Consumer choice prediction : artificial neural networks versus logistic models

Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN) to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. Neural networks are considered as a field of artificial intelligence. The development of the models was inspired by the neural architecture of human brain. Neural networks have been generally applied to two different categories of problems - recognition problems and generalisation problems. Recognition problems include visual applications such as learning to recognize particular words and speak them. Generalization problems include classification and prediction. Recently, ANN have been applied in the business and marketing research areas. Most of the studies have utilised the multi-layer feed-forward neural networks (MLFN) in analysing consumer choice problems. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN), a special class of neural networks, and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers' choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics, and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income, and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN) exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors

The mediating role of perceived value on the relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction: Evidence from Indonesian airline passengers

This study aims to investigate the interrelationship among service quality, perceived value and customer satisfaction. The data were collected from 5-star Indonesian Airline from Surabaya and Malang, East Java Province, Indonesia. Two hundred observation was used to test the hypothesis. The data were analyzed by using Confirmatory factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling. The results illustrate that perceived value plays a partial mediating role between the service quality and customer satisfaction construct

Clicks or bricks? Online shopping adoption in Australia

Purpose: This research identifies and ranks the decision factors associated with online shopping adoption in Australia. Design/Methodology/Approach: Primary data for this study was collected with self-administered questionnaires and analysed using EFA and logit regression. Findings: The following factors, ranked in order of importance, influence online shopping behaviour in Australia: perceived risk, service quality, website factors, brand image, product variety and Australian product loyalty. The findings also show that demographic characteristics also influence the probability that Australian consumers will shop online. Originality/value: This is the first empirical study in which the decision factors influencing Australian consumers’ decisions to shop online are examined. The research contributes to the empirical literature on online shopping from a theoretical perspective as the modelling framework can be used to analyse online shopping behaviour in different cultural settings. Longitudinal studies based on the modelling framework can also be undertaken to identify emerging decision factors and to track the changes in importance of the current factors. The results will also enable retailers to make informed decisions on their existing or future shopping channels

Modelling passenger loyalty towards app-based motorcycle taxi

This study evaluates the effect of both service quality and mobile application quality on passenger loyalty towards application-based motorcycle taxi (AMT) services. The data employed for this study were collected from 319 AMT service users in Bandung, Indonesia. To analyse the data, partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to check the influence of both service quality and application quality on passenger loyalty and their indirect influence through passenger perceived value and passenger satisfaction. The result shows that the passenger perception of mobile app quality is an important driver of passenger loyalty towards AMT services. Further, this study suggests that the effect of both service quality and mobile app quality on passenger loyalty is via strengthening passenger perceived value and satisfaction. Finally, this study’s findings reveal the important role of mobile app quality as the determinant of AMT service quality. This study provides a venue for AMT business managers to improve their business performance by developing both service quality and mobile app quality

How many steps/day are enough? for adults

Physical activity guidelines from around the world are typically expressed in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity parameters. Objective monitoring using pedometers and accelerometers offers a new opportunity to measure and communicate physical activity in terms of steps/day. Various step-based versions or translations of physical activity guidelines are emerging, reflecting public interest in such guidance. However, there appears to be a wide discrepancy in the exact values that are being communicated. It makes sense that step-based recommendations should be harmonious with existing evidence-based public health guidelines that recognize that "some physical activity is better than none" while maintaining a focus on time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Thus, the purpose of this review was to update our existing knowledge of "How many steps/day are enough?", and to inform step-based recommendations consistent with current physical activity guidelines. Normative data indicate that healthy adults typically take between 4,000 and 18,000 steps/day, and that 10,000 steps/day is reasonable for this population, although there are notable "low active populations." Interventions demonstrate incremental increases on the order of 2,000-2,500 steps/day. The results of seven different controlled studies demonstrate that there is a strong relationship between cadence and intensity. Further, despite some inter-individual variation, 100 steps/minute represents a reasonable floor value indicative of moderate intensity walking. Multiplying this cadence by 30 minutes (i.e., typical of a daily recommendation) produces a minimum of 3,000 steps that is best used as a heuristic (i.e., guiding) value, but these steps must be taken over and above habitual activity levels to be a true expression of free-living steps/day that also includes recommendations for minimal amounts of time in MVPA. Computed steps/day translations of time in MVPA that also include estimates of habitual activity levels equate to 7,100 to 11,000 steps/day. A direct estimate of minimal amounts of MVPA accumulated in the course of objectively monitored free-living behaviour is 7,000-8,000 steps/day. A scale that spans a wide range of incremental increases in steps/day and is congruent with public health recognition that "some physical activity is better than none," yet still incorporates step-based translations of recommended amounts of time in MVPA may be useful in research and practice. The full range of users (researchers to practitioners to the general public) of objective monitoring instruments that provide step-based outputs require good reference data and evidence-based recommendations to be able to design effective health messages congruent with public health physical activity guidelines, guide behaviour change, and ultimately measure, track, and interpret steps/day

