The role of health technology assessment bodies in shaping drug development.

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The use of health technology assessment (HTA) to inform policy-making is established in most developed countries. Compared to licensing agencies, HTA agencies have different interests and, therefore, different evidence requirements. Criteria for coverage or reimbursement decisions on pharmaceutical compounds vary; however, it is common to include, as part of the HTA, a comparative effectiveness evaluation. This type of clinical data might go beyond that required for market authorization, thus creating an additional evidence gap between the regulatory and the reimbursement submission. The relevance of submissions to HTA agencies is consistently increasing in a pharmaceutical company's perspective, as market prospects are strongly influenced by third-party payers' coverage. In this study, we aim to describe current HTA activities with a potential impact throughout the drug development process of pharmaceuticals, with a comparative emphasis on the systems in place in Italy and in the UK. Based on an extensive literature and website review, we identified three major classes of HTA activities, beyond mainstream HTA, with the potential to influence the drug development program: 1) horizon scanning and early HTA; 2) bipartite and tripartite early dialogue between manufacturers, regulators, and HTA assessors; and 3) managed market entry agreements. From early stages of clinical research up to postauthorization studies, there is a trend toward increased collaboration between parties, anticipation of market access evidence collection, and postmarketing risk-sharing. Heterogeneity of HTA practices increases the complexity of the market access environment. Overall, there are signals that market access departments are gaining importance in the pharmaceutical companies, but there is still a lack of evidence and reporting on how the increasing relevance of HTA has reshaped the way clinical development is designed and managed

Use of surrogate endpoints in healthcare policy : proposal for consistent adoption of a validation framework

We propose a three step framework for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints for health policy decisions on health technologies

Time to review the role of surrogate endpoints in health policy: state of the art and the way forward

The efficacy of medicines, medical devices, and other health technologies should be proved in trials that assess final patient-relevant outcomes such as survival or morbidity. However, market access and coverage decisions are often based on surrogate endpoints, biomarkers, or intermediate endpoints, which aim to substitute and predict patient-relevant outcomes that are unavailable due to methodological, financial, or practical constraints. We provide a summary of the current use of surrogate endpoints in healthcare policy, discussing the case for and against their adoption and reviewing validation methods. We introduce a three-step framework for policy makers to handle surrogates, which involves establishing the level of evidence, assessing the strength of the association, and quantifying relations between surrogates and final outcomes. Although use of surrogates can be problematic, they can, when selected and validated appropriately, offer important opportunities for more efficient clinical trials and faster access to new health technologies that benefit patients and healthcare systems

Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials show suboptimal validity of surrogate outcomes for overall survival in advanced colorectal cancer

Comparative StudyMeta-AnalysisReviewValidation StudiesThis is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVES: To quantify and compare the treatment effects on three surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and tumor response rate (TR) vs. overall survival (OS) based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of drug interventions in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for RCTs of pharmacologic therapies in aCRC between 2003 and 2013. Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded based on a predefined form. Univariate and multivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate pooled summary treatment effects. The ratio of hazard ratios (HRs)/odds ratios (ORs) and difference in medians were used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects on the surrogate end points and OS. Spearman ρ, surrogate threshold effect (STE), and R(2) were also estimated across predefined trial-level covariates. RESULTS: We included 101 RCTs. In univariate and multivariate meta-analyses, we found larger treatment effects for the surrogates than for OS. Compared with OS, treatment effects were on average 13% higher when HRs were measured and 3% to 45% higher when ORs were considered; differences in median PFS/TTP were higher than on OS by an average of 0.5 month. Spearman ρ ranged from 0.39 to 0.80, mean R(2) from 0.06 to 0.65, and STE was 0.8 for HRPFS, 0.64 for HRTTP, or 0.28 for ORTR. The stratified analyses revealed high variability across all strata. CONCLUSION: None of the end points in this study were found to achieve the level of evidence (ie, mean R(2)trial > 0.60) that has been set to select high or excellent correlation levels by common surrogate evaluation tools. Previous surrogacy relationships observed between PFS and TTP vs. OS in selected settings may not apply across other classes or lines of therapy

Trans-arterial radioembolization in intermediate-advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review and meta-analyses.

