Pre-vaccination testing could expand coverage of two-dose COVID vaccines

Recent evidence indicates that a single dose of mRNA-based vaccines produce similar immune responses in people with evidence of past infection compared with two doses in immunologically naive individuals. For COVID-19 vaccines with two dose regimens, point-of-care antibody testing for prior infection when administering the first dose could enable expanded vaccine access in a cost-effective manner. Generally, antibody tests with sensitivity and specificity well below that typically accepted for product licensure would still enable expanded vaccine coverage, though to be cost-beneficial total test cost (i.e. procurement and administration) needs to be less than roughly a third of total vaccine dose cost. For highly sensitive (90%) and specific (99%) tests, coverage could be expanded by more than 33%. Tests with the appropriate performance characteristics are plausible, though likely need setting specific tailoring.</ns3:p

Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds.

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits. With sufficiently low testing cost, those trends outweigh additional screening costs, expanding the range of settings with positive net-benefits. This work highlights two aspects for further analysis of test-then-vaccinate strategies. We found that starting routine testing at younger ages could increase benefits; if real tests are shown to sufficiently address safety concerns, the manufacturer, regulators and WHO should revisit guidance restricting use to 9-years-and-older recipients. We also found that repeat testing could improve return-on-investment (ROI), despite increasing intervention costs. Thus, more detailed analyses should address questions on repeat testing and testing periodicity, in addition to real test sensitivity and specificity. Our results follow from a mathematical model relating ROI to epidemiology, intervention strategy, and costs for testing, vaccination and dengue infections. We applied this model to a range of strategies, costs and epidemiological settings pertinent to CYD-TDV. However, general trends may not apply locally, so we provide our model and analyses as an R package available via CRAN, denvax. To apply to their setting, decision-makers need only local estimates of age-specific seroprevalence and costs for secondary infections

The Spectrum of Goldstini and Modulini

When supersymmetry is broken in multiple sectors via independent dynamics, the theory furnishes a corresponding multiplicity of "goldstini" degrees of freedom which may play a substantial role in collider phenomenology and cosmology. In this paper, we explore the tree-level mass spectrum of goldstini arising from a general admixture of F-term, D-term, and almost no-scale supersymmetry breaking, employing non-linear superfields and a novel gauge fixing for supergravity discussed in a companion paper. In theories of F-term and D-term breaking, goldstini acquire a mass which is precisely twice the gravitino mass, while the inclusion of no-scale breaking renders one of these modes, the modulino, massless. We argue that the vanishing modulino mass can be explained in terms of an accidental and spontaneously broken "global" supersymmetry.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures; v2: typo corrected, references updated; v3: version to appear in JHE

A new fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant control method for mechanical and aeronautical systems with neural estimators

A new method of fault detection and fault tolerant control is proposed in this paper for mechanical systems and aeronautical systems. The faults to be estimated and diagnosed are malfunctions occurred within the control loops of the systems, rather than some static faults, such as gearbox fault, component cracks, etc. In the proposed method two neural networks are used as on-line estimators, the fault will be accurately estimated when the estimators are adapted on-line with the post fault dynamic information. Furthermore, the estimated value of faults are used to compensate for the impact of the faults, so that the stability and performance of the system with the faults are maintained until the faulty components to be repaired. The sliding mode control is used to maintain system stability under the post fault dynamics. The control law and the neural network learning algorithms are derived using the Lyapunov method, so that the neural estimators are guaranteed to converge to the fault to be diagnosed, while the entire closed-loop system stability is guaranteed with all variables bounded. The main contribution of this paper to the knowledge in this field is that the proposed method cannot only diagnose and tolerant with constant fault, also diagnose and tolerant with the time-varying faults. This is very important because most faults occurred in industrial systems are time-varying in nature. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the design procedure and the effectiveness of the method. The simulation results are compared with two existing methods that can cope with constant faults only, and the superiority is demonstrated

Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK

To predict the public health impact on cervical disease by introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United Kingdom, we developed a mathematical model that can be used to reflect the impact of vaccination in different countries with existing screening programmes. Its use is discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The model was calibrated with published data. The impact of vaccination on cervical cancer and deaths, precancerous lesions and screening outcomes were estimated for a vaccinated cohort of 12-year-old girls, among which it is estimated that there would be a reduction of 66% in the prevalence of high-grade precancerous lesions and a 76% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. Estimates for various other measures of the population effects of vaccination are also presented. We concluded that it is feasible to forecast the potential effects of HPV vaccination in the context of an existing national screening programme. Results suggest a sizable reduction in the incidence of cervical cancer and related deaths. Areas for future research include investigation of the beneficial effects of HPV vaccination on infection transmission and epidemic dynamics, as well as HPV-related neoplasms in other sites

