Cost-effectiveness of Routine Provider-Initiated Testing and Counseling for Children With Undiagnosed HIV in South Africa

Background: We compared the cost-effectiveness of pediatric provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling (PITC) vs no PITC in a range of clinical care settings in South Africa. Methods: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Pediatric model to simulate a cohort of children, aged 2-10 years, presenting for care in 4 settings (outpatient, malnutrition, inpatient, tuberculosis clinic) with varying prevalence of undiagnosed HIV (1.0%, 15.0%, 17.5%, 50.0%, respectively). We compared "PITC" (routine testing offered to all patients; 97% acceptance and 71% linkage to care after HIV diagnosis) with no PITC. Model outcomes included life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the health care system perspective and the proportion of children with HIV (CWH) diagnosed, on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and virally suppressed. We assumed a threshold of $3200/year of life saved (YLS) to determine cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses varied the age distribution of children seeking care and costs for PITC, HIV care, and ART. Results: PITC improved the proportion of CWH diagnosed (45.2$710 to $1240/YLS. PITC remained cost-effective unless undiagnosed HIV prevalence was <0.2%. Conclusions: Routine testing improves HIV clinical outcomes and is cost-effective in South Africa if the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV among children exceeds 0.2%. These findings support current recommendations for PITC in outpatient, inpatient, tuberculosis, and malnutrition clinical settings

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

What Will It Take to Eliminate Pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO Target Rates of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: A Model-Based Analysis

Using a simulation model, Andrea Ciaranello and colleagues find that the latest WHO PMTCT (prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV) guidelines plus better access to PMTCT programs, better retention of women in care, and better adherence to drugs are needed to eliminate pediatric HIV in Zimbabwe

Nevirapine- Versus Lopinavir/Ritonavir-Based Initial Therapy for HIV-1 Infection among Women in Africa: A Randomized Trial

In a randomized control trial, Shahin Lockman and colleagues compare nevirapine-based therapy with lopinavir/ritonavir-based therapy for HIV-infected women without previous exposure to antiretroviral treatment

WHO 2010 Guidelines for Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: Modeling Clinical Outcomes in Infants and Mothers

The Zimbabwean national prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program provided primarily single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) from 2002-2009 and is currently replacing sdNVP with more effective antiretroviral (ARV) regimens.Published HIV and PMTCT models, with local trial and programmatic data, were used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women in Zimbabwe (mean age 24.0 years, mean CD4 451 cells/µL). We compared five PMTCT regimens at a fixed level of PMTCT medication uptake: 1) no antenatal ARVs (comparator); 2) sdNVP; 3) WHO 2010 guidelines using "Option A" (zidovudine during pregnancy/infant NVP during breastfeeding for women without advanced HIV disease; lifelong 3-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women with advanced disease); 4) WHO "Option B" (ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding without advanced disease; lifelong ART with advanced disease); and 5) "Option B+:" lifelong ART for all pregnant/breastfeeding, HIV-infected women. Pediatric (4-6 week and 18-month infection risk, 2-year survival) and maternal (2- and 5-year survival, life expectancy from delivery) outcomes were projected.Eighteen-month pediatric infection risks ranged from 25.8% (no antenatal ARVs) to 10.9% (Options B/B+). Although maternal short-term outcomes (2- and 5-year survival) varied only slightly by regimen, maternal life expectancy was reduced after receipt of sdNVP (13.8 years) or Option B (13.9 years) compared to no antenatal ARVs (14.0 years), Option A (14.0 years), or Option B+ (14.5 years).Replacement of sdNVP with currently recommended regimens for PMTCT (WHO Options A, B, or B+) is necessary to reduce infant HIV infection risk in Zimbabwe. The planned transition to Option A may also improve both pediatric and maternal outcomes

Late-stage diagnosis of HIV infection in Brazilian children: evidence from two national cohort studies

