Risk to civilization: A planetary science perspective

One of the most profound changes in our perspective of the solar system resulting from the first quarter century of planetary exploration by spacecraft is the recognition that planets, including Earth, were bombarded by cosmic projectiles for 4.5 aeons and continue to be bombarded today. Although the planetary cratering rate is much lower now than it was during the first 0.5 aeons, sizeable Earth-approaching asteroids and comets continue to hit the Earth at a rate that poses a finite risk to civilization. The evolution of this planetary perspective on impact cratering is gradual over the last two decades. It took explorations of Mars and Mercury by early Mariner spacecraft and of the outer solar system by the Voyagers to reveal the significance of asteroidal and cometary impacts in shaping the morphologies and even chemical compositions of the planets. An unsettling implication of the new perspective is addressed: the risk to human civilization. Serious scientific attention was given to this issue in July 1981 at a NASA-sponsored Spacewatch Workshop in Snowmass, Colorado. The basic conclusion of the 1981 NASA sponsored workshop still stands: the risk that civilization might be destroyed by impact with an as-yet-undiscovered asteroid or comet exceeds risk levels that are sometimes deemed unacceptable by modern societies in other contexts. Yet these impact risks have gone almost undiscussed and undebated. The tentative quantitative assessment by some members of the 1981 workshop was that each year, civilization is threatened with destruction with a probability of about 1 in 100,000. The enormous spread in risk levels deemed by the public to be at the threshold of acceptability derives from a host of psychological factors that were widely discussed in the risk assessment literature. Slovic shows that public fears of hazards are greatest for hazards that are uncontrollable, involuntary, fatal, dreadful, globally catastrophic, and which have consequences that seem inequitable, especially if they affect future generations

A Study of the Perceived Influence of Collective Bargaining on the Functional Role of the Michigan High School Principal

Problem. The purpose of this study was to determine the perceived impact of collective bargaining on the functional role of the public high-school principal in Michigan. The study focused on the perceptions of practicing educators in Michigan. Perceptions were sought from superintendents, principals, and teachers in K-12 public school-districts. Data Collection, Methods, and Procedures. Data were collected by means of a mailed questionnaire from a sample of the 529 K-12 public-school districts in Michigan. Power analysis helped determine that 106 school districts were needed to have a significant study. Replies were received from 100 of the 106 districts for a return rate of approximately 94 percent. The survey was completed in June 1982. The data were analyzed by use of a computer to determine statistical significance. The chi-square test of analysis was used to determine statistical significance. Major Findings. There is a significant difference among the perceptions of superintendents, principals, and teachers on the perceived impact of collective bargaining on the functional role of the public high-school principal in Michigan. The superintendents perceived three (Instructional, Personnel, and Pupil services) of the five subcomponent roles to be statistically significant. The principals perceived one (Pupil services) of the five subcomponent roles to be statistically significant. The teachers perceived two (Instructional and Professional relations) of the five subcomponent roles to be statistically significant. All responding groups perceived the Community relations role to be statistically nonsignificant. The sponsorship of extracurricular activities was the item perceived as most affected by collective bargaining. Conclusions. Superintendents and teachers perceived the impact of collective bargaining on the principal to be greater than did the principals. The greatest impact was made on the Personnel role. The least impact was made on the Community-relations role. It appeared that the effect of contract implementation was considerable. Analyzation of questionnaire items showed the superintendent-principal group to be the most alike in their perceptions. Further analyzation showed the principal-teacher group to be the least alike in their perceptions. The most change was perceived by the superintendents. The least change was perceived by the principals

Neuromuscular assessment of trunk muscle function in loaded, free barbell back squat: Implications for development of trunk stability in dynamic athletic activity

Traditional core stability training was developed as a method of treating and preventing back pain. It was however, seamlessly applied to healthy and athletic populations without scientific evidence supporting its efficacy. Traditional core stability focussed on isolating and training the anatomical region between the pelvis and diaphragm, using isometric or low load exercises to enhance spinal stability. Scientific research challenged this approach for healthy function and athletic performance, resulting in a more functional anatomical definition, which included pelvic and shoulder girdles. Hence, a revised definition of dynamic trunk stability; the efficient coordination, transfer and resistance by the trunk, of force and power generated by upper and lower appendicular skeletal extremities during all human movement. This led to an integrated exercise training approach to dynamic trunk stability. Although early evidence suggested loaded compound exercises preformed upright, in particular back squat, were effective in activating and developing trunk muscles, evidence was inconclusive. Accordingly, the aims of this PhD were to investigate neuromuscular trunk function in loaded, free barbell back squat to understand training implications for trunk stability in dynamic athletic activity. Five research studies were conducted; 4 are published and 1 is being prepared for re-submission. The literature review revealed evidence that back squat was an effective method of activating trunk stabilzers and showed that these muscles were load sensitive (study 1). A survey of practitioners reported an understanding and appreciation of the challenge against core stability training for athletic populations. Furthermore, perceptions were aligned with growing evidence for dynamic and functional trunk stability training (study 2). A test-retest neuromuscular study established interday reliability and sensitivity of electromyographical measurement of trunk muscle activity in squats (study 3). Trunk muscle activation in back squat was higher than hack squat at the same relative, but lower absolute loads (study 4). Trunk muscle activation was lower in squats and bodyweight jumps in the strong compared to weak group (study 5). Furthermore, activation of the trunk muscles increased in each 30o segment of squat descent and was highest in first 30o segment of ascent for all loads (study 5). In conclusion, this series of studies confirmed acute effect of squats on trunk stabilizers and demonstrated that external load increases activation in these muscles. Parallel squat depth is important in optimizing trunk muscle activation. Finally, high levels of squat strength result in lower trunk muscle activation in loaded squats and explosive jumps

