Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring

Background. The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Ov16 serologyin children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds.Model predictions will depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels. Methods. The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used toassess: i) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiveroperator characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely-used model), and ii) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not in ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.Results. When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, under-10s are themost informative age group for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM’s exposure patterns, 5–15-year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere).Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenientseroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.Conclusions. Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically onage-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions

Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

textabstractBackground: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, the elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of <1 per 10,000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases. Many endemic areas have not yet achieved optimal control due to logistical, biological as well as technical challenges. We used mathematical modelling to quantify VL transmission dynamics and predict the feasibility of achieving the VL elimination target with current control strategies under varying assumptions about the reservoir of infection in humans. Methods: We developed three deterministic age-structured transmission models with different main reservoirs of infection in humans: asymptomatic infections (model 1), reactivation of infection after initial infection (model 2), and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL; model 3). For each model, we defined four sub-variants based on different assumptions about the duration of immunity and age-patterns in exposure to sandflies. All 12 model sub-variants were fitted to data from the KalaNet study in Bihar (India) and Nepal, and the best sub-variant was selected per model. Predictions were made for optimal and sub-optimal indoor residual spraying (IRS) effectiveness for three different levels of VL endemicity. Results: Structurally different models explained the KalaNet data equally well. However, the predicted impact of IRS varied substantially between models, such that a conclusion about reaching the VL elimination targets for the ISC heavily depends on assumptions about the main reservoir of infection in humans: asymptomatic cases, recovered (immune) individuals that reactivate, or PKDL cases. Conclusions: Available data on the impact of IRS so far suggest one model is probably closest to reality (model 1). According to this model, elimination of VL (incidence of <1 per 10,000) by 2017 is only feasible in low and medium endemic settings with optimal IRS. In highly endemic settings and settings with sub-optimal IRS, additional interventions will be required

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods: This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results: The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions: The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

Background: Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or ‘hotspots’ of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007–2015. Methodology/Principal findings VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations’ threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1–5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5–86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5–14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of ‘the poorest of the poor’ and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods: This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results: The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions: The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks

Comparing Cutaneous Research Funded by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases with 2010 Global Burden of Disease Results

Importance Disease burden data helps guide research prioritization. Objective To determine the extent to which grants issued by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) reflect disease burden, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 project. Design Two investigators independently assessed 15 skin conditions studied by GBD 2010 in the NIAMS database for grants issued in 2013. The 15 skin diseases were matched to their respective DALYs from GBD 2010. Setting The United States NIAMS database and GBD 2010 skin condition disability data. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) Relationship of NIAMS grant database topic funding with percent total GBD 2010 DALY and DALY rank for 15 skin conditions. Results During fiscal year 2013, 1,443 NIAMS grants were issued at a total value of $424 million. Of these grants, 17.7% covered skin topics. Of the total skin disease funding, 82% (91 grants) were categorized as “general cutaneous research.” Psoriasis, leprosy, and “other skin and subcutaneous diseases” (ie; immunobullous disorders, vitiligo, and hidradenitis suppurativa) were over-represented when funding was compared with disability. Conversely, cellulitis, decubitus ulcer, urticaria, acne vulgaris, viral skin diseases, fungal skin diseases, scabies, and melanoma were under-represented. Conditions for which disability and funding appeared well-matched were dermatitis, squamous and basal cell carcinoma, pruritus, bacterial skin diseases, and alopecia areata. Conclusions and Relevance Degree of representation in NIAMS is partly correlated with DALY metrics. Grant funding was well-matched with disability metrics for five of the 15 studied skin diseases, while two skin diseases were over-represented and seven were under-represented. Global burden estimates provide increasingly transparent and important information for investigating and prioritizing national research funding allocations

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

Effects of Separate and Concomitant TLR-2 and TLR-4 Activation in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells of Newborn and Adult Horses

