Measuring precise radial velocities and cross-correlation function line-profile variations using a Skew Normal density

Context. Stellar activity is one of the primary limitations to the detection of low-mass exoplanets using the radial-velocity (RV) technique. Stellar activity can be probed by measuring time-dependent variations in the shape of the cross-correlation function (CCF). It is therefore critical to measure with high-precision these shape variations to decorrelate the signal of an exoplanet from spurious RV signals caused by stellar activity. Aims. We propose to estimate the variations in shape of the CCF by fitting a Skew Normal (SN) density which, unlike the commonly employed Normal density, includes a Skewness parameter to capture the asymmetry of the CCF induced by stellar activity and the convective blueshift. Methods. We compared the performances of the proposed method to the commonly employed Normal density using both simulations and real observations with different levels of activity and signal-to-noise ratios. Results. When considering real observations, the correlation between the RV and the asymmetry of the CCF and between the RV and the width of the CCF are stronger when using the parameters estimated with the SN density rather than those obtained with the commonly employed Normal density. In particular, the strongest correlations have been obtained when using the mean of the SN as an estimate for the RV. This suggests that the CCF parameters estimated using a SN density are more sensitive to stellar activity, which can be helpful when estimating stellar rotational periods and when characterizing stellar activity signals. Using the proposed SN approach, the uncertainties estimated on the RV defined as the median of the SN are on average 10% smaller than the uncertainties calculated on the mean of the Normal. The uncertainties estimated on the asymmetry parameter of the SN are on average 15% smaller than the uncertainties measured on the Bisector Inverse Slope Span (BIS SPAN), which is the commonly used parameter to evaluate the asymmetry of the CCF. We also propose a new model to account for stellar activity when fitting a planetary signal to RV data. Based on simple simulations, we were able to demonstrate that this new model improves the planetary detection limits by 12% compared to the model commonly used to account for stellar activity. Conclusions. The SN density is a better model than the Normal density for characterizing the CCF since the correlations used to probe stellar activity are stronger and the uncertainties of the RV estimate and the asymmetry of the CCF are both smaller.Peer reviewe

Accounting for stellar activity signals in radial-velocity data by using change point detection techniques star

Context. Active regions on the photosphere of a star have been the major obstacle for detecting Earth-like exoplanets using the radial velocity (RV) method. A commonly employed solution for addressing stellar activity is to assume a linear relationship between the RV observations and the activity indicators along the entire time series, and then remove the estimated contribution of activity from the variation in RV data (overall correction method). However, since active regions evolve on the photosphere over time, correlations between the RV observations and the activity indicators will correspondingly be anisotropic. Aims. We present an approach that recognizes the RV locations where the correlations between the RV and the activity indicators significantly change in order to better account for variations in RV caused by stellar activity. Methods. The proposed approach uses a general family of statistical breakpoint methods, often referred to as change point detection (CPD) algorithms; several implementations of which are available in R and python. A thorough comparison is made between the breakpoint-based approach and the overall correction method. To ensure wide representativity, we use measurements from real stars that have different levels of stellar activity and whose spectra have different signal-to-noise ratios. Results. When the corrections for stellar activity are applied separately to each temporal segment identified by the breakpoint method, the corresponding residuals in the RV time series are typically much smaller than those obtained by the overall correction method. Consequently, the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram contains a smaller number of peaks caused by active regions. The CPD algorithm is particularly effective when focusing on active stars with long time series, such as alpha Cen B. In that case, we demonstrate that the breakpoint method improves the detection limit of exoplanets by 74% on average with respect to the overall correction method. Conclusions. CPD algorithms provide a useful statistical framework for estimating the presence of change points in a time series. Since the process underlying the RV measurements generates anisotropic data by its intrinsic properties, it is natural to use CPD to obtain cleaner signals from RV data. We anticipate that the improved exoplanet detection limit may lead to a widespread adoption of such an approach. Our test on the HD 192310 planetary system is encouraging, as we confirm the presence of the two hosted exoplanets and we determine orbital parameters consistent with the literature, also providing much more precise estimates for HD 192310 c.Peer reviewe

Accounting for stellar activity signals in radial-velocity data by using change point detection techniques star

Context. Active regions on the photosphere of a star have been the major obstacle for detecting Earth-like exoplanets using the radial velocity (RV) method. A commonly employed solution for addressing stellar activity is to assume a linear relationship between the RV observations and the activity indicators along the entire time series, and then remove the estimated contribution of activity from the variation in RV data (overall correction method). However, since active regions evolve on the photosphere over time, correlations between the RV observations and the activity indicators will correspondingly be anisotropic. Aims. We present an approach that recognizes the RV locations where the correlations between the RV and the activity indicators significantly change in order to better account for variations in RV caused by stellar activity. Methods. The proposed approach uses a general family of statistical breakpoint methods, often referred to as change point detection (CPD) algorithms; several implementations of which are available in R and python. A thorough comparison is made between the breakpoint-based approach and the overall correction method. To ensure wide representativity, we use measurements from real stars that have different levels of stellar activity and whose spectra have different signal-to-noise ratios. Results. When the corrections for stellar activity are applied separately to each temporal segment identified by the breakpoint method, the corresponding residuals in the RV time series are typically much smaller than those obtained by the overall correction method. Consequently, the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram contains a smaller number of peaks caused by active regions. The CPD algorithm is particularly effective when focusing on active stars with long time series, such as alpha Cen B. In that case, we demonstrate that the breakpoint method improves the detection limit of exoplanets by 74% on average with respect to the overall correction method. Conclusions. CPD algorithms provide a useful statistical framework for estimating the presence of change points in a time series. Since the process underlying the RV measurements generates anisotropic data by its intrinsic properties, it is natural to use CPD to obtain cleaner signals from RV data. We anticipate that the improved exoplanet detection limit may lead to a widespread adoption of such an approach. Our test on the HD 192310 planetary system is encouraging, as we confirm the presence of the two hosted exoplanets and we determine orbital parameters consistent with the literature, also providing much more precise estimates for HD 192310 c.Peer reviewe

Realizing the potential of astrostatistics and astroinformatics

This Astro2020 State of the Profession Consideration White Paper highlights the growth of astrostatistics and astroinformatics in astronomy, identifies key issues hampering the maturation of these new subfields, and makes recommendations for structural improvements at different levels that, if acted upon, will make significant positive impacts across astronomy

The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project II. State of the Field in Disentangling Photospheric Velocities

Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme-precision radial-velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The Extreme-precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed radial-velocity (RV) correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV rms than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV rms to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets—such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals—to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved

The Role of Machine Learning in the Next Decade of Cosmology

In recent years, machine learning (ML) methods have remarkably improved how cosmologists can interpret data. The next decade will bring new opportunities for data-driven cosmological discovery, but will also present new challenges for adopting ML methodologies and understanding the results. ML could transform our field, but this transformation will require the astronomy community to both foster and promote interdisciplinary research endeavors