Optimal measurement of visual motion across spatial and temporal scales

Sensory systems use limited resources to mediate the perception of a great variety of objects and events. Here a normative framework is presented for exploring how the problem of efficient allocation of resources can be solved in visual perception. Starting with a basic property of every measurement, captured by Gabor's uncertainty relation about the location and frequency content of signals, prescriptions are developed for optimal allocation of sensors for reliable perception of visual motion. This study reveals that a large-scale characteristic of human vision (the spatiotemporal contrast sensitivity function) is similar to the optimal prescription, and it suggests that some previously puzzling phenomena of visual sensitivity, adaptation, and perceptual organization have simple principled explanations.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, 2 appendices; in press in Favorskaya MN and Jain LC (Eds), Computer Vision in Advanced Control Systems using Conventional and Intelligent Paradigms, Intelligent Systems Reference Library, Springer-Verlag, Berli

The Distribution of Sexually-Transmitted Human Papillomaviruses in HIV Positive and Negative Patients in Zambia, Africa

Background: Human Papillomaviruses (HPV) are double-stranded DNA viruses, considered to be the primary etiological agents in cervical intraepithelial neoplasias and cancers. Approximately 15–20 of the 40 mucosal HPVs confer a high-risk of progression of lesions to invasive cancer. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of sexually transmitted HPVs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) positive and negative patients in Zambia, Africa. The rate of high-risk HPV genotypes worldwide varies within each country. Thus, we sought to investigate the rates of HPV infection in sub-Saharan Africa and the potential role of HIV in affecting the HPV genotype distribution. Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study reports findings on the association and effects of HIV on HPV infections in an existing cohort of patients at University Teaching Hospital (UTH) Lusaka, Zambia. The objective of this study was to assess HPV prevalence, genotype distribution and to identify co-factors that influence HPV infection. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with two standard consensus primer sets (CpI/II and GP5+/6+) was used to test for the presence of HPV DNA. Primers specific for β-actin were used to monitor DNA quality. Vaginal lavage samples, collected between 1998-1999 from a total of 70 women, were part of a larger cohort that was also analyzed for HIV and human herpesvirus infection. Seventy of the samples yielded usable DNA. HIV status was determined by two rapid assays, Capillus and Determine. The incidence of HIV and HPV infections and HPV genotype distributions were calculated and statistical significance was determined by Chi-Squared test. Results: We determined that most common HPV genotypes detected among these Zambian patients were types 16 and 18 (21.6% each), which is approximately three-fold greater than the rates for HPV16, and ten-fold greater than the rates for HPV18 in the United States. The worldwide prevalence of HPV16 is approximately 14% and HPV18 is 5%. The overall ratio of high-risk (HR) to low-risk (LR) HPVs in the patient cohort was 69% and 31% respectively; essentially identical to that for the HR and LR distributions worldwide. However, we discovered that HIV positive patients were two-times as likely to have an HR HPV as HIV negative individuals, while the distribution of LR HPVs was unaffected by HIV status. Interestingly, we observed a nine-fold increase in HPV18 infection frequency in HIV positive versus HIV negative individuals. Conclusion: The rate of oncogenic HPVs (type 16 and 18) in Zambia was much higher than in the U.S., potentially providing an explanation for the high-rates of cervical cancer in Zambia. Surprisingly, we discovered a strong association between positive HIV status and the prevalence of HR HPVs, and specifically HPV18

Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission in a previously unaffected country. METHODS: We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries with no sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission or other introduction routes from affected regions. We assessed the effectiveness of syndromic screening at departure and/or arrival and traveller sensitisation to the COVID-2019-like symptoms with the aim to trigger rapid self-isolation and reporting on symptom onset to enable contact tracing. We assumed that syndromic screening would reduce the number of infected arrivals and that traveller sensitisation reduces the average number of secondary cases. We use stochastic simulations to account for uncertainty in both arrival and secondary infections rates, and present sensitivity analyses on arrival rates of infected travellers and the effectiveness of traveller sensitisation. We report the median expected delay achievable in each scenario and an inner 50% interval. RESULTS: Under baseline assumptions, introducing exit and entry screening in combination with traveller sensitisation can delay a local SARS-CoV-2 outbreak by 8 days (50% interval: 3-14 days) when the rate of importation is 1 infected traveller per week at time of introduction. The additional benefit of entry screening is small if exit screening is effective: the combination of only exit screening and traveller sensitisation can delay an outbreak by 7 days (50% interval: 2-13 days). In the absence of screening, with less effective sensitisation, or a higher rate of importation, these delays shrink rapidly to <4 days. CONCLUSION: Syndromic screening and traveller sensitisation in combination may have marginally delayed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in unaffected countries

