An inventory of river anomalies in the Po Plain, Northern Italy: evidence for active blind thrust faulting

The Po Plain is a low-relief area characterised by active shortening accommodated by blind thrust faulting. In this almost flat region depositional rates are similar to tectonic rates and deformation is seldom expressed by noticeable surface anticlines. We adopted a geomorphological approach based on the detailed analysis of the drainage network to identify the location of active thrust faults. A total of 36 anomalies represented by sudden river diversions and shifts in channel pattern were accurately mapped. After comparison with the location of subsurface buried anticlines and of historical seismicity, these anomalies could be related to a tectonic origin and included in a database. Their distribution highlights the activity of the buried outer thrust fronts of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Among all the anomalies, we identified one related to the seismogenic source responsible for the 12 May 1802 earthquake (Me 5.7), which struck the Oglio River Valley near Soncino (Cremona). We propose that this earthquake was generated by an east-west trending, north-dipping, blind thrust fault that roots into the Alpine system. If this inference is correct, other faults along the Southern Alpine margin are potentially seismogenic

Cost of coexisting with a relict large carnivore population: Impact of apennine brown bears, 2005–2015

Human-carnivore conflicts are a major conservation issue. As bears are expanding their range in Europe’s human-modified landscapes, it is increasingly important to understand, prevent, and address human-bear conflicts and evaluate mitigation strategies in areas of historical coexis-tence. Based on verified claims, we assessed costs, patterns, and drivers of bear damages in the relict Apennine brown bear population in the Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park (PNALM), central Italy. During 2005–2015, 203 ± 71 (SD) damage events were verified annually, equivalent to 75,987 ± 30,038 €/year paid for compensation. Most damages occurred in summer and fall, with livestock depredation, especially sheep and cattle calves, prevailing over other types of damages, with apiaries ranking second in costs of compensation. Transhumant livestock owners were less impacted than residential ones, and farms that adopted prevention measures loaned from the PNALM were less susceptible to bear damages. Livestock farms chronically damaged by bears represented 8 ± 3% of those annually impacted, corresponding to 24 ± 6% of compensation costs. Further improvements in the conflict mitigation policy adopted by the PNALM include integrated prevention, conditional compensation, and participatory processes. We discuss the implications of our study for Human-bear coexistence in broader contexts

Model Reduction for Multiscale Lithium-Ion Battery Simulation

In this contribution we are concerned with efficient model reduction for multiscale problems arising in lithium-ion battery modeling with spatially resolved porous electrodes. We present new results on the application of the reduced basis method to the resulting instationary 3D battery model that involves strong non-linearities due to Buttler-Volmer kinetics. Empirical operator interpolation is used to efficiently deal with this issue. Furthermore, we present the localized reduced basis multiscale method for parabolic problems applied to a thermal model of batteries with resolved porous electrodes. Numerical experiments are given that demonstrate the reduction capabilities of the presented approaches for these real world applications

Experimental feeding validates nanofluidic array technology for DNA detection of ungulate prey in wolf scats

The study of carnivores' diet is a key component to enhance knowledge on the ecology of predators and their effect on prey populations. Although molecular approaches to detect prey DNA in carnivore scats are improving, the validation of their accuracy, a prerequisite for reliable applications within ecological frameworks, is still lagging behind the methodological advances. Indeed, variation in detection probability among prey species can occur, representing a potentially insidious source of bias in food-habit studies of carnivores. Calibration of DNA-based methods involves the optimization of specificity and sensitivity and, whereas priority is usually given to the former to avoid false positives, sensitivity is rarely investigated so that false negatives may be largely overlooked. We conducted feeding trials with captive wolves (Canis lupus) to validate a nanofluidic array technology recently developed for the detection of multiple prey species in scats. Using 371 scat samples from 12 wolves fed with a single-prey diet, the sensitivity of our nanofluidic array method varied between 0.45 and 0.95 for the six main ungulate prey species. The method sensitivity was enhanced by using multiple markers per species and by a relatively low threshold of number of amplifying markers required to confirm a detection. Yet, at least two markers should be used to avoid false positives. By acknowledging sources of bias in sensitivity to reliably interpret the results of DNA-based dietary methods, our study highlights the relevance of feeding experiments to optimally calibrate the relative thresholds to define a positive detection and investigate the occurrence and extent of biases in sensitivity

Local attitudes toward Apennine brown bears: Insights for conservation issues

Human-carnivore coexistence is a multi-faceted issue that requires an understanding of the diverse attitudes and perspectives of the communities living with large carnivores. To inform initiatives that encourage behaviors in line with conservation goals, we focused on assessing the two components of attitudes (i.e., feelings and beliefs), as well as norms of local communities coexisting with Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) for a long time. This bear population is under serious extinction risks due to its persistently small population size, which is currently confined to the long-established protected area of Abruzzo, Lazio and Molise National Park (PNALM) and its surrounding region in central Italy. We interviewed 1,611 residents in the PNALM to determine attitudes and values toward bears. We found that support for the bear's legal protection was widespread throughout the area, though beliefs about the benefits of conserving bears varied across geographic administrative districts. Our results showed that residents across our study areas liked bears. At the same time, areas that received more benefits from tourism were more strongly associated with positive feelings toward bears. Such findings provide useful information to improve communication efforts of conservation authorities with local communities