Published onlineJournal ArticleThis is the final version of the article. Available from Impact Journals via the DOI in this record.Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) is a recognized, although not explicitly recommended, experimental therapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).A systematic literature review was performed to identify published studies on the use of TARE in intermediate and advanced stages HCC exploring the efficacy and safety of this innovative treatment.Twenty-one studies reporting data on overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP), were included in a meta-analysis. The pooled post-TARE OS was 63% (95% CI: 56-70%) and 27% (95% CI: 21-33%) at 1- and 3-years respectively in intermediate stage HCC, whereas OS was 37% (95% CI: 26-50%) and 13% (95% CI: 9-18%) at the same time intervals in patients with sufficient liver function (Child-Pugh A-B7) but with an advanced HCC because of the presence of portal vein thrombosis. When an intermediate and advanced case-mix was considered, OS was 58% (95% CI: 48-67%) and 17% (95% CI: 12-23%) at 1- and 3-years respectively. As for TTP, only four studies reported data: the observed progression probability was 56% (95% CI: 41-70%) and 73% (95% CI: 56-87%) at 1 and 2 years respectively. The safety analysis, focused on the risk of liver decompensation after TARE, revealed a great variability, from 0-1% to more than 36% events, influenced by the number of procedures, patient Child-Pugh stage and treatment duration.Evidence supporting the use of radioembolization in HCC is mainly based on retrospective and prospective cohort studies. Based on this evidence, until the results of the ongoing randomized trials become available, radioembolization appears to be a viable treatment option for intermediate-advanced stage HCC.The present study was funded by ASBM Srl through an unrestricted grant to CERGAS, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, 20136 Milan, Italy

Exercise training for chronic heart failure (ExTraMATCH II): individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NIHR Journals Library via the DOI in this record.Background: Current national and international guidelines on the management of heart failure (HF) recommend exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ExCR), but do not differentiate this recommendation according to patient subgroups. Objective(s): (1) to obtain definitive estimates of the impact of ExCR interventions versus control (no exercise intervention) on mortality, hospitalisation, exercise capacity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in HF patients; (2) to determine the differential (subgroup) effects of ExCR in HF patients according to their age, gender, ejection fraction, aetiology, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and baseline exercise capacity; (3) to assess whether the change in exercise capacity mediates for the impact of the ExCR on final outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, and HRQoL) and is an acceptable surrogate endpoint. Design: Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis Setting: An international literature review Participants: HF patients in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of ExCR Interventions: ExCR for at least 3 weeks compared with no exercise control with 6 months follow-up Main outcome measures: mortality (all cause and HF-specific), hospitalisation (all-cause & HF-specific), exercise capacity, and HRQoL Data sources: Individual participant data from eligible RCTs 3 Review methods: RCTs from ExTraMATCH IPD meta-analysis and 2014 Cochrane systematic review of ExCR Results: Out of the 23 eligible RCTs (4,398 patients), 19 RCTs (3,990 patients) contributed data to this IPD meta-analysis. There was a wide variation in exercise programme prescriptions across included studies. Compared with control, there was no statistically significant difference in pooled time to event estimates in favour of ExCR although confidence intervals were wide: all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) 0.83 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67 to 1.04), HF-related mortality: HR 0.84 (95% CI: 0.49 to 1.46), all-cause hospitalisation: HR 0.90 (95% CI: 0.76 to 1.06), and HF-related hospitalisation: HR 0.98 (95% CI: 0.72 to 1.35). There was a statistically significant difference in favour of ExCR for exercise capacity and HRQoL. Compared to control, at 12-months follow-up, improvements were seen in the six-minute walk test (6MWT) (mean: 21.0 metres, 95% CI: 1.57 to 40.4, and Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire score (mean: -5.94, 95% CI: -1.0 to -10.9, lower scores indicate improved HRQoL). No strong evidence for differential intervention effects across patient characteristics was found for any outcomes. Moderate to good levels of correlation (R2 trial>50% & ρ>0.50) between peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) or 6MWT with mortality and HRQoL were seen. Estimated surrogate threshold effect (STE) was an increase of 1.6 to 4.6 ml/kg/min for VO2peak. Limitations: Lack consistency in how included RCTs defined and collected the outcomes; we were unable to obtain IPD from all includable trials for all outcomes; and we did not seek patient level on exercise adherence. . Conclusions: In comparison to no exercise control, participation in ExCR improves the exercise and HRQoL in HF patients but appears to have no effect on their mortality or hospitalisation. No strong evidence was found of differential intervention effects of ExCR across patient characteristics. VO2peak and 6MWT may be suitable surrogate endpoints for the treatment effect of ExCR on mortality and HRQoL in HF.NIHR Health Technology Assessment programm

