior remained different or converged over time. We found that the behavior of the two groups converged relatively rapidly, indicating that early life training may not produce lasting effects, especially in species that display lifelong learning and behavioral adaptation. In some cases, managers may consider continual behavioral interventions after release if desired behaviors are not present. Understanding the roles early life experience and animal cultures play in determining behavior is crucial for successful reintroduction programs