Principal sequence pattern analysis: A new approach to classifying the evolution of atmospheric systems

A new eigentechnique approach, Principal Sequence Pattern Analysis (PSPA), is introduced for the analysis of spatial pattern sequence, as an extension of the traditional Principal Component Analysis set in the T-Mode. In this setting, the variables are sequences of k spatial fields of a given meteorological variable. PSPA is described and applied to a sample of 256 consecutive daily 1000 hPa geopotential height fields. The results of the application of the technique to 5-day sequences demonstrate the advantages of this procedure in identifying field pattern sequences, thereby allowing the determination of the evolution and development of the systems, together with cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis processes. In order to complete the study, the more traditional Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analysis, which is the S-mode equivalent of the PSPA, was applied to the same dataset. For EEOF, it was not possible to identify any real sequences that could correspond to the sequences of patterns yielded by the EEOF. Furthermore, the explained variance distribution in the EEOF was significantly different from that obtained with PSPA. Conversely, the PSPA approach allowed for the identification of the sequences corresponding to those sequences observed in the data. Using diagrams of the squares of the component loadings values, as a function of time, the study of the times of occurrence of dominant field characteristics was also possible. In other words, successful determination of periods where the basic flow was dominant and times when strongly perturbed transient events with a significant meridional component occurred, was facilitated by PSPA.Laboratorio de Investigación de Sistemas Ecológicos y Ambientale

Principal sequence pattern analysis: A new approach to classifying the evolution of atmospheric systems

A new eigentechnique approach, Principal Sequence Pattern Analysis (PSPA), is introduced for the analysis of spatial pattern sequence, as an extension of the traditional Principal Component Analysis set in the T-Mode. In this setting, the variables are sequences of k spatial fields of a given meteorological variable. PSPA is described and applied to a sample of 256 consecutive daily 1000 hPa geopotential height fields. The results of the application of the technique to 5-day sequences demonstrate the advantages of this procedure in identifying field pattern sequences, thereby allowing the determination of the evolution and development of the systems, together with cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis processes. In order to complete the study, the more traditional Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analysis, which is the S-mode equivalent of the PSPA, was applied to the same dataset. For EEOF, it was not possible to identify any real sequences that could correspond to the sequences of patterns yielded by the EEOF. Furthermore, the explained variance distribution in the EEOF was significantly different from that obtained with PSPA. Conversely, the PSPA approach allowed for the identification of the sequences corresponding to those sequences observed in the data. Using diagrams of the squares of the component loadings values, as a function of time, the study of the times of occurrence of dominant field characteristics was also possible. In other words, successful determination of periods where the basic flow was dominant and times when strongly perturbed transient events with a significant meridional component occurred, was facilitated by PSPA.Laboratorio de Investigación de Sistemas Ecológicos y Ambientale

Identificación de áreas de homogeneidad estadística para los caudales de ríos andinos argentinos y su relación con la circulación atmosférica y la temperatura superficial del mar Identification of statistical homogeneous areas for argentinean andean river flows and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures

El presente trabajo se centra en localizar las distintas regiones a lo largo de la Cordillera de los Andes sobre las cuales el comportamiento de los caudales de los ríos involucrados muestran homogeneidades estadísticas, estudiando además su vinculación con las condiciones de Temperatura de la Superficie del Mar y Circulación Atmosférica. Se define un índice lineal de correlación corregido, utilizado como medida de distancia en un Análisis de Componentes Principales. Las primeras dos Componentes permiten identificar dos regiones independientes que explican la mayor variabilidad. Estas regiones abarcan: I) desde el río Neuquén hasta el río Senguer y II) desde el río Jachal hasta el río Colorado. La región I presenta un régimen de doble máximo de caudal en invierno-primavera, mientras que la región II se caracteriza por un máximo en verano. Esta última estaría íntimamente ligada a los patrones del ciclo El Niño / Oscilación Sur. Las diferencias más relevantes de la circulación asociada a los extremos de caudal en la región I con respecto a la II serían: 1) el corrimiento de los sistemas de circulación hacia mayores latitudes, 2) la mayor relevancia de los sistemas de latitudes medias, 3) la menor importancia de los ubicados sobre el Pasaje de Drake y 4) la presencia en altura de un tren de ondas estacionarias de menor longitud que atraviesa el continente por latitudes subtropicales provenientes del Pacífico central en dirección NO-SE.<br>The purpose of this paper is to locate the different regions in Los Andes mountain range on which the behavior of the flows of the involved rivers shows statistical homogeneities, studying also their entailment with sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. A corrected correlation linear index is defined and used as a distance measurement in a Principal Component Analysis. The first two Components identify two independent regions that explain the greater variability. These regions include: I) the area from the Neuquén River to the Senguer River and II) the area from the Jachal River to the Colorado River. Region I shows a double maximum regime of flow in winter-spring, whereas Region II is characterized by a maximum in summer. The last one would be closely related to the El Niño / Southern Oscillation patterns. The most relevant differences in the associated circulation to volume extremes of the Regions I and whit respect to the Region II would be: 1) the displacement of the circulation systems towards higher latitudes, 2) the greater relevance of the middle latitude systems, 3) the smaller importance of the systems located on the Drake Passage and 4) the presence at 500 hPa of a smaller longitude stationary waves train that crosses the continent at subtropical latitudes coming from the central Pacific in NW-SE direction