The impact of mental health recovery narratives on recipients experiencing mental health problems: Qualitative analysis and change model.

BACKGROUND: Mental health recovery narratives are stories of recovery from mental health problems. Narratives may impact in helpful and harmful ways on those who receive them. The objective of this paper is to develop a change model identifying the range of possible impacts and how they occur. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with adults with experience of mental health problems and recovery (n = 77). Participants were asked to share a mental health recovery narrative and to describe the impact of other people's recovery narratives on their own recovery. A change model was generated through iterative thematic analysis of transcripts. RESULTS: Change is initiated when a recipient develops a connection to a narrator or to the events descripted in their narrative. Change is mediated by the recipient recognising experiences shared with the narrator, noticing the achievements or difficulties of the narrator, learning how recovery happens, or experiencing emotional release. Helpful outcomes of receiving recovery narratives are connectedness, validation, hope, empowerment, appreciation, reference shift and stigma reduction. Harmful outcomes are a sense of inadequacy, disconnection, pessimism and burden. Impact is positively moderated by the perceived authenticity of the narrative, and can be reduced if the recipient is experiencing a crisis. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that incorporate the use of recovery narratives, such as peer support, anti-stigma campaigns and bibliotherapy, can use the change model to maximise benefit and minimise harms from narratives. Interventions should incorporate a diverse range of narratives available through different mediums to enable a range of recipients to connect with and benefit from this material. Service providers using recovery narratives should preserve authenticity so as to maximise impact, for example by avoiding excessive editing

The impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy on prevalence and incidence of cervical human papillomavirus infections in HIV-positive adolescents

Abstract Background The implementation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) among HIV-positive patients results in immune reconstitution, slower progression of HIV disease, and a decrease in the occurrence of opportunistic infections. However, the impact of HAART on cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, clearance, and persistence in high-risk adolescents remains controversial. Methods HIV-positive and high-risk HIV-negative female adolescents were enrolled in the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) longitudinal cohort study. At each semi-annual clinical visit, cervical lavage samples were tested for 30 HPV types. Type-specific and carcinogenic risk-specific HPV prevalence and incidence were compared in 373 eligible participants: 146 HIV-negative female adolescents with a median follow-up of 721.5 [IQR: 483-1301] days and 227 HIV-positive female adolescents. Of the 227 HIV-positive participants, a fixed set (n = 100) were examined both before and after HAART initiation; 70 were examined only before HAART initiation; and 57 were examined only after HAART initiation, with overall median follow-up of 271 [IQR: 86.5-473] and 427.25 [IQR: 200-871] days respectively for before and after HAART initiation. Results Of the 373 eligible participants, 262 (70%) were infected with at least one type of HPV at baseline, and 78 of the remaining 111 (70%) became infected with at least one type of HPV by the end of the study. Overall, the incidence and prevalence of HPV types 58, 53/66, 68/70, and 31/33/35 were much higher than the established carcinogenic and HPV vaccine types 16 and 18, especially in HIV-positive females both before and after HAART initiation. Baseline prevalence for individual high-risk HPV types ranged, depending on type, from 0.7-10%, 1-17%, and 1-18% in the HIV-negative group, the HIV-positive before HAART initiation group, and the HIV-positive after HAART initiation group, respectively. Likewise, the incidence ranged, depending on HPV type, from 0.64-9.83 cases/100 PY, 3.00-12.80 cases/100 PY, and 1.49-17.05 cases/100 PY in the three groups, respectively. The patterns of each HPV type infection, clearance, and persistence did not differ considerably before or after the introduction of HAART and were clearly independent of CD4+ change within the short post-HAART follow-up period. Conclusions HAART did not immediately affect the incidence of type-specific HPV infections within a short-period follow-up; however, future studies are warranted in larger populations to evaluate HAART's impact over longer periods