Are large carnivores the real issue? Solutions for improving conflict management through stakeholder participation

Social conflicts around large carnivores are increasing in Europe, often associated to the species expansion into human-modified and agricultural landscapes. Large carnivores can be seen as an added value by some but as a source of difficulties by others, depending on different val-ues, attitudes, livelihoods, and everyday activities. Therefore, the effective involvement of the different interest groups is important to identify and shape tailored solutions that can potentially be implemented, complementing top-down approaches that might, on their own, result in lack of implementation and buy-in. To improve dialogue in conflictual situations, as part of a European project promoted by the European Parliament, we assessed the practical implementation of participatory processes in three sample areas in Europe where wolves and bears have recently been increasingly impacting human activities. Our results demonstrate that collaboration among different and generally contrasting groups is possible. Even in situations where large-carnivore impacts were seen as unsatisfactorily managed for many years, people were still willing and eager to be involved in alternative discussion processes hoping this would lead to concrete solutions. An important and common highlight among the three study areas was that all the management interventions agreed upon shared the general scope of improving the conditions of the groups most impacted by large carnivores. The process showed the importance of building trust and supporting dialogue for knowledge co-production and mitigation of conflicts between stakeholders and that controversial environmental issues have the potential to trigger a meaningful dialogue about broader societal issues. The direct involvement and support of competent authorities, as well as the upscaling of this process at larger administrative and social scales, remain important challenges

The influence of road networks on brown bear spatial distribution and habitat suitability in a human-modified landscape

Roads are human infrastructure that heavily affect wildlife, often with marked impacts on carnivores, including brown bears Ursus arctos. Here, we assessed the potential impact of road networks on the distribution of brown bears in the small, isolated and endangered Cantabrian population of north-western Spain. To ascertain whether local road networks affect brown bear spatial distribution, we first assessed potential influences on the distance of bear locations to roads using candidate models which included topographic variables, landcover types, bear age and reproductive status, traffic volume and road visibility. Then, we built two sets of habitat suitability models, both with and without roads, to discern the possible loss of habitat suitability caused by roads. The mean distance of bear locations to the nearest road was 968 804 m and the closest road was a low traffic road in 72.5% of cases. Candidate models showed little influence of our variables on bear distance to the nearest road, with the exception of elevation. Habitat suitability models revealed that road networks in our study area seem to have almost no effect on brown bear habitat suitability, except for females with yearlings during the denning season. However, this result may also be a consequence of the fact that only a small proportion (16.5%) of the cells classified as suitable bear habitats were crossed by roads, that is, most of the roads are primarily located in unsuitable bear habitats in the Cantabrian Mountains. Compared to previous studies conducted in other populations, mainly North American ones, our findings might suggest a different response of Eurasian brown bears to roads due to a longer bear-human coexistence in Europe versus North America. However, the indirect approach used in our study does not exclude other detrimental effects, for example, road mortality, increased stress and movement pattern disruption, only detectable by more direct approaches such as telemetry

The relationship between the systemic inflammatory response, tumour proliferative activity, T-lymphocytic and macrophage infiltration, microvessel density and survival in patients with primary operable breast cancer

The significance of the inter-relationship between tumour and host local/systemic inflammatory responses in primary operable invasive breast cancer is limited. The inter-relationship between the systemic inflammatory response (pre-operative white cell count, C-reactive protein and albumin concentrations), standard clinicopathological factors, tumour T-lymphocytic (CD4+ and CD8+) and macrophage (CD68+) infiltration, proliferative (Ki-67) index and microvessel density (CD34+) was examined using immunohistochemistry and slide-counting techniques, and their prognostic values were examined in 168 patients with potentially curative resection of early-stage invasive breast cancer. Increased tumour grade and proliferative activity were associated with greater tumour T-lymphocyte (P<0.05) and macrophage (P<0.05) infiltration and microvessel density (P<0.01). The median follow-up of survivors was 72 months. During this period, 31 patients died; 18 died of their cancer. On univariate analysis, increased lymph-node involvement (P<0.01), negative hormonal receptor (P<0.10), lower albumin concentrations (P<0.01), increased tumour proliferation (P<0.05), increased tumour microvessel density (P<0.05), the extent of locoregional control (P<0.0001) and limited systemic treatment (Pless than or equal to0.01) were associated with cancer-specific survival. On multivariate analysis of these significant covariates, albumin (HR 4.77, 95% CI 1.35–16.85, P=0.015), locoregional treatment (HR 3.64, 95% CI 1.04–12.72, P=0.043) and systemic treatment (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.23–4.27, P=0.009) were significant independent predictors of cancer-specific survival. Among tumour-based inflammatory factors, only tumour microvessel density (P<0.05) was independently associated with poorer cancer-specific survival. The host inflammatory responses are closely associated with poor tumour differentiation, proliferation and malignant disease progression in breast cancer