Talking about the likelihood of risks:an agent-based simulation of discussion processes in risk workshops

Purpose This paper aims to explore drivers of the effectiveness of risk assessments in risk workshops. Design/methodology/approach This study uses an agent-based model to simulate risk assessments in risk workshops. Combining the notions of transactive memory and the ideal speech situation, this study establishes a risk assessment benchmark and then investigates real-world deviations from this benchmark. Specifically, this study models limits to information transfer, incomplete discussions and potentially detrimental group characteristics, as well as interaction patterns. Findings First, limits to information transfer among workshop participants can prevent a correct consensus. Second, increasing the required number of stable discussion rounds before an assessment improves the correct assessment of high but not low likelihood risks. Third, while theoretically advantageous group characteristics are associated with the highest assessment correctness for all risks, theoretically detrimental group characteristics are associated with the highest assessment correctness for high likelihood risks. Fourth, prioritizing participants who are particularly concerned about the risk leads to the highest level of correctness. Originality/value This study shows that by increasing the duration of simulated risk workshops, the assessments change – as a rule – from underestimating to overestimating risks, unraveling a trade-off for risk workshop facilitators. Methodologically, this approach overcomes limitations of prior research, specifically the lack of an assessment and process benchmark, the inability to disentangle multiple effects and the difficulty of capturing individual cognitive processes

Realitätsverluste oder: Komm wieder, Dr. May!: 13. Februar 2022

„Die Realität verformt sich, beziehungsweise wird sie verformt. Kolportage wird zur Wahrheit, Lügner werfen Lügenvorwürfe, die große Verschwörung. Was die einen Dummheit nennen, ist für andere unumstößliche Empirie. Das Netz der Verwirrung legt sich über die Gesellschaft. Spinnen sitzen in diesem Netz, Gift in den Drüsen. Kann nur Dr. Karl May, der große sächsische Märchenerzähler, mit seinen humanistischen und verrückten Helden helfen, oder sind die schon im Irrenhaus oder auf der Bahnhofsmission?“, fragt der Leipziger Schriftsteller Clemens Meyer, der u. a. mit seinen Romanen 'Als wir träumten' und 'Im Stein' bekannt wurde

Electron-Beam Manipulation of Silicon Dopants in Graphene

The direct manipulation of individual atoms in materials using scanning probe microscopy has been a seminal achievement of nanotechnology. Recent advances in imaging resolution and sample stability have made scanning transmission electron microscopy a promising alternative for single-atom manipulation of covalently bound materials. Pioneering experiments using an atomically focused electron beam have demonstrated the directed movement of silicon atoms over a handful of sites within the graphene lattice. Here, we achieve a much greater degree of control, allowing us to precisely move silicon impurities along an extended path, circulating a single hexagon, or back and forth between the two graphene sublattices. Even with manual operation, our manipulation rate is already comparable to the state-of-the-art in any atomically precise technique. We further explore the influence of electron energy on the manipulation rate, supported by improved theoretical modeling taking into account the vibrations of atoms near the impurities, and implement feedback to detect manipulation events in real time. In addition to atomic-level engineering of its structure and properties, graphene also provides an excellent platform for refining the accuracy of quantitative models and for the development of automated manipulation.Comment: 5 figures, 4 supporting figure