Investment decisions with two-factor uncertainty

This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. We derive some analytical properties of the resulting optimal stopping problem and present a finite difference algorithm to approximate the firm’s value function and optimal exercise boundary. An important message in our paper is that the frequently applied quasi-analytical approach underestimates the impact of uncertainty. This is caused by the fact that the quasi-analytical solution does not satisfy the partial differential equation that governs the value function. As a result, the quasi-analytical approach may wrongly advise to invest in a substantial part of the state space

CO2 storage or utilization? A real options analysis under market and technological uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) are considered essential solutions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. A crucial difference between the two is that CCS is already a mature technology, while CCU is still in the R&D phase. Hence, firms are confronted with a dilemma, where they have to choose between either the mature CCS, the emerging CCU, or the installation of both in a Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) system. In this study, we analyze different strategies that the firm can pursue and determine the optimal investment timing. In doing so, we take into account both technological uncertainty, i.e. the unknown time-to-market of CCU, and market uncertainty, i.e. the CO2 price. Three different CCUS value chains in the cement industry are analyzed. We find that the anticipated arrival of profitable CCU technologies in the future does not delay investments in CCS in the current period. Investments in CCS and CCU can be accelerated by reducing the volatility of the CO2 price, or by increasing the growth rate of the CO2 price. Finally, we find that a higher fraction of CO2 emissions that can be used in CCU, results in sooner adoption of CCS today

Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty

This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. We derive some analytical properties of the resulting optimal stopping problem and present a finite difference algorithm to approximate the firm’s value function and optimal exercise boundary. An important message in our paper is that the frequently applied quasi-analytical approach underestimates the impact of uncertainty. This is caused by the fact that the quasi-analytical solution does not satisfy the partial differential equation that governs the value function. As a result, the quasi-analytical approach may wrongly advise to invest in a substantial part of the state space

Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis

Abstract: The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors' flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant's pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results' variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors' flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors' flexibility to optimize the investment's economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment

Bringing the user back in the building:An analysis of ESG in real estate and a behavioral framework to guide future research

Investors are currently obliged to take environment, social, and governance (ESG) issues into consideration as part of their fiduciary duty. As such, it becomes increasingly important to identify sustainable investments that also hold financial value. A sector where this is especially underdeveloped is real estate. This has a lot to do with the obfuscated conceptualization of ESG. The article identifies key gaps in the literature and practice and provides a framework to further the understanding of how ESG factors can add societal and financial value in the real estate sector. A key premise of the article is that the user in the building is grossly overlooked. Drawing on insights from behavioral social science and environmental psychology, the paper explains the role of the user in improving buildings’ ESG, also taking into account the investment value. To conclude, the article makes the case that the transition to user-centered smart real estate is the solution to improving both the environmental (E) and social (S) sustainability of buildings, as well as their investment value. Therefore, practitioners and academics are encouraged to critically evaluate and contextualize the ESG framework they are using as well as the extent to which users are considered and smart technology is employed