Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early warning systems

Abstract. Real-time assessment of debris-flow hazard is fundamental for developing warning systems that can mitigate risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is to compare measured and forecasted rainfalls to critical rainfall threshold (CRT) curves. Empirical derivation of the CRT from the analysis of past events' rainfall characteristics is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For debris flows and mud flows triggered by shallow landslides or debris avalanches, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology presented. In this work the CRT curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations, based on the infinite-slope stability model in which slope instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled through a reduced form of the Richards equation. The range of rainfall durations for which the method can be correctly employed is investigated and an equation is derived for the lower limit of the range. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive CRT curves. The methodology is implemented and tested in a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy). The comparison among the obtained CRT curves and the observed rainfall amounts, in a playback period, gives a good agreement. Simulations are performed with different degree of detail in the soil parameters characterization. The comparison shows that the lack of knowledge about the spatial variability of the parameters may greatly affect the results. This problem is partially mitigated by the use of a Monte Carlo approach

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early warning systems

Real-time assessment of debris-flow hazard is fundamental for developing warning systems that can mitigate risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is to compare measured and forecasted rainfalls to critical rainfall threshold (CRT) curves. Empirical derivation of the CRT from the analysis of past events' rainfall characteristics is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For debris flows and mud flows triggered by shallow landslides or debris avalanches, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology presented. In this work the CRT curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations, based on the infinite-slope stability model in which slope instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled through a reduced form of the Richards equation. The range of rainfall durations for which the method can be correctly employed is investigated and an equation is derived for the lower limit of the range. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive CRT curves. The methodology is implemented and tested in a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy). The comparison among the obtained CRT curves and the observed rainfall amounts, in a playback period, gives a good agreement. Simulations are performed with different degree of detail in the soil parameters characterization. The comparison shows that the lack of knowledge about the spatial variability of the parameters may greatly affect the results. This problem is partially mitigated by the use of a Monte Carlo approach

Modeling Watershed Response in Semiarid Regions With High-Resolution Synthetic Aperture Radars

In this paper, we propose a methodology devoted to exploit the outstanding characteristics of COSMO-SkyMed for monitoring water bodies in semiarid countries at a scale never experienced before. The proposed approach, based on appropriate registration, calibration, and processing of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, allows outperforming the previously available methods for monitoring small reservoirs, mainly carried out with optical data, and severely limited by the presence of cloud coverage, which is a frequent condition in wet season. A tool has been developed for computing the water volumes retained in small reservoirs based on SAR-derived digital elevation model. These data have been used to derive a relationship between storage volumes and surface areas that can be used when bathymetric information is unavailable. Due to the lack of direct measures of river's discharge, the time evolution of water volumes retained at reservoirs has been used to validate a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model that can provide useful recommendation for the management of small reservoirs. Operational scenarios concerning the improvement in the efficiency of reservoirs management and the estimation of their impact on downstream area point out the applicative outcomes of the proposed method

Antifibrotic treatment response and prognostic predictors in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and exposed to occupational dust

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is an aggressive interstitial lung disease with an unpredictable course. Occupational dust exposure may contribute to IPF onset, but its impact on antifibrotic treatment and disease prognosis is still unknown. We evaluated clinical characteristics, respiratory function and prognostic predictors at diagnosis and at 12 month treatment of pirfenidone or nintedanib in IPF patients according to occupational dust exposure. METHODS: A total of 115 IPF patients were recruited. At diagnosis, we collected demographic, clinical characteristics, occupational history. Pulmonary function tests were performed and two prognostic indices [Gender, Age, Physiology (GAP) and Composite Physiologic Index (CPI)] calculated, both at diagnosis and after the 12 month treatment. The date of long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) initiation was recorded during the entire follow-up (mean = 37.85, range 12-60 months). RESULTS: At baseline, patients exposed to occupational dust [≥ 10 years (n = 62)] showed a lower percentage of graduates (19.3% vs 54.7%; p = 0.04) and a higher percentage of asbestos exposure (46.8% vs 18.9%; p 0.002) than patients not exposed [< 10 years (n = 53)]. Both at diagnosis and after 12 months of antifibrotics, no significant differences for respiratory function and prognostic predictors were found. The multivariate analysis confirmed that occupational dust exposure did not affect neither FVC and DLCO after 12 month therapy nor the timing of LTOT initiation. CONCLUSION: Occupational dust exposure lasting 10 years or more does not seem to influence the therapeutic effects of antifibrotics and the prognostic predictors in patients with IPF

Assessment of DNA Damage and Telomerase Activity in Exfoliated Urinary Cells as Sensitive and Noninvasive Biomarkers for Early Diagnosis of Bladder Cancer in Ex-Workers of a Rubber Tyres Industry

The aim of the present study was to identify sensitive and noninvasive biomarkers of early carcinogenic effect at target organ to use in biomonitoring studies of workers at risk for previous occupational exposure to potential carcinogens. Standard urine cytology (Papanicolaou staining test), comet assay, and quantitative telomerase repeat amplification protocol (TRAP) assay were performed in 159 ex-rubber workers employed in tyres production and 97 unexposed subjects. In TRAP positive cases, a second level analysis using FISH (Urovysion) was done. Cystoscopy results were available for 11 individuals whose 6 FISH/TRAP/comet positive showed in 3 cases a dysplastic condition confirmed by biopsy, 1 comet positive resulted in infiltrating UBC to the biopsy and with hyperplasia and slight dysplasia to the urinary cytology, 1 comet positive resulted in papillary superficial UBC to the biopsy, 1 FISH/TRAP positive showed a normal condition, and 2 TRAP positive showed in one case a phlogosis condition. The results evidenced good concordance of TRAP, comet, and FISH assays as early biomarkers of procarcinogenic effect confirmed by the dysplastic condition and UBC found by cystoscopy-biopsy analysis. The analysis of these markers in urine cells could be potentially more accurate than conventional cytology in monitoring workers exposed to mixture of bladder potential carcinogens

Lice, rodents, and many hopes: a rare disease in a young refugee

Borrelia recurrentis infection is a louse-borne disease and Leptospirosis is a rat-borne zoonosis, both endemic in areas characterized by a low hygiene condition. This is the first case of life-threatening Borrelia recurrentis and Leptospira species co-infectio