Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows

A Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood function includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the rue phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to informative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.ANR-11-MONU-008-00

Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.ANR UF

Toward improved simulation tools for compressible turbomachinery: assessment of Residual-Based Compact schemes for the transonic compressor NASA Rotor 37

Residual-based-compact schemes (RBC) of 2nd and 3rd-order accuracy are applied to a challenging 3D ow through a transonic compressor. The proposed schemes provide almost mesh-converged solutions in good agreement with experimental data on relatively coarse grids, which allows achieving a given accuracy level with computational cost reductions by a factor between 2 and 4 with respect to standard solvers.FP7- Projet IDIHO

Enrolling patients into multiple trials: it is time for glastnost

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Data-driven turbulence modeling

This chapter provides an introduction to data-driven techniques for the development and calibration of closure models for the Reynolds-Averaged Navier--Stokes (RANS) equations. RANS models are the workhorse for engineering applications of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and are expected to play an important role for decades to come. However, RANS model inadequacies for complex, non-equilibrium flows and uncertainties in modeling assumptions and calibration data are still a major obstacle to the predictive capability of RANS simulations. In the following, we briefly recall the origin and limitations of RANS models, and then review their shortcomings and uncertainties. Then, we provide an introduction to data-driven approaches to RANS turbulence modeling. The latter can range from simple model parameter inference to sophisticated machine learning techniques. We conclude with some perspectives on current and future research trends.Comment: Presented during the von Karman Institute Lecture Series "Machine Learning for Fluid Mechanics", held in Brussels, January 29th-February 2nd, 202

On the design of high order residual-based dissipation for unsteady compressible flows

none3The numerical dissipation operator of Residual-Based Compact (RBC) schemes of high accuracy is identified and analysed for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. A necessary and sufficient condition (-criterion) is found that ensures dissipation in 2-D and 3-Dfor any order of the RBC scheme. Numerical applications of RBC schemes of order 3, 5 and 7 to a diagonal wave advection and to a converging cylindrical shock problem confirm the theoretical results.A. Lerat; K. Grimich; P. CinnellaA., Lerat; K., Grimich; Cinnella, Paol

Sensitivity of Supersonic ORC Turbine Injector Designs to Fluctuating Operating Conditions

International audienceThe design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out

Metodi avanzati per la Fluidodinamica Numerica

Abstract