The impacts of attitudes, information, situation and behaviour on problem recognition : the impact on agrichemical training

In spite of the significant benefits that can be derived from training on safe and efficient agrichemical application and management, many primary producers do not undertake formal agrichemical training. An identified reason for the low level of participation in agrichemical training is that many primary producers believe their current agrichemical practices are safe and efficient (Gee, 1993). In addition, participation in agrichemical training courses, and exposure to the benefits of information on safe and efficient agrichemical use and management, is ultimately dependent upon recognition of a need or a desire for such training on the part of primary producers (Bruner, 1986). The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that influence producers' decisions or desires for agrichemical training. A qualitative choice model is developed to evaluate the influencing factors. Conclusions drawn from the analysis are presented, and the implications for agrichemical training providers and primary sector policy analysts are discussed

Innovation diffusion with the supply chain : the Chinese apparel firms in Shenzen

Supply chain management directly affects corporate performance. Today’s supply chain management is very different from what it was a decade ago; nowadays, developing and implementing a networked, flexible supply chain that integrates all partners, (manufacturers, retailers, suppliers, carriers, and vendors), into a seamless unit is the crucial step in meeting ongoing customer demand and maintaining a competitive edge. However, effective supply chain integration can not be achieved unless the different components involved in the processes are coordinated. As the traditional ways of growing business erode, companies will increasingly depend on innovations to build up competitive advantages and carry out a holistic, fully integrated approach to their supply chain designs. By doing so, the management sectors of supply chain integration can replace conventional, functional, silo-limited thinking with the pursuit of flexibility and effectiveness. This research addresses a gap in the literature between innovation diffusion and supply chain integration. This study examines how organisations expand their efforts on supply chain integration and how they can improve their innovation efforts during the integration process. Companies that manufacture for designer labels and other apparel lines in Shenzhen, China were surveyed to examine the inter-relationship between their supply chain integration performance, their perception of the two governance mechanisms, and their innovation diffusion processes. The results showed that supply chain integration has a positive relationship with innovation diffusion and supply chain integration governance mechanisms do impact innovation diffusion processes

A logit analysis of electronic banking in New Zealand

Financial institutions have been adopting internet banking since the mid 90s, predominantly due to lower operating costs associated with internet banking, and pressure from non-banks interested in entering the internet banking market. In addition, customers utilizing internet banking facilities are increasing, as the cost savings on transactions over the internet are substantial (Mols, 1998; Sathye, 1999). Internet banking enables speedy transactions, access, time and money savings through providing free paper, and complete and up-to-date transactions. The competitive landscape of financial institutions is shifting as internet banking is no longer a competitive advantage but a competitive necessity for banks.The literature has featured numerous published research papers, articles and books addressing a wide range of issues relating to electronic banking (see Pyun, Scruggs and Nam, 2002; Li, 2002; Mols, 1999). However, there is little empirical research on the effect of electronic channels on consumer's buying behaviour (Hendrikse and Christiaanse, 2000) or banking channel preferences in New Zealand.The purpose of this research is to examine consumers' decision-making between electronic banking and non-electronic banking in New Zealand. The research uses the consumer decision making process (or paradigm) to identify factors that consumers use when deciding between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. These factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics, and individual factors. The demographic variables include age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income, and area of residence