This study analyzed data from two consecutive retrospective cohort samples (1983 to 1998 and 1999 to 2002) of Brazilian children with AIDS (N = 1,758) through mother-to-child-transmission. Late-stage diagnosis (CDC category C) was investigated in relation to the following variables: year of birth, year of HIV diagnosis, and time periods related to changes in government treatment guidelines. Late-stage diagnosis occurred in 731 (41.6%) of cases and was more prevalent in infants under 12 months of age. The rate of late-stage diagnosis decreased from 48% to 36% between the two periods studied. We also observed a reduction in the proportion of late-stage diagnoses and the time lapse between HIV diagnosis and ART initiation. A significant association was found between timely diagnosis and having been born in recent years (OR = 0.62; p = 0.009) and year of HIV diagnosis (OR = 0.72; p = 0.002/OR = 0.62; p < 0.001). Infants under the age of 12 months were more likely to be diagnosed at a late stage than older children (OR = 1.70; p = 0.004). Despite advances, there is a need to improve the effectiveness of policies and programs focused on improving early diagnosis and management of HIV/AIDS

Opportunistic illnesses in Brazilian children with AIDS: results from two national cohort studies, 1983-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HAART has significantly reduced AIDS-related morbidity in children. However, limited evidence is available from developing countries regarding patterns of opportunistic illnesses. We describe these events and their associated factors in children with AIDS in Brazil.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study is based on two representative retrospective multi-center cohorts including a total 1,859 children with AIDS, infected via mother-to-child transmission (MTCT), between 1983-2002. Opportunistic illnesses were described and analyzed over time. The association of demographic, clinical and operational data with the occurrence of opportunistic diseases was assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 1,218 (65.5%) had at least one event of an opportunistic disease. Variables significantly associated with occurrence of these events included: region of residence (OR 2.68-11.33, as compared to the Northern region), age < 1 year at diagnosis (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.81-3.61, p < 0.001), and non-performance of MTCT prevention measures (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.21-2.07, p < 0.001). Protective factors included year of HIV diagnosis in the HAART era (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15-0.76, p = 0.009) and ART use (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.44-0.77, p < 0.001). In both periods bacterial infections represented the most common opportunistic events (58.6 vs. 34.7%; p < 0.001), followed by <it>Pneumocystis jirovecii </it>pneumonia (21.9 vs. 13.2%; p < 0.001), and bacterial meningitis/sepsis (16.8 vs. 7.4%; p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite the significant reduction in recent years, opportunistic illnesses are still common in Brazilian children with AIDS in the HAART era, especially bacterial diseases. The data reinforce the need for scaling up prevention of MTCT, early diagnosis of infection, and improvement of comprehensive pediatric care.</p

Mobile HIV Screening in Cape Town, South Africa: Clinical Impact, Cost and Cost-Effectiveness

Background: Mobile HIV screening may facilitate early HIV diagnosis. Our objective was to examine the cost-effectiveness of adding a mobile screening unit to current medical facility-based HIV testing in Cape Town, South Africa. Methods and Findings: We used the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications International (CEPAC-I) computer simulation model to evaluate two HIV screening strategies in Cape Town: 1) medical facility-based testing (the current standard of care) and 2) addition of a mobile HIV-testing unit intervention in the same community. Baseline input parameters were derived from a Cape Town-based mobile unit that tested 18,870 individuals over 2 years: prevalence of previously undiagnosed HIV (6.6%), mean CD4 count at diagnosis (males 423/µL, females 516/µL), CD4 count-dependent linkage to care rates (males 31%–58%, females 49%–58%), mobile unit intervention cost (includes acquisition, operation and HIV test costs, $29.30 per negative result and$31.30 per positive result). We conducted extensive sensitivity analyses to evaluate input uncertainty. Model outcomes included site of HIV diagnosis, life expectancy, medical costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention compared to medical facility-based testing. We considered the intervention to be “very cost-effective” when the ICER was less than South Africa's annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ($8,200 in 2012). We projected that, with medical facility-based testing, the discounted (undiscounted) HIV-infected population life expectancy was 132.2 (197.7) months; this increased to 140.7 (211.7) months with the addition of the mobile unit. The ICER for the mobile unit was$2,400/year of life saved (YLS). Results were most sensitive to the previously undiagnosed HIV prevalence, linkage to care rates, and frequency of HIV testing at medical facilities. Conclusion: The addition of mobile HIV screening to current testing programs can improve survival and be very cost-effective in South Africa and other resource-limited settings, and should be a priority