Fitting replicated multiple time series models

This paper shows that the interleaving of replicated multiple time series allows the estimation methods available in standard multiple time series packages to be applied simultaneously to each of the replicated series without loss of information. The methodology employs a non-trivial multivariate extension of an earlier univariate result involving interleaving. The interleaving approach is used to model more than sixty years of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Perth, Western Australia

Factors influencing the stable carbon isotopic composition of suspended and sinking organic matter in the coastal Antarctic sea ice environment

A high resolution time-series analysis of stable carbon isotopic signatures in particulate organic carbon (δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub>) and associated biogeochemical parameters in sea ice and surface waters provides an insight into the factors affecting δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> in the coastal western Antarctic Peninsula sea ice environment. The study covers two austral summer seasons in Ryder Bay, northern Marguerite Bay between 2004 and 2006. A shift in diatom species composition during the 2005/06 summer bloom to near-complete biomass dominance of <i>Proboscia inermis</i> is strongly correlated with a large ~10 ‰ negative isotopic shift in δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> that cannot be explained by a concurrent change in concentration or isotopic signature of CO<sub>2</sub>. We hypothesise that the δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> shift may be driven by the contrasting biochemical mechanisms and utilisation of carbon-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs) in different diatom species. Specifically, very low δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> in <i>P. inermis</i> may be caused by the lack of a CCM, whilst some diatom species abundant at times of higher δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> may employ CCMs. These short-lived yet pronounced negative δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> excursions drive a 4 ‰ decrease in the seasonal average δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> signal, which is transferred to sediment traps and core-top sediments and consequently has the potential for preservation in the sedimentary record. This 4 ‰ difference between seasons of contrasting sea ice conditions and upper water column stratification matches the full amplitude of glacial-interglacial Southern Ocean δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> variability and, as such, we invoke phytoplankton species changes as a potentially important factor influencing sedimentary δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub>. We also find significantly higher δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> in sea ice than surface waters, consistent with autotrophic carbon fixation in a semi-closed environment and possible contributions from post-production degradation, biological utilisation of HCO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> and production of exopolymeric substances. This study demonstrates the importance of surface water diatom speciation effects and isotopically heavy sea ice-derived material for δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> in Antarctic coastal environments and underlying sediments, with consequences for the utility of diatom-based δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>POC</sub> in the sedimentary record

Australian livestock export industry workers’ attitudes toward animal welfare

Understanding live export industry workers’ attitudes and beliefs toward animal welfare can provide insight into their decision-making processes and likely behavior. Industry workers (n = 265) with various roles within the supply chain were surveyed from different global regions. Participants were divided into ten categories according to their industry roles and compared using ordinal regression. Respondents were highly likely to have a positive attitude toward animal welfare; the majority of workers enjoyed working with livestock (95.8%) and agreed that livestock should be treated with respect (97.7%). Workers demonstrated a strong understanding of animal welfare concepts, 168 respondents (63.4%) provided examples of ways they had improved animal welfare in their workplace, and 164 workers (61.9%) suggested ways that animal welfare could be improved further. Most workers (95.8%) agreed that animal welfare was satisfactory in their workplace. Five out of the 24 multiple-choice responses differed significantly by the participant’s industry role, but no particular group displayed consistently divergent beliefs or attitudes. Given the community concern regarding animals in the livestock export supply chain, it is imperative to understand the attitudes of industry personnel who are responsible for the daily management of the animals. This knowledge assists in the development of animal welfare policy and can inform strategies to manage public perception

Animal welfare indicators for sheep during sea transport: The effect of voyage day and time of day

Ensuring the well-being of animals during transport is becoming an increasingly important societal concern. The Australian livestock export industry recognises the need for comprehensive monitoring and reporting on animal welfare during sea transport. It is predicted that pen-side assessments of sheep can be used to monitor environmental conditions, resource access, and animal health and behavioural outcomes throughout a sea voyage. Pen-side assessments by observation are non-invasive and practical to apply in an industry setting. This study monitored sheep using a pilot list of welfare indicators during two sea voyages from Australia to the Middle East, in contrasting seasons. Sheep behaviour, environment and resources were recorded three times daily via pen-side observations of six pens of Merino wethers (castrated males), repeated over three decks for each voyage. Behavioural outcomes were examined for the effect of sampling frequency on group assessments. The number of behavioural measures were reduced via Principal Component (PC) analysis. The primary three PC factors were tested against the time of sampling and pen location after accounting for the effect of environmental- and resource-based predictor variables. PC 1 (24.0 % of the total variance) described activity levels, with sheep on Voyage B being more active in the morning and resting or recumbent in the middle of the afternoon and evening. PC 2 (14.7 %) reflected heat responses with the majority of the variation in these data accounted for by changes in Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and manure pad moisture. The heat responses described by PC 2 also varied by voyage day (p < 0.001) and time point (p < 0.001). PC 3 scores (9.5 %) reflected flight distances and feeding behaviour and strongly correlated to WBGT and pellet consumption per head per day. Feeding behaviour generally became more competitive, and flight distances reduced as both voyages progressed. Results indicate that a comprehensive welfare monitoring protocol requires repeated daily sampling throughout a voyage. The findings of this study are pertinent for developing a sampling strategy to assess sheep welfare during sea transport

