Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008-11.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950-51, 1973-75 and 2008-11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008-11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

A Signal Detection Theoretic Analysis of the Carney Model of Auditory Processing

Abstract: Historically, signa[ detection theory (SDT) applied "outside" the ear has not provided valid estimates of the performance measured in psychophysical experiments. Our previous work, in which SDT wm applied at the output of each stage of the Auditory Image Model (AIM) (1), has indicated that this integrated approach affords theoretical performance predictions that are more closely matched to experimental data than previous approaches (2). In this paper, we describe the results obtained when a similar approach is applied to the output of the Camey model of auditory processing (3). Our results indicate that for a simultaneous masking task, when it is assumed that all parameters of the input signal are known, the performance predictions obtained from SDT integrated with AIM and the Carney model are similar at the neural firing stage, and both over-predict experimental measures. However, when it is assumed that the phase of the sinusoid is unknown, the integrated approach provides performance estimates that are fairly close to the performance levels observed experimentally

Adolescent substance use: a prospective longitudinal model of substance use onset among South African adolescents

Substance use onset among Colored adolescents between eighth and ninth grades in an urban area of Cape Town, South Africa was examined using latent transition analysis. Longitudinal self-report data regarding substance use (N = 1118, 50.9% female) were collected in 2004 and 2005. Results indicated that the pattern of onset was similar across genders; adolescents first tried either alcohol or cigarettes, followed by both, then dagga (cannabis), and then inhalants. The prevalence of lifetime cigarette use was slightly greater for females; dagga (cannabis) and inhalant use were greater for males. The similarity of developmental onset in the current sample to previous international work supports the promise of adapting prevention programs across contexts. The study’s limitations are noted.Web of Scienc

Institutional Repositories for Public Engagement: Creating a Common Good Model for an Engaged Campus

Most higher-education institutions strive to be publicly engaged and community centered. These institutions leverage faculty, researchers, librarians, community liaisons, and communication specialists to meet this mission, but they have largely underutilized the potential of institutional repositories. Academic institutions can use institutional repositories to provide open access and long-term preservation to institutional gray literature, research data, university publications, and campus research products that have tangible, real-world applications for the communities they serve. Using examples from the University of Minnesota, this article demonstrates how making this content discoverable, openly accessible, and preserved for the future through an institutional repository not only increases the value of this publicly-engaged work but also creates a lasting record of a university’s public engagement efforts and contributes to the mission of the institution.Ope

Transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa.

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (Re) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain Re below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns

Use of In Vivo Complementation in \u3cem\u3eMycobacterium tuberculosis\u3c/em\u3e to Identify a Genomic Fragment Associated with Virulence

Novel molecular tools and genetic methods were developed to isolate genomic fragments of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that may be associated with virulence. We sought to restore virulence, a characteristic of M. tuberculosis that is correlated with growth rate in mouse spleen and lung tissue, to the avirulent strain H37Ra by complementation. A representative library of the virulent M. tuberculosis strain H37Rv was constructed and transformed into H37Ra. Enrichment for individual faster-growing recombinants was achieved by passage of pools of H37Ra transformants harboring the H37Rv library through mice. A molecular strategy was devised to isolate and clone the H37Rv genomic DNA fragment ivg, which conferred a more rapid in vivo growth rate to H37Ra

Translational research in South Africa: evaluating implementation quality using a factorial design

Background: HealthWise South Africa: Life Skills for Adolescents (HW) is an evidence- based substance use and sexual risk prevention program that emphasizes the positive use of leisure time. Since 2000, this program has evolved from pilot testing through an efficacy trial involving over 7,000 youth in the Cape Town area. Beginning in 2011, through 2015, we are undertaking a new study that expands HW to all schools in the Metro South Education District. Objective: This paper describes a research study designed in partnership with our South African collaborators that examines three factors hypothesized to affect the quality and fidelity of HW implementation: enhanced teacher training; teacher support, structure and supervision; and enhanced school environment. Methods: Teachers and students from 56 schools in the Cape Town area will participate in this study. Teacher observations are the primary means of collecting data on factors affecting implementation quality. These factors address the practical concerns of teachers and schools related to likelihood of use and cost-effectiveness, and are hypothesized to be "active ingredients" related to high-quality program implementation in real-world settings. An innovative factorial experimental design was chosen to enable estimation of the individual effect of each of the three factors. Results: Because this paper describes the conceptualization of our study, results are not yet available. Conclusions: The results of this study may have both substantive and methodological implications for advancing Type 2 translational research

Rapid optimisation of fragments and hits to lead compounds from screening of crude reaction mixtures

Fragment based methods are now widely used to identify starting points in drug discovery and generation of tools for chemical biology. A significant challenge is optimization of these weak binding fragments to hit and lead compounds. We have developed an approach where individual reaction mixtures of analogues of hits can be evaluated without purification of the product. Here, we describe experiments to optimise the processes and then assess such mixtures in the high throughput crystal structure determination facility, XChem. Diffraction data for crystals of the proteins Hsp90 and PDHK2 soaked individually with 83 crude reaction mixtures are analysed manually or with the automated XChem procedures. The results of structural analysis are compared with binding measurements from other biophysical techniques. This approach can transform early hit to lead optimisation and the lessons learnt from this study provide a protocol that can be used by the community

From weak coupling to spinning strings

We identify the gauge theory dual of a spinning string of minimal energy with spins S_1, S_2 on AdS_5 and charge J on S^5. For this purpose we focus on a certain set of local operators with two different types of covariant derivatives acting on complex scalar fields. We analyse the corresponding nested Bethe equations for the ground states in the limit of large spins. The auxiliary Bethe roots form certain string configurations in the complex plane, which enable us to derive integral equations for the leading and sub-leading contribution to the anomalous dimension. The results can be expressed through the observables of the sl(2) sub-sector, i.e. the cusp anomaly f(g) and the virtual scaling function B_L(g), rendering the strong-coupling analysis straightforward. Furthermore, we also study a particular sub-class of these operators specialising to a scaling limit with finite values of the second spin at weak and strong coupling.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures, minor changes, references adde

A Generalized Scaling Function for AdS/CFT

We study a refined large spin limit for twist operators in the sl(2) sector of AdS/CFT. We derive a novel non-perturbative equation for the generalized two-parameter scaling function associated to this limit, and analyze it at weak coupling. It is expected to smoothly interpolate between weakly coupled gauge theory and string theory at strong coupling.Comment: 27 pages, no figures; v2: references added and typos fixe