Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy

AbstractBackgroundThe Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden.MethodsWe develop an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. We explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve measles control in selected countries and two Indian states with high measles burden. Specifically, we compute the maximum allowable time period between two consecutive SIAs to achieve measles control.ResultsOur analysis indicates that a single SIA will not control measles transmission in any of the countries with high measles burden. However, regular SIAs at high coverage levels are a viable strategy to prevent measles outbreaks. The periodicity of SIAs differs between countries and even within a single country, and is determined by population demographics and existing routine immunization coverage.ConclusionsOur analysis can guide country policymakers deciding on the optimal scheduling of SIA campaigns and the best combination of routine and SIA vaccination to control measles

The consequences of tobacco tax on household health and fi nances in rich and poor smokers in China: an extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis

Background In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately aff ecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across diff erent wealth quintiles) of a specifi c excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both fi nancial and health outcomes. Methods We use extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefi ts (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net fi nancial consequences for households, and the fi nancial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of –0·38, which is assumed to vary from –0·64 in the poorest quintile to –0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. Findings Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194–268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616–781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232–505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (–$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by$24·0 billion ($17·3–26·3 billion, 28 income quintile). Finally, it would provide fi nancial risk protection worth$1·8 billion ($1·2–2·3 billion), mainly concentrated (74%) in the lowest income quintile. Interpretation Increased tobacco taxation can be a pro-poor policy instrument that brings substantial health and fi nancial benefi ts to households in China

Distributional benefits of tobacco tax and smoke–free workplaces in China: A modeling study

Background: Tobacco taxation and smoke–free workplaces reduce smoking, tobacco–related premature deaths and associated out–of–pocket health care expenditures. We examine the distributional consequences of a price increase in tobacco products through an excise tax hike, and of an implementation of smoke–free workplaces, in China. Methods: We use extended cost–effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the male population (the large majority of Chinese smokers), the premature deaths averted, the change in tax revenues generated, and the financial risk protection procured (eg, poverty cases averted, defined as the number of individuals no longer facing tobacco–related out–of–pocket expenditures for disease treatment, that would otherwise impoverish them), that would follow a 75% increase in cigarette prices through substantial increments in excise tax fully passed onto consumers, and a nationwide total implementation of workplace smoking bans. Results: A 75% increase in cigarette prices would avert about 24 million premature deaths among the current Chinese male population, with a third among the bottom income quintile, increase additional tax revenues by US$46 billion annually, and prevent around 9 million poverty cases, 19$ 7 billion annually, and prevent around 4 million poverty cases, 12% of which among the bottom income quintile. Conclusions: Increased excise taxes on tobacco products and workplace smoking bans can procure large health and economic benefits to the Chinese population, especially among the poor

The consequences of tobacco tax on household health and finances in rich and poor smokers in China: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately affecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across different wealth quintiles) of a specific excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both financial and health outcomes. Methods: We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefits (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net financial consequences for households, and the financial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of −0·38, which is assumed to vary from −0·64 in the poorest quintile to −0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. Findings: Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194–268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616–781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232–505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (−$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by$24·0 billion ($17·3–26·3 billion, 28$1·8 billion ($1·2–2·3 billion), mainly concentrated (74%) in the lowest income quintile. Interpretation: Increased tobacco taxation can be a pro-poor policy instrument that brings substantial health and financial benefits to households in China. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Dalla Lana School of Public Health

Costs, affordability, and feasibility of an essential package of cancer control interventions in low-income and middle-income countries: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

Investments in cancer control--prevention, detection, diagnosis, surgery, other treatment, and palliative care--are increasingly needed in low-income and particularly in middle-income countries, where most of the world's cancer deaths occur without treatment or palliation. To help countries expand locally appropriate services, Cancer (the third volume of nine in Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition) developed an essential package of potentially cost-effective measures for countries to consider and adapt. Interventions included in the package are: prevention of tobacco-related cancer and virus-related liver and cervical cancers; diagnosis and treatment of early breast cancer, cervical cancer, and selected childhood cancers; and widespread availability of palliative care, including opioids. These interventions would cost an additional US$20 billion per year worldwide, constituting 3% of total public spending on health in low-income and middle-income countries. With implementation of an appropriately tailored package, most countries could substantially reduce suffering and premature death from cancer before 2030, with even greater improvements in later decades