Deficient innate and adaptive immune responses cause newborn mammals to be more susceptible to bacterial infections than adult individuals. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are known to play a pivotal role in bacterial recognition and subsequent immune responses. Several studies have indicated that activation of certain TLRs, in particular TLR-2, can result in suppression of inflammatory pathology. In this study, we isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from adult and newborn horses to investigate the influence of TLR-2 activation on the inflammatory response mediated by TLR-4. Data were analysed in a Bayesian hierarchical linear regression model, accounting for variation between horses. In general, cytokine responses were lower in PBMCs derived from foals compared with PBMCs from adult horses. Whereas in foal PBMCs expression of TLR-2, TLR-4, and TLR-9 was not influenced by separate and concomitant TLR-2 and TLR-4 activation, in adult horse PBMCs, both TLR ligands caused significant up-regulation of TLR-2 and down-regulation of TLR-9. Moreover, in adult horse PBMCs, interleukin-10 protein production and mRNA expression increased significantly following concomitant TLR-2 and TLR-4 activation (compared with sole TLR-4 activation). In foal PBMCs, this effect was not observed. In both adult and foal PBMCs, the lipopolysaccharide-induced pro-inflammatory response was not influenced by pre-incubation and co-stimulation with the specific TLR-2 ligand Pam3-Cys-Ser-Lys4. This indicates that the published data on other species cannot be translated directly to the horse, and stresses the necessity to confirm results obtained in other species in target animals. Future research should aim to identify other methods or substances that enhance TLR functionality and bacterial defence in foals, thereby lowering susceptibility to life-threatening infections during the first period of life

New insights into the kinetics and variability of egg excretion in controlled human hookworm infections

Four healthy volunteers were infected with 50 Necator americanus infective larvae (L3) in a controlled human hookworm infection trial and followed for 52 weeks. The kinetics of fecal egg counts in volunteers was assessed with Bayesian multilevel analysis, which revealed an increase between weeks 7 and 13, followed by an egg density plateau of about 1000 eggs/g of feces. Variation in egg counts was minimal between same-day measurements but varied considerably between days, particularly during the plateau phase. These analyses pave the way for the controlled human hookworm model to accelerate drug and vaccine efficacy studies

A randomized feasibility trial comparing four antimalarial drug regimens to induce Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in the controlled human malaria infection model.

Background: Malaria elimination strategies require a thorough understanding of parasite transmission from human to mosquito. A clinical model to induce gametocytes to understand their dynamics and evaluate transmission-blocking interventions (TBI) is currently unavailable. Here, we explore the use of the well-established Controlled Human Malaria Infection model (CHMI) to induce gametocyte carriage with different antimalarial drug regimens. Methods: In a single centre, open-label randomised trial, healthy malaria-naive participants (aged 18–35 years) were infected with Plasmodium falciparum by bites of infected Anopheles mosquitoes. Participants were randomly allocated to four different treatment arms (n = 4 per arm) comprising low-dose (LD) piperaquine (PIP) or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), followed by a curative regimen upon recrudescence. Male and female gametocyte densities were determined by molecular assays. Results: Mature gametocytes were observed in all participants (16/16, 100%). Gametocytes appeared 8.5–12 days after the first detection of asexual parasites. Peak gametocyte densities and gametocyte burden was highest in the LD-PIP/SP arm, and associated with the preceding asexual parasite biomass (p=0.026). Male gametocytes had a mean estimated circulation time of 2.7 days (95% CI 1.5–3.9) compared to 5.1 days (95% CI 4.1–6.1) for female gametocytes. Exploratory mosquito feeding assays showed successful sporadic mosquito infections. There were no serious adverse events or significant differences in the occurrence and severity of adverse events between study arms (p=0.49 and p=0.28). Conclusions: The early appearance of gametocytes indicates gametocyte commitment during the first wave of asexual parasites emerging from the liver. Treatment by LD-PIP followed by a curative SP regimen, results in the highest gametocyte densities and the largest number of gametocyte-positive days. This model can be used to evaluate the effect of drugs and vaccines on gametocyte dynamics, and lays the foundation for fulfilling the critical unmet need to evaluate transmission-blocking interventions against falciparum malaria for downstream selection and clinical development. Funding: Funded by PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI). Clinical trial number: NCT02836002