Translating global integrated assessment model output into lifestyle change pathways at the country and household level

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular output. We contribute a novel methodology for translating global scenarios into lifestyle implications at the national and household levels, which is generalisable to any service or country and versatile to work with any model or scenario. Our 5Ds method post-processes Integrated Assessment Model projections of sectoral energy demand for the global region to derive energy-service-specific lifestyle change at the household level. We illustrate the methodology for two energy services (mobility, heating) in two countries (UK, Sweden), showing how effort to reach zero carbon targets varies between countries and households. Our method creates an analytical bridge between global model output and information that can be used at national and local levels, making clear the lifestyle implications of climate targets

Capturing variation in daily energy demand profiles over time with cluster analysis in British homes (September 2019 – August 2022)

This study investigates typical domestic energy demand profiles and their variation over time. It draws on a sample of 13,000 homes from Great Britain, applying k-means cluster analysis to smart meter data on their electricity and gas demand over a three-year period from September 2019 to August 2022. Eight typical demand archetypes are identified from the data, varying in terms of the shape of their demand profile over the course of the day. These include an ‘All daytime’ archetype, where demand rises in the morning and remains high until the evening. Several other archetypes vary in terms of the presence and timing of morning and/or evening peaks. In the case of electricity demand, a ‘Midday trough’ archetype is notable for its negative midday demand and high overnight demand, likely a combination of the effects of rooftop solar panels exporting to the grid during the day and overnight charging of electric vehicles or electric storage heating. The prevalence of each archetype across the sample varies substantially in relation to different temporally-varying factors. Fluctuations in their prevalence on weekends can be identified, as can Christmas Day. Among homes with gas central heating, the prevalence of gas archetypes strongly relates to external temperature, with around half of homes fitting the ‘All daytime’ archetype at temperatures below 0 °C, and few fitting it above 14 °C. COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on work and schooling are associated with households' patterns of daily demand becoming more similar on weekdays and weekends, particularly for households with children and/or workers. The latter group had still not returned to pre-pandemic patterns by March 2022. The results indicate that patterns of daily energy demand vary with factors ranging from societal weekly rhythms and festivals to seasonal temperature changes and system shocks like pandemics, with implications for demand forecasting and policymaking

Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular output. We contribute a novel methodology for translating global scenarios into lifestyle implications at the national and household levels, which is generalisable to any service or country and versatile to work with any model or scenario. Our 5Ds method post-processes Integrated Assessment Model projections of sectoral energy demand for the global region to derive energy-service-specific lifestyle change at the household level. We illustrate the methodology for two energy services (mobility, heating) in two countries (UK, Sweden), showing how effort to reach zero carbon targets varies between countries and households. Our method creates an analytical bridge between global model output and information that can be used at national and local levels, making clear the lifestyle implications of climate targets

Flexibility of UK home heating demand: an exploration of reactions to algorithmic control

Most future scenarios for decarbonising the UK energy system include a high proportion of homes with electric heat pumps. Shifting current heating demand patterns to the electricity network would increase peak demands. Demand management to reduce this peak can only be achieved if households are prepared to accept flexible running times for their central heating. This thesis investigates what this flexibility looks like from the perspective of the households involved. The investigation centres on a case study of a trial of hybrid heat pumps (gas boiler and air source heat pump) with smart controllers. The algorithmic controllers aim to satisfy both household requirements for warmth and energy network requirements for flexible demand. A practice theory approach is used to assess design assumptions about what residents want from their heating and how they interact with the controls. Household requirements are frequently more complex than achieving steady temperatures when the home is occupied. The thermal conditions considered appropriate vary with different activities. In many of the case study homes residents preferred different temperatures at different times of day. A desire for cool bedrooms may limit the potential for preheating during the night ahead of morning peak demand periods. Residents are concerned not only with temperature but also the running pattern of the heating. Some households noticed unwelcome consequences of changed running patterns (for example, noise at night time) and in some instances the residents did not understand how to adjust control settings to achieve their preferred response. High levels of manual operation were seen in some homes. A few households were frequently altering setpoints to stop or start the heating, rather than relying on automated, pre-scheduled settings. This mode of operation limits the potential for demand management based on predictable, scheduled heating operation

Actors, networks, and translation hubs: Gas central heating as a rapid socio-technical transition in the United Kingdom

