Information aggregation for timing decision making.

In this paper I consider the issue of optimal information aggregation for timing decision making. In each period, a decision maker may choose an action which delivers an uncertain payoff, or wait until the next period, in when new information will arrive. The information is provided by a committee of experts. Each member in each period receives a signal correlated to the state. I obtain an optimal rule for aggregating information for each period

Information aggregation for timing decision making.

In this paper I consider the issue of optimal information aggregation for timing decision making. In each period, a decision maker may choose an action which delivers an uncertain payoff, or wait until the next period, in when new information will arrive. The information is provided by a committee of experts. Each member in each period receives a signal correlated to the state. I obtain an optimal rule for aggregating information for each period

Vinculando el talento de investigadores y emprendedores para la innovación

El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar la vinculación entre el talento de investigadores y emprendedores, mediante un modelo de emparejamiento considerando las fricciones que pudieran existir (matching model with search frictions). La principal contribución se basa en ampliar el conocimiento en la modelación de la innovación exitosa como resultado de un proceso de búsqueda con fricciones. Se muestra evidencia de que los países que son creativos también son productores de conocimiento, y a la vez tienen mejores insumos para la innovación. Para lograr ser más competitivo a nivel país deben considerarse todos los factores (inputs) que impulsan la innovación (outputs). También se encontró que los países de mayor desarrollo han adoptado estrategias de innovación más articuladas a diferencia de los países con menor desarrollo, incluyendo la facilidad para la vinculación entre investigadores y emprendedores. Las conclusiones del presente trabajo pueden ser relevantes en el diseño de estrategias y políticas gubernamentales para promover el desarrollo y el crecimiento a través de la innovación.(Linking the Talent of Researchers and Entrepreneurs for Innovation)The objective of this research is to analyze the link between the talent of researches and entrepreneurs using a matching model with the search frictions that could exist. The main contribution is expanding the knowledge on the modeling of successful innovation as a result of a frictions search process. There is also evidence that creative countries are also producers of knowledge and, in turn, have better inputs for innovation. In order to be more competitive at a national level, all the factors (inputs) that promote innovation (outputs) must be considered. Furthermore, it was found that the more developed countries have adopted more articulated innovation strategies, unlike less developed countries, including the ease to create a connection between researchers and entrepreneurs. The conclusions hereof can be relevant for the design of governmental strategies and policies to promote development and growth through innovation

Land tenure security and agrarian investments in the Peruvian Highlands

The abundant empirical studies on the relationship between land tenure security and investment remain inconclusive. This work sheds light on this issue, estimating a simultaneous equation model of 9 different types of land investments and land tenure security using data from the Peruvian agrarian census. This study analyzed the case of the Peruvian highlands, which could be a suitable case study for discussing the importance of land tenure security and land tilting programs on rural development in developing countries due to its agrarian-based economic characteristics and for having an official land-titling program (the PETT). We found that tenure security was significantly and positively related to five land investments among the nine analyzed; however, the size of these effects is small, so its importance is lower than what it is a priori expected on institutional grounds. The effects were also negative for two investments for which customs seemed to be a good way of land management. Land-titling programs in developing countries seem to be a necessary but not sufficient policy approach to promote rural development. Our results indicate that where customs are functioning well, land-titling programs can be complement to but not a substitute for these customary institutions. The impacts of other socioeconomic variables suggest that public programs promoting education and training as well as gender equality are important for the promotion of rural development

A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician Fleet: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north- west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%.Da-Rocha, García-Cutrín and Gutiérrez acknowledge financial support from the European Commission (MINOUW, project H2020-SFS-2014-2, number 634495) and the Spanish Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (ECO2016-78819-R, AEI/FEDER, UE). Prellezo acknowledges financial support from the Basque Government (Department of Economic Development and Infrastructures of the Basque Government). Da-Rocha and García-Cutrín also acknowledge financial support from Xunta de Galicia (GRC 2015/014 and ECOBAS). Gutiérrez also acknowledges financial support from the Basque Government (MacLab IT-793-13). This publication reflects the views of the authors only and none of the funding parties may be held liable for any use which may be made of the information contained therein

A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician Fleet: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilib- rium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986-2012, ‘fishing opportunities” would have increased, leading to an increase in labor hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%

Vinculando el talento de investigadores y emprendedores para la innovación

The objective of this research is to analyze the link between the talent of researches and entrepreneurs using a matching model with the search frictions that could exist. The main contribution is expanding the knowledge on the modeling of successful innovation as a result of a frictions search process. There is also evidence that creative countries are also producers of knowledge and, in turn, have better inputs for innovation. In order to be more competitive at a national level, all the factors (inputs) that promote innovation (outputs) must be considered. Furthermore, it was found that the more developed countries have adopted more articulated innovation strategies, unlike less developed countries, including the ease to create a connection between researchers and entrepreneurs. The conclusions hereof can be relevant for the design of governmental strategies and policies to promote development and growth through innovation.El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar la vinculación entre el talento de investigadores y emprendedores, mediante un modelo de emparejamiento considerando las fricciones que pudieran existir (matching model with search frictions). La principal contribución se basa en ampliar el conocimiento en la modelación de la innovación exitosa como resultado de un proceso de búsqueda con fricciones. Se muestra evidencia de que los países que son creativos también son productores de conocimiento, y a la vez tienen mejores insumos para la innovación. Para lograr ser más competitivo a nivel país deben considerarse todos los factores (inputs) que impulsan la innovación (outputs). También se encontró que los países de mayor desarrollo han adoptado estrategias de innovación más articuladas a diferencia de los países con menor desarrollo, incluyendo la facilidad para la vinculación entre investigadores y emprendedores. Las conclusiones del presente trabajo pueden ser relevantes en el diseño de estrategias y políticas gubernamentales para promover el desarrollo y el crecimiento a través de la innovación

Credit Risk: Two mexican banks empiric analysis

En este trabajo de investigación se considera el modelo estructural de Merton, que permite determinar la probabilidad de incumplimiento de una empresa como la probabilidad de que el valor de mercado de los activos sea menor que el valor de los pasivos a su fecha de vencimiento. Se utiliza el modelo para identificar los principales determinantes de la probabilidad de incumplimiento de Banorte y BBVA, dos de los principales bancos del sistema financiero mexicano. Como era de esperarse, la probabilidad de incumplimiento aumentó debido a la crisis originada por la caída en el valor de los títulos subprime. Además, se observa que la probabilidad de incumplimiento es sensiblemente mayor para el banco más apalancado, BBVA. Finalmente, la probabilidad de incumplimiento de BBVA está fuertemente vinculada a cambios en la tasa libre de riesgo, mientras que ésta no influye significativamente en la probabilidad de incumplimiento de BANORTE, que es más sensible a las variaciones en la prima por riesgo de mercado.In this research, Merton’s structural model is considered, which allows to determine the probability of default of a firm as the probability that the market value of its assets falls below the firm’s liabilities at their maturity date. The model is used to identify the main determinants of the probability of default for BANORTE and BBVA, two of the most important banks in the Mexican Financial System. Just as expected, the probability of default increased due to the crisis unraveled by the fall in the price of subprime bonds. Also, it is sensibly higher for the more leveraged bank, BBVA. Finally, BBVA’s probability of default is strongly linked to changes in the risk free rate, while for BANORTE, it is more sensible to changes in the market risk premium. Clasificacion JEL (JEL Classification): G12, G21 and G32