Health technology assessment of medical devices: a survey of non-European union agencies.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tThis is the final version of the article. Available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to review and compare current health technology assessment (HTA) activities for medical devices across non-European Union HTA agencies. METHODS: HTA activities for medical devices were evaluated from three perspectives: organizational structure, processes, and methods. Agencies were primarily selected upon membership of existing HTA networks. The data collection was performed in two stages: stage 1-agency Web-site assessment using a standardized questionnaire, followed by review and validation of the collected data by a representative of the agency; and stage 2-semi-structured telephone interviews with key informants of a sub-sample of agencies. RESULTS: In total, thirty-six HTA agencies across twenty non-EU countries assessing medical devices were included. Twenty-seven of thirty-six (75 percent) agencies were judged at stage 1 to have adopted HTA-specific approaches for medical devices (MD-specific agencies) that were largely organizational or procedural. There appeared to be few differences in the organization, process and methods between MD-specific and non-MD-specific agencies. Although the majority (69 percent) of both categories of agency had specific methods guidance or policy for evidence submission, only one MD-specific agency had developed methodological guidelines specific to medical devices. In stage 2, many MD-specific agencies cited insufficient resources (budget, skilled employees), lack of coordination (between regulator and reimbursement bodies), and the inability to generalize findings from evidence synthesis to be key challenges in the HTA of medical devices. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of evidence for differentiation in scientific methods for HTA of devices raises the question of whether HTA needs to develop new methods for medical devices but rather adapt existing methodological approaches. In contrast, organizational and/or procedural adaptation of existing HTA agency frameworks to accommodate medical devices appear relatively commonplace.This study was supported by a research grant from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7 - HEALTH Grant Agreement no. 305694). The sponsor had no role in the study design, collection and analysis of data, writing of the report, or submission of the paper for publication. The authors wish to thank all interviewees and agencies’ assessment forms verifiers for their invaluable contribution to the completion of this study

Validation of Exercise Capacity as a Surrogate Endpoint in Exercise-Based Rehabilitation for Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordObjectives: This study sought to validate exercise capacity (EC) as a surrogate for mortality, hospitalization, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Background: EC is often used as a primary outcome in exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) trials of heart failure (HF) via direct cardiorespiratory assessment of maximum oxygen uptake (VO2peak) or through submaximal tests, such as the 6-min walk test (6MWT). Methods: After a systematic review, 31 randomized trials of exercise-based CR compared with no exercise control (4,784 HF patients) were included. Outcomes were pooled using random effects meta-analyses, and inverse variance weighted linear regression equations were fitted to estimate the relationship between the CR on EC and all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and HRQOL. Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ), R2 at trial level, and surrogate threshold effect (STE) were calculated. STE represents the intercept of the prediction band of the regression line with null effect on the final outcome. Results: Exercise-based CR is associated with positive effects on EC measured through VO2peak (+3.10 ml/kg/min; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01 to 4.20) or 6MWT (+41.15 m; 95% CI: 16.68 to 65.63) compared to control. The analyses showed a low level of association between improvements in EC (VO2peak or 6MWT) and mortality and hospitalization. Moderate levels of correlation between EC with HRQOL were seen (e.g., R2 <52%; |ρ| < 0.72). Estimated STE was an increase of 5 ml/kg/min for VO2peak and 80 m for 6MWT to predict a significant improvement in HRQOL. Conclusions: The study results indicate that EC is a poor surrogate endpoint for mortality and hospitalization but has moderate validity as a surrogate for HRQOL. Further research is needed to confirm these findings across other HF interventions.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)University of Exete

ABEMUS: platform specific and data informed detection of somatic SNVs in cfDNA

MOTIVATION: The use of liquid biopsies for cancer patients enables the non-invasive tracking of treatment response and tumor dynamics through single or serial blood drawn tests. Next generation sequencing assays allow for the simultaneous interrogation of extended sets of somatic single nucleotide variants (SNVs) in circulating cell free DNA (cfDNA), a mixture of DNA molecules originating both from normal and tumor tissue cells. However, low circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fractions together with sequencing background noise and potential tumor heterogeneity challenge the ability to confidently call SNVs. RESULTS: We present a computational methodology, called Adaptive Base Error Model in Ultra-deep Sequencing data (ABEMUS), which combines platform-specific genetic knowledge and empirical signal to readily detect and quantify somatic SNVs in cfDNA. We tested the capability of our method to analyze data generated using different platforms with distinct sequencing error properties and we compared ABEMUS performances with other popular SNV callers on both synthetic and real cancer patients sequencing data. Results show that ABEMUS performs better in most of the tested conditions proving its reliability in calling low variant allele frequencies somatic SNVs in low ctDNA levels plasma samples. AVAILABILITY: ABEMUS is cross-platform and can be installed as R package. The source code is maintained on Github at http://github.com/cibiobcg/abemus and it is also available at CRAN official R repository. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online