To achieve UK government targets to reduce carbon emissions by 80% on 1990 levels by 2050 will require a radical shift in domestic heating practices, which are currently dominated by gas central heating,1 installed in 82% of UK homes (Palmer and Cooper, 2014). Using a socio-technical systems analysis, based on Actor Network Theory, this paper examines what can be learned from previous transitions in heating, in particular the series of changes which led from the majority of UK homes being heated by open coal fires in the middle of the twentieth century, to a very high proportion of gas central heating by the end of the century. Two stages of transition are investigated: the expansion of central heating use in the 1950s and early 1960s, initiated by new technology development by the coal industry, followed by the dramatic increase in the use of gas for home heating as the supply was converted to North Sea gas in the late 1960s through to the 1970s. How did a new technology (small bore central heating systems) spread rapidly and effectively, and how was a fundamental change to a natural gas fuel infrastructure achieved? What does this tell us about the establish of strong and stable heating networks, and what are the lessons for future transitions to low carbon heating systems

Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular output. We contribute a novel methodology for translating global scenarios into lifestyle implications at the national and household levels, which is generalisable to any service or country and versatile to work with any model or scenario. Our 5Ds method post-processes Integrated Assessment Model projections of sectoral energy demand for the global region to derive energy-service-specific lifestyle change at the household level. We illustrate the methodology for two energy services (mobility, heating) in two countries (UK, Sweden), showing how effort to reach zero carbon targets varies between countries and households. Our method creates an analytical bridge between global model output and information that can be used at national and local levels, making clear the lifestyle implications of climate targets

Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular output. We contribute a novel methodology for translating global scenarios into lifestyle implications at the national and household levels, which is generalisable to any service or country and versatile to work with any model or scenario. Our 5Ds method post-processes Integrated Assessment Model projections of sectoral energy demand for the global region to derive energy-service-specific lifestyle change at the household level. We illustrate the methodology for two energy services (mobility, heating) in two countries (UK, Sweden), showing how effort to reach zero carbon targets varies between countries and households. Our method creates an analytical bridge between global model output and information that can be used at national and local levels, making clear the lifestyle implications of climate targets

SI-Ocean Strategic technology agenda for the ocean energy sector: From development to market

This paper focuses on the development of the ocean energy sector, identifying the necessary steps that are required in order to facilitate the development and deployment of ocean energy technologies towards the formation of a viable and successful industry. Europe, in particular the Atlantic Arc region, has a vast wave and tidal energy resource, which could supply a significant part of the European electricity demand and play an important role in the future European energy mix. The sector is still in a nascent state, with the most advanced prototypes currently undergoing long-term testing to prove reliability, operability and durability of the devices. At the current stage of development, effort is needed to secure the correct technology solutions and the underpinning policies that will allow growth of the ocean energy sector, facilitating competitive and sustainable development. The sector has seen the announcement of numerous ambitious targets; however, the current deployed capacity is small. The step from pre-commercial device demonstration to array demonstration requires significant investment, and sustained long term support mechanisms will be required in order to allow the first array projects to take off. Sustained engagement with industry, in both stakeholder interviews and a supply chain focussed workshop, has allowed for a diverse range of inputs into what is a challenging and demanding topic within the ocean energy sector: Providing recommendations for overcoming the barriers facing the wave and tidal energy sector. Facilitating development and deployment of nascent ocean energy technology to allow commercialisation of technology, and formation of a viable and successful industry, is critical for a successful future for this emerging renewable energy technology. A list of actions required for the implementation of the sector has been identified and prioritised through collaboration with the broader wave and tidal energy sectors. These actions are fundamental in achieving performance improvement and cost reduction targets for the sectors. The implementation of recommended actions through joint research and industrial activities, addressing the themes presented in this document, plays an important role in achieving the critical mass and effectiveness required to ensure technologies are ready for deployment across Europe. By working together, the ocean energy stakeholders within both industry and the supply-chain can demonstrate that the sector is capable of large-scale technology production, addressing the three-fold challenge of energy security, CO2 emission reduction, and inward investment within the EU. It is only through achievement of these challenges that the sector can gain traction and accelerate towards 2030 and 2050 ocean energy deployment and commercialisation targets and become a substantial part of the future European energy mix. This paper presents recommendations which could represent a key opportunity to reinforce Europe’s leadership in RD&D as the ocean energy sector progresses from concept to market penetration and will provide direct input into the development of a Market Deployment Strategy for the sector.JRC.F.6-Energy Technology Policy Outloo