Simulación de la pequeña edad de hielo usando el modelo EdGCM

La Pequeña Edad de Hielo fue un período frío que abarcó desde mediados del siglo XIV hasta mediados del siglo XIX. Durante ese tiempo ocurrieron tres pulsos de temperaturas extremadamente bajas. En el presente trabajo se analiza el segundo de ellos denominado Mínimo de Maunder (MM) que ocurrió entre 1645 y 1715. La disminución de la actividad solar, el aumento de la actividad volcánica y el cambio en las concentraciones de Dióxido de Carbono fueron sus principales forzantes. Mediante el Modelo de Circulación General EdGCM se realizan distintas simulaciones de las condiciones climáticas, con el fin de obtener escenarios de respuesta de la temperatura y la circulación atmosférica a los cambios producidos en la irradiancia y los gases invernadero, en especial del CO2. A su vez, son calculadas por medio de los re-análisis del NCEP/NCAR, las diferencias climáticas entre años de máxima y minima irradiancia a fin de compararlas con las diferencias ocurridas entre las condiciones actuales y del MM dadas por el modelo. Las anomalías anuales de temperatura, entre el MM y las condiciones de fines del siglo XX, son negativas para ambos hemisferios y las anomalías de temperatura resultan más intensas para el semestre frío. Además, sobre Sudamérica, se observa un centro más intenso en latitudes subtropicales y desde el centro hasta el sur de Patagonia. El patrón de enfriamiento simulado por el modelo concuerda, en algunos casos aún en magnitud, con la información de proxy datos de algunas regiones de Sudamérica. La componente zonal del oeste se muestra desplazada hacia menores latitudes durante el MM. Los campos de anomalías de circulación atmosférica simulados para el MM, muestran un patrón, en latitudes medias y altas, en que alternan tres ó cuatro centros positivos con negativos, el cual concuerda con una mayor componente meridional del flujo. Ambos resultan patrones parecidos con los que ocurren actualmente durante eventos El Niño.<br>The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a cold period that ranged from taken part of the century XIV until taken part of the century XIX. In the period occurred three pulses of minimum values of temperature and will study the second of them comprised between 1645-1715 designated Maunder Minimum (MM). The decrease of the solar activity, the increase of the volcanic activity and the change in the Carbon Dioxide concentrations were the main forcings during these periods. In present work we realize distinct simulations of the climatic conditions for the South Hemisphere, by means of the General Circulation Model EdGCM, with the end to obtain stages of answer to the changes of irradiance and CO2 for the MM. At the same time, the climatic differences between years of maxima and minimum values of sunshine during the century XX determined by means of the results of the re-analysis of the NCEP/NCAR, compare with the differences between the current conditions and the ones of the MM, simulated by the model. The anomalies between the XX century and the MM obtained with the EdGCM are in agree qualitatively, and also quantitatively in some locations, with the proxy data information for various regions of the Hemisphere South. The annual temperature anomalies, between the MM and the 20th century ending conditions, are negative for both hemispheres and the temperature anomalies result more intense on semester November-April. Furthermore, over South America, shows a more intense centre in subtropical latitude and central and south Patagonia. The cold pattern obtained by the model is in agreement, on magnitude too, with proxy information obtained in some South America regions. The westerly wind component undergoes a shift to lower latitudes during the MM. The atmospheric circulation anomalies obtained in the simulations, show a pattern, over middle and high latitudes, where alternate three or four positive and negative anomaly centres, which is in agreement with a greater meridional component of the flux. Both patterns are similar to those present during El Niño events

Modelado de Alta Precisión en el Cálculo de la Orientación Solar

The calculation of the orientation of the Sun with respect to a particular space-time point (terrestrial or orbital) is the basis for the use of solar resources. Progress in technological applications requires a continuous reduction in the uncertainty with which the Sun’s position is determined. This paper presents a series of algorithms based on a recent planetary ephemeris, which allows an error of less than 0.01 degrees in the coordinates that locate the Sun on the celestial sphere, and have been implemented in an open source program.El cálculo de la orientación del Sol respecto a un determinado punto espacio-temporal (terrestre u orbital) es la base para el aprovechamiento del recurso solar. El avance en las aplicaciones tecnológicas exige una continua reducción en la incerteza con que la posición del Sol es determinada. En este trabajo se presenta una serie de algoritmos basados en una reciente efemérides planetaria. Estos algoritmos permiten un error menor que 0,01 grados en las coordenadas que posicionan al Sol en la esfera celeste, y han sido implementados en un programa de código abiert