Detection of lubrication state in a field operational wind turbine gearbox bearing using ultrasonic reflectometry

Fully flooded lubrication is the ideal state for a rolling bearing; this is especially true in the aggressive environment of a wind turbine transmission where bearings are subject to intermittent operation and highly variable loading. In this paper, a novel ultrasonic reflection method is used to detect the presence of oil between rollers in the bearing. Ultrasonic sensors were instrumented on the static inner (lab) and outer (field) bearing raceways and reflections were captured as the rollers travelled past the sensor. The proportion of the sound wave reflected (known as the reflection coefficient, R) is dependent on the acoustic mismatch of the materials either side of the interface. Changes in R indicate either a steel–air or steel–oil interface as R values transitioned from 1 to 0.95, respectively, and even lower for a steel–roller interface. Consequently, it was possible to detect the presence of lubricant on the raceway between roller passes. From the laboratory measurements, the recurring reflection coefficient patterns between roller passes were used to identify the lubrication condition of the raceway. An absence of these patterns between roller passes indicated the absence of lubricant on the bearing surface. For the field measurements, three bearing lubrication conditions (partial, insufficient, and fully lubricated) were observed. Partially and insufficiently lubricated datasets were found to occur mostly during transient operation. As transient operation is often accompanied by overloading and torque reversals, coupled with the lubrication issues, these all act to increase the risk of premature bearing failure

Review of livestock welfare indicators relevant for the Australian live export industry

Animal welfare is an important issue for the live export industry (LEI), in terms of economic returns, community attitudes and international socio-political relations. Mortality has traditionally been the main welfare measure recorded within the LEI; however, high mortality incidents are usually acted upon after adverse events occur, reducing the scope for proactive welfare enhancement. We reviewed 71 potential animal welfare measures, identifying those measures that would be appropriate for use throughout the LEI for feeder and slaughter livestock species, and categorised these as animal-, environment- and resource-based. We divided the live export supply chain into three sectors: (1) Australian facilities, (2) vessel and (3) destination country facilities. After reviewing the relevant regulations for each sector of the industry, we identified 38 (sector 1), 35 (sector 2) and 26 (sector 3) measures already being collected under current practice. These could be used to form a ‘welfare information dashboard’: a LEI-specific online interface for collecting data that could contribute towards standardised industry reporting. We identified another 20, 25 and 28 measures that are relevant to each LEI sector (sectors 1, 2, 3, respectively), and that could be developed and integrated into a benchmarking system in the future

Benchmark low-mass objects in Moving Groups

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 2.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.In order to compile a sample of ultracool dwarfs that will serve as benchmarks for testing theoretical formation and evolutionary models, we selected low-mass cool (>M7) objects that are potentially members of five known young Moving Groups in the solar neighbourhood. We have studied the kinematics of the sample, finding that 49 targets belong to the young disk area, from which 36 are kinematic member of one of the five moving groups under study. Some of the identified low-mass members have been spectroscopically characterised (T-eff, log g) and confirmed as young members through a detailed study of age indicators

Loading on a wind turbine high-speed shaft gearbox bearing : ultrasonic field measurements and predictions from a multi-body simulation

Wind turbine gearbox failures, many of which result from load-driven rolling element bearing failures, account for long downtimes and high maintenance costs. Non-invasive, in-situ measurement of bearing roller loads using ultrasound facilitates better understanding of the load history and failure mechanisms these gearbox bearings experience. In this study, ultrasonic load measurements from an instrumented high-speed shaft bearing were compared against results from a static multibody simulation. Measurements taken under steady operating conditions were found to agree well with the model. After quantification of the error in ultrasonic measurements the model enabled identification of load outliers which were attributed to transient events. Over- and under-loading instances may act to promote a variety of failure mechanisms, leading to premature bearing failure

Dynamics of tournaments: the soccer case

A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared with empirical data from the English, the German and the Spanish leagues and showed a good agreement with them. The present approach enabled us to characterize a diffusion where the scores are not normally distributed, having a short and asymmetric tail extending towards more positive values. We argue that this non-Gaussian behavior is related with the difference between the teams and with the asymmetry of the scores system. In addition, we compared two tournament systems: the all-play-all and the elimination tournaments.Comment: To appear in EPJ