Designing an expert knowledge-based Systemic Importance Index for financial institutions

Defining whether a financial institution is systemically important (or not) is challenging due to (i) the inevitability of combining complex importance criteria such as institutions’ size, connectedness and substitutability; (ii) the ambiguity of what an appropriate threshold for those criteria may be; and (iii) the involvement of expert knowledge as a key input for combining those criteria. The proposed method, a Fuzzy Logic Inference System, uses four key systemic importance indicators that capture institutions’ size, connectedness and substitutability, and a convenient deconstruction of expert knowledge to obtain a Systemic Importance Index. This method allows for combining dissimilar concepts in a non-linear, consistent and intuitive manner, whilst considering them as continuous –non binary- functions. Results reveal that the method imitates the way experts them-selves think about the decision process regarding what a systemically important financial institution is within the financial system under analysis. The Index is a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution’s systemic importance. It may serve financial authorities as a quantitative tool for focusing their attention and resources where the severity resulting from an institution failing or near-failing is estimated to be the greatest. It may also serve for enhanced policy-making (e.g. prudential regulation, oversight and supervision) and decision-making (e.g. resolving, restructuring or providing emergency liquidity).Systemic Importance, Systemic Risk, Fuzzy Logic, Approximate Reasoning, Too-connected-to-fail, Too-big-to-fail. Classification JEL: D85, C63, E58, G28.

Ranging behavior of female and male Shiny Cowbirds and Screaming Cowbirds while searching for host nests

Pusimos a prueba la hipótesis que los tordos parásitos de cría buscan y localizan nidos de hospedadores dentro de un área relativamente constante, ya que esto facilitaría el monitoreo de nidos a través del tiempo y la sincronización del parasitismo con la puesta del hospedador. Testeamos esta hipótesis en Molothrus bonariensis y M. rufoaxillaris, dos especies que difieren en su especificidad de uso de hospedadores y, aparentemente, en su sistema de apareamiento social, mediante radio telemetría de hembras y machos durante 3–6 días consecutivos, determinando las áreas de acción diarias y las áreas de acción acumuladas. En M. bonariensis, el tamaño medio de las áreas de acción diarias y de las áreas de acción acumuladas fue mayor para los machos que para las hembras, pero no encontramos diferencias entre sexos en M. rufoaxillaris. En ambas especies, hubo un extenso solapamiento de las áreas de acción de cada hembra en días consecutivos y la incorporación de área nueva disminuyó a través del tiempo. Tanto para M. bonariensis como para M. rufoaxillaris, las áreas de acción de hembras conespecíficas monitoreadas en un mismo día se solaparon, indicando ausencia de territorialidad. Los machos y hembras de M. rufoaxillaris que fueron capturados juntos se mantuvieron asociados espacialmente durante el monitoreo, indicando monogamia social. La mayoría de los individuos de M. bonariensis y M. rufoaxillaris monitoreados usaron principalmente un dormidero relativamente cercano a sus áreas de acción, el cual fue mantenido durante la temporada reproductiva. Nuestros resultados muestran que las hembras de M. bonariensis y M. rufoaxillaris usan áreas relativamente constantes para buscar nidos y que existe monogamia social en M. rufoaxillaris.Brood-parasitic cowbirds are hypothesized to search for and locate host nests within a relatively constant area, as this is presumed to facilitate the monitoring of nests over time and the synchronization of parasitism with host laying. We tested this hypothesis in Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis) and Screaming Cowbirds (M. rufoaxillaris), two cowbird species that differ in host specificity and, apparently, in social mating system, by radio-tracking females and males for 3–6 consecutive days and determining individual daily morning ranges and cumulative morning ranges. In Shiny Cowbirds, the mean size of morning daily ranges and cumulative morning ranges was larger for males than for females, but we did not find a difference between the sexes in range size for Screaming Cowbirds. In both species, there was extensive overlap in the morning ranges of individual females between consecutive days, and the addition of new area to their ranges decreased over time. For both Shiny and Screaming cowbirds, morning ranges of conspecific females radio-tracked the same day overlapped, indicating lack of territoriality. Male and female Screaming Cowbirds that were trapped together were also spatially associated during radio-tracking, indicating social monogamy. Most radio-tracked Shiny and Screaming cowbirds used mainly one roost, relatively close to their morning ranges, which was maintained throughout the breeding season. Our results show that Shiny and Screaming cowbird females use relatively constant areas for nest searching and that Screaming Cowbirds are socially monogamous.Fil: Scardamaglia, Romina Clara. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geociencias Basicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geociencias Basicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Reboreda, Juan Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geociencias Basicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geociencias Basicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Weak Allee effects population growth models in a random environment