Integrated tools for control-system analysis

The basic functions embedded within a user friendly software package (MATRIXx) are used to provide a high level systems approach to the analysis of linear control systems. Various control system analysis configurations are assembled automatically to minimize the amount of work by the user. Interactive decision making is incorporated via menu options and at selected points, such as in the plotting section, by inputting data. There are five evaluations such as the singular value robustness test, singular value loop transfer frequency response, Bode frequency response, steady-state covariance analysis, and closed-loop eigenvalues. Another section describes time response simulations. A time response for random white noise disturbance is available. The configurations and key equations used for each type of analysis, the restrictions that apply, the type of data required, and an example problem are described. One approach for integrating the design and analysis tools is also presented

Does International Trump Domestic Trade? The Seed Potato Market in Canada

trade, potato, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development,

Does International Trump Domestic Trade? The Seed Potato Market in Canada

trade, potato, Canada, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,

The unavoidable costs of ethnicity : a review of evidence on health costs

This report was commissioned by the Advisory Committee on Resource Allocation (ACRA), and prepared by the Centre for Health Services Studies (CHESS) and the Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations (CRER) at the University of Warwick. The NHS Executive does not necessarily assent to the factual accuracy of the report, nor necessarily share the opinions and recommendations of the authors. The study reviews the evidence concerning the degree to which the presence of populations of minority ethnic origin was associated with ‘unavoidable additional costs’ in health service delivery. While local health authorities retail full autonomy in their use of funds allocated to them under the Hospital and Community Health Services formula, the size of that budget is governed by a set of weightings applied to their population, to allow for factors known to influence levels of need, and the costs of providing services. The study began by considering the definitions used in describing ‘ethnicity’ and ethnic groups in relevant medical and social policy literature. It is clear that no fixed set of terms can be adopted, and that flexibility is required to respond to social changes. The terms used in the 1991 Census, with additions to allow for local and contemporary developments, provide a suitable baseline but require additional information on religion language and migration history for clinical and health service delivery planning. There have been notable developments in health service strategy to meet the needs of black and minority ethnic groups which have been encouraged by good practice guidelines and local initiatives. Together with research into epidemiology and ethnic monitoring of services, these have enlarged understanding of the impact of diversity. A conceptual model is developed which explores the potential for such diversity to lead to variations in the cost of providing health services to a multi-ethnic population. The research team reviewed the existing published evidence relating to ethnic health and disease treatment in medical, social science, academic and practitioner literature, using conventional techniques. Additional evidence was located through trawls of ‘grey’ literature in specialist collections, and through contacting all English health districts with a request for information. A number of authorities and trusts provided written and oral evidence, and a bibliography of key materials is provided. Key issues considered include the need for and use of, interpreter and translation services, the incidence of ‘ethnically-specific’ disease, and variations in the prevalence and cost of treating ‘common’ conditions in minority ethnic populations. Sources of variation are discussed, and a ‘scoping’ approach adopted to explore the extent to which these variations could be adequately modelled. It is clear that while some additional costs can be identified, and seen to be unavoidable, there are other areas where the presence of minority populations may lead to lessened pressures on budgets, or where provision of ‘ethnic-specific’ facilities may be alternative to existing needs. The literature provides a range of estimates which can be used in a modelling exercise, but is deficient in many respects, particularly in terms of precise costs associated with procedure and conditions, or in associating precise and consistent categories of ethnic group with epidemiological and operational service provision data. Certain other activities require funding to set them up, and may not be directly related to population size. There is considerable variation in the approaches adopted by different health authorities, and many services are provided by agencies not funded by NHS budgets. The study was completed before the announcement of proposed changes in health service commissioning which may have other implications for ethnic diversity. The presence of minorities is associated with the need to provide additional services in respect of interpreting and translation, and the media of communication. In order to achieve clinical effectiveness, a range of advocacy support facilities or alternative models of provision seem to be desirable. Ethnic diversity requires adaptation and additional evidence in order to inform processes of consultation and commissioning. Minority populations do create demands for certain additional specific clinical services not required by the bulk of the majority population: it is not yet clear to what extent the reverse can be stated since research on ‘under-use’ is less well developed. Some variations in levels of need, particularly those relating to established clinical difference in susceptibility or deprivation, are already incorporated in funding formulae although it is not clear how far the indicators adequately reflect these factors. Costs are not necessarily simply related to the size of minority populations. The provision of services to meet minority needs is not always a reflection of their presence, but has frequently depended upon the provision of additional specific funds. There is a consensus that the NHS research and development strategy should accept the need for more work to establish the actual levels of need and usage of service by ethnic minority groups, and that effort should be made to use and improve the growing collection of relevant information through ethnic monitoring activities. A variety of modelling techniques are suggested, and can be shown to have the potential to provide practical guidance to future policy in the field. Current data availability at a national or regional scale is inadequate to provide estimates of the ‘additional costs of ethnicity’ but locally collected data and the existence of relevant policy initiatives suggest that a focused study in selected districts would provide sufficiently robust information to provide reliable estimates. The review has demonstrated that there are costs associated with the presence of minority ethnic groups in the population which can be shown to be unavoidable and additional, but that others are either ‘desirable’ or ‘alternative’. It would be wrong to assume that all cost pressures of this nature are in the same direction. Our study has drawn attention to deficiencies in data collection and budgeting which may hinder investigation of the effectiveness of the service in general. The process of drawing attention to ethnic minority needs itself leads to developments in services which are functional and desirable for the majority population