Focused cardiac ultrasound screening for rheumatic heart disease by briefl y trained health workers: a study of diagnostic accuracy

Background Echocardiographic screening for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) can identify individuals with subclinical disease who could benefi t from antibiotic prophylaxis. However, most settings have inadequate resources to implement conventional echocardiography and require a feasible, accurate screening method. We aimed to investigate the accuracy of screening by non-expert operators using focused cardiac ultrasound (FoCUS). Methods In this prospective study of diagnostic accuracy, we recruited schoolchildren aged 5 to 15 years in Fiji to undergo two blinded tests. The index test was a FoCUS assessment of mitral and aortic regurgitation, performed by nurses after an 8-week training programme. The reference standard was the diagnosis of RHD by a paediatric cardiologist, based on a standard echocardiogram performed by a skilled echocardiographer. The primary outcome was the accuracy of the index test with use of the most sensitive criteria (any regurgitation). Findings We included 2004 children in the study. The index tests were done between September, 2012, and September, 2013, by seven nurses in eight schools in Fiji. The diagnostic accuracy of the screening test (area under receiver operator characteristic curve) was 0·89 (95% CI 0·83–0·94). When the primary cut-off point (any regurgitation) was used for analysis, sensitivity was 84·2% (72·1–92·5) and specifi city was 85·6% (83·9–87·1). The sensitivity of individual nurses ranged from 66·7% to 100% and specifi city 74·0% to 93·7%. Interpretation Screening by briefl y trained nurses using FoCUS was accurate for the diagnosis of RHD. Refi nements to training and screening test methods should be studied in a range of settings, and in parallel with investigations of the long-term clinical and cost-eff ectiveness of screening for RHD

Enhancement of microphase ordering and mechanical properties of supramolecular hydrogen-bonded polyurethane networks

The improvement of the mechanical properties of supramolecular polymer networks is currently receiving significant interest both within academic and industrial circles in order to enable the application of these desirable stimuli-responsive materials in real world situations. In this study, structural units within phase separated supramolecular polyurethane (SPU) networks have been changed to assess the role of the hard segment composition on the mechanical characteristics of the resultant materials. Notably, increasing the degrees of conformational freedom within the hard segment component of a SPU was found to improve the phase separation and as a consequence also increase the storage modulus of the polymer network. Specifically, replacing 4,4′-methylene diphenyl diisocyanate with 4,4’-dibenzyl diisocyanate within a SPU improved the packing efficiency of the isocyanate derived hard segments and improved the physical properties of the supramolecular polymer network. This study utilised a combination of SAXS, WAXS and AFM analysis to assess the degree of crystallinity within the hard segment component of the polymer network whilst rheological analysis was used to establish the mechanical characteristics of the polymers

Simple, Fast and Accurate Implementation of the Diffusion Approximation Algorithm for Stochastic Ion Channels with Multiple States

The phenomena that emerge from the interaction of the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels (channel noise) with the non-linear neural dynamics are essential to our understanding of the operation of the nervous system. The effects that channel noise can have on neural dynamics are generally studied using numerical simulations of stochastic models. Algorithms based on discrete Markov Chains (MC) seem to be the most reliable and trustworthy, but even optimized algorithms come with a non-negligible computational cost. Diffusion Approximation (DA) methods use Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) to approximate the behavior of a number of MCs, considerably speeding up simulation times. However, model comparisons have suggested that DA methods did not lead to the same results as in MC modeling in terms of channel noise statistics and effects on excitability. Recently, it was shown that the difference arose because MCs were modeled with coupled activation subunits, while the DA was modeled using uncoupled activation subunits. Implementations of DA with coupled subunits, in the context of a specific kinetic scheme, yielded similar results to MC. However, it remained unclear how to generalize these implementations to different kinetic schemes, or whether they were faster than MC algorithms. Additionally, a steady state approximation was used for the stochastic terms, which, as we show here, can introduce significant inaccuracies. We derived the SDE explicitly for any given ion channel kinetic scheme. The resulting generic equations were surprisingly simple and interpretable - allowing an easy and efficient DA implementation. The algorithm was tested in a voltage clamp simulation and in two different current clamp simulations, yielding the same results as MC modeling. Also, the simulation efficiency of this DA method demonstrated considerable superiority over MC methods.Comment: 32 text pages, 10 figures, 1 supplementary text + figur

Assignment of epidemiological lineages in an emerging pandemic using the pangolin tool.

Funder: Oxford Martin School, University of OxfordThe response of the global virus genomics community to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been unprecedented, with significant advances made towards the 'real-time' generation and sharing of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data. The rapid growth in virus genome data production has necessitated the development of new analytical methods that can deal with orders of magnitude of more genomes than previously available. Here, we present and describe Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (pangolin), a computational tool that has been developed to assign the most likely lineage to a given SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence according to the Pango dynamic lineage nomenclature scheme. To date, nearly two million virus genomes have been submitted to the web-application implementation of pangolin, which has facilitated the SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology and provided researchers with access to actionable information about the pandemic's transmission lineages

Responsive Operations for Key Services (ROKS): A Modular, Low SWaP Quantum Communications Payload

Quantum key distribution (QKD) is a theoretically proven future-proof secure encryption method that inherits its security from fundamental physical principles. With a proof-of-concept QKD payload having flown on the Micius satellite since 2016, efforts have intensified globally. Craft Prospect, working with a number of UK organisations, has been focused on miniaturising the technologies that enable QKD so that they may be used in smaller platforms including nanosatellites. The significant reduction of size, and therefore the cost of launching quantum communication technologies either on a dedicated platform or hosted as part of a larger optical communications will improve potential access to quantum encryption on a relatively quick timescale. The Responsive Operations for Key Services (ROKS) mission seeks to be among the first to send a QKD payload on a CubeSat into low Earth orbit, demonstrating the capabilities of newly developed modular quantum technologies. The ROKS payload comprises a quantum source module that supplies photons randomly in any of four linear polarisation states fed from a quantum random number generator; an acquisition, pointing, and tracking system to fine-tune alignment of the quantum source beam with an optical ground station; an imager that will detect cloud cover autonomously; and an onboard computer that controls and monitors the other modules, which manages the payload and assures the overall performance and security of the system. Each of these modules have been developed with low Size, Weight and Power (SWaP) for CubeSats, but with interoperability in mind for other satellite form factors. We present each of the listed components, together with the initial test results from our test bench and the performance of our protoflight models prior to initial integration with the 6U CubeSat platform systems. The completed ROKS payload will be ready for flight at the end of 2022, with various modular components already being baselined for flight and integrated into third party communication missions

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundatio

The care of older cancer patients in the United Kingdom

The ageing population poses new challenges globally. Cancer care for older patients is one of these challenges, and it has a significant impact on societies. In the United Kingdom (UK), as the number of older cancer patients increases, the management of this group has become part of daily practice for most oncology teams in every geographical area. Older cancer patients are at a higher risk of both under- and over-treatment. Therefore, the assessment of a patient’s biological age and effective organ functional reserve becomes paramount. This may then guide treatment decisions by better estimating a prognosis and the risk-to-benefit ratio of a given therapy to anticipate and mitigate against potential toxicities/difficulties. Moreover, older cancer patients are often affected by geriatric syndromes and other issues that impact their overall health, function and quality of life. Comprehensive geriatric assessments offer an opportunity to identify and address health problems which may then optimise one’s fitness and well-being. Whilst it is widely accepted that older cancer patients may benefit from such an approach, resources are often scarce, and access to dedicated services and research remains limited to specific centres across the UK. The aim of this project is to map the current services and projects in the UK to learn from each other and shape the future direction of care of older patients with cancer