Based on a deterministic model of population growth with weak Allee e ffects, we propose a general stochastic model that incorporates environmental random fluctuations in the growth process. We study the model properties, existence and uniqueness of solution, the stationary behavior and mean and variance of the time to extinction of the population. We then consider as an example the particular case of a stochastic model with Allee e ffects based on the classic logistic model.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia e CIMA, Projeto UID/MAT/04674/201

Too-connected-to-fail Institutions and Payments System’s Stability: Assessing Challenges for Financial Authorities

The most recent episode of market turmoil exposed the limitations resulting from the traditional focus on too-big-to-fail institutions within an increasingly systemic-crisis-prone financial system, and encouraged the appearance of the too-connected-to-fail (TCTF) concept. The TCTF concept conveniently broadens the base of potential destabilizing institutions beyond the traditional banking-focused approach to systemic risk, but requires methodologies capable of coping with complex, cross-dependent, context-dependent and non-linear systems. After comprehensively introducing the rise of the TCTF concept, this paper presents a robust, parsimonious and powerful approach to identifying and assessing systemic risk within payments systems, and proposes some analytical routes for assessing financial authorities’ challenges. Banco de la Republica’s approach is based on a convenient mixture of network topology basics for identifying central institutions, and payments systems simulation techniques for quantifying the potential consequences of central institutions failing within Colombian large-value payments systems. Unlike econometrics or network topology alone, results consist of a rich set of quantitative outcomes that capture the complexity, cross-dependency, context-dependency and non-linearity of payments systems, but conveniently disaggregated and dollar-denominated. These outcomes and the proposed analysis provide practical information for enhanced policy and decision-making, where the ability to measure each institution’s contribution to systemic risk may assist financial authorities in their task to achieve payments system’s stability.Payments systems, too-connected-to-fail, too-big-to-fail, systemic risk, network topology, simulation, central bank liquidity. Classification JEL:E58, E44, C63, G21, D85.

A critical analysis of Peru's HIV grant proposals to the Global Fund.

Peru has applied to six of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) rounds for funding, achieving success on four occasions. The process of proposal development has, however, been criticised, especially concerning the use of evidence, relevance/consistency and performance indicators. We aimed to analyse the Peruvian Global Fund proposals according to those dimensions, providing feedback to improve future local efforts and inform global discussions around Global Fund procedures. We analysed the content of four HIV-focused proposals (rounds 2, 5, 6 and 8) regarding epidemic context, needs identification and prioritisation and monitoring and evaluation systems. Peruvian proposals submitted after round 1 were described as resulting from collaborative inputs involving formerly unrepresented sectors, principally 'vulnerable populations'. However, difficulties arose regarding the amount and quality of evidence about the epidemiological context; limited consideration of social determinants of the epidemic; lack of theory-driven interventions, and little synergy across projects and the inclusion of weak monitoring and evaluation systems, with poor indicators and measurement procedures. Prioritising the development of analytical and technical skills to generate Global Fund proposals would enhance the country's capacity to produce and utilise evidence, improve the technical-political interface, strengthen information systems and lead to more informed decision making and accountability

Sistema de energia híbrido regenerativo (S.E.H.R.) para alimentação de estações de telecomunicações em Angola

Esta dissertação tem como objectivo demonstrar a aplicabilidade técnica associada a uma análise económica da aplicação de sistemas de energia híbridos regenerativos (S.E.H.R.) em equipamentos remotos de telecomunicações em território angolano. Embora Angola seja um país que é grande produtor e exportador de combustíveis fósseis, nomeadamente petróleo, existem carências graves ao nível da distribuição e refinação do mesmo, sendo assim um país que tem um deficit energético enorme, onde é muito comum a existência de “apagões” mesmo na sua capital Luanda. Tal facto provoca a necessidade de busca de fontes de energia alternativas à da Empresa de Distribuição de Electricidade (EDEL), sendo que é muito comum a existência e a utilização de geradores a diesel nas casas da classe média e alta angolana. As filas para o abastecimento de combustível são enormes a qualquer hora do dia e noite, e são potenciadas pela existência maioritária de veículos de alta cilindrada, normalmente de tracção 4X4, associada à escassez de pontos de distribuição de combustível refinado. Há um forte desequilíbrio aparente entre a oferta e a procura. Sendo um país que saiu de um conflito interno armado em 2002, há a necessidade de reconstruir as infra-estruturas deste país que tem cerca de 17 milhões de habitantes (dos quais se estima que 6 a 7 milhões1 estejam na área metropolitana de Luanda) e uma área de 1.246,700 km² (cerca de 14,5 vezes maior do que Portugal). Aqui as telecomunicações têm um papel fundamental, aproximando o país, garantindo a informação e contribuindo para a redução do isolamento das populações. Não tendo infra-estruturas de rede fixa que consigam garantir de forma cabal e consistente as necessidades do país, os Sistemas de Telecomunicações Móveis ganham uma importância fulcral para o desenvolvimento e aproximação das populações, sendo que necessitam de energia para laborar, e assim se torna necessário garantir o seu funcionamento do ponto de vista energético. Assim sendo, foi efectuado uma análise técnica, associada a uma apreciação económica, para um site de telecomunicações da última geração (3G), a colocar em Angola, garantindo o seu funcionamento através de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV), eólicos, a hidrogénio, com o auxilio de um gerador a diesel, e deixando o sistema preparado para uma eventual chegada de energia através da EDEL

Desarrollo de un sistema de gestión en control y seguridad basc (business anti smuggling coalition) para una empresa administradora de recursos humanos

La empresa objeto de estudio es una empresa multinacional Administradora de Recursos Humanos, que ofrece servicios de administración de nómina y de personal con responsabilidad laboral, maquila de nóminas, provisión de personal, capacitación y evaluación. BASC es una asociación sin fines de lucro cuya misión es promover y apoyar dentro de sus asociados el fortalecimiento de los estándares de control y seguridad de la cadena logística en las actividades de comercio exterior con la ejecución de acciones preventivas y de control. Como la empresa en cuestión provee de personal a diferentes empresas a lo largo de la cadena logística de diversos productos, se ha considerado que la empresa debe alinearse con los principios de la certificación BASC. Esto se lo hace como una estrategia de diferenciación seleccionando y ofreciendo personal altamente garantizado y calificado por una norma internacional, con esto la empresa en cuestión obtendrá un mejor aprovechamiento de los recursos e imagen, mejores oportunidades de marketing a través de la mayor aceptación de sus servicios. The studied company is an multinational administrator of human resources, that offers administration in roll services personal responsibilities, personal provisions, capacitating and evaluation. BASC is a non-profit organization which mission is promote and support the associates, the control fortifications, chain security in the international commercialization with ejecution of preventive control and actions. As the questioned company offers personal to the different clients, is considered that the company has to get involve with principal certificates of the BASC. This is made as a strategy of differentiation selecting and offering personal able to work well and garanted. Under this regimen the company will have better opportunities of marketing and the best acceptation for its services

Exergetic analysis of hybrid photovoltaic - thermal solar collectors coupled to organic rankine cycles

In this work, the application of hybrid solar modules that combine photovoltaic panels and solar thermal collectors coupled with a low-temperature thermal cycle such as the Organic Rankine Cycle is discussed, their main purpose being an increase in the total electric power production per available area. This work will study the thermal and electrical power production efficiency of the hybrid system, the increase in the PV module electric conversion efficiency due to their cooling through heat transfer to the thermal cycle and the total exergetic efficiency of the system. A simplified simulation of the system in steady state conditions based on a thermal efficiency model will be performed with the aid of the EES (Engineering Equation Solver) software using climate data from Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The study shows that while the PV/T+ORC system does fulfill the purpose of increasing the electrical power generation both from the generator coupled to the thermal cycle and from the increase in the PV module efficiency due to its cooling. Thus, there is an increase the overall exergy efficiency of the system compared to uncoupled PV/T collectors28411

Profit optimization for cattle growing in a randomly fluctuating environment

A class of stochastic differential equation models was applied to describe the evolution of the weight of Mertolengo cattle. We have determined the optimal mean profit obtained by selling an animal at the cattle market, using two approaches. One consists in determining the optimal selling age (independently of the weight) and the other consists in selling the animal when a fixed optimal weight is achieved for the first time (independently of the age). The profit probability distribution can be computed for such optimal age/weight. For typical market values, we observed that the second approach achieves a higher optimal mean profit compared with the first one, and, in most cases, even provides a lower standard deviation