A Tree-based Federated Learning Approach for Personalized Treatment Effect Estimation from Heterogeneous Data Sources

Federated learning is an appealing framework for analyzing sensitive data from distributed health data networks due to its protection of data privacy. Under this framework, data partners at local sites collaboratively build an analytical model under the orchestration of a coordinating site, while keeping the data decentralized. However, existing federated learning methods mainly assume data across sites are homogeneous samples of the global population, hence failing to properly account for the extra variability across sites in estimation and inference. Drawing on a multi-hospital electronic health records network, we develop an efficient and interpretable tree-based ensemble of personalized treatment effect estimators to join results across hospital sites, while actively modeling for the heterogeneity in data sources through site partitioning. The efficiency of our method is demonstrated by a study of causal effects of oxygen saturation on hospital mortality and backed up by comprehensive numerical results

The association between pulse pressure change and cognition in late life: Age and where you start matters

AbstractIntroductionVariations across studies in the association between blood pressure (BP) and cognition might be explained partly by duration of exposure to hypertension and partly by nonrandom attrition over time. Pulse pressure (PP) reflects arterial stiffness which may better reflect chronicity of hypertension.MethodsOver six annual cycles, 1954 individuals aged 65+ years from a prospective population-based cohort underwent BP measurements and cognitive evaluations. We examined the relationship of change in five cognitive domains to longitudinal PP patterns across the late-life age spectrum, before and after stratifying by baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and adjusting for attrition.ResultsThere were four longitudinal PP patterns: stable normal, stable high, increasing, and decreasing. Those with lower baseline SBP and an increasing or stable high PP had less decline in cognition, an effect that was attenuated with aging. Among those with higher baseline SBP, there were no differences across PP groups, but increasing age was consistently associated with greater cognitive decline.DiscussionThe effect of PP on cognitive decline depends on age, baseline SBP, and the trajectory of PP change. Cardiovascular mechanisms underlying cognitive aging should be recognized as nuanced and dynamic processes when exploring prevention and treatment targets in the elderly, so that the optimal timing and type of intervention can be identified

HIV infection and cardiovascular disease in women

Background HIV infection is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in men. Whether HIV is an independent risk factor for CVD in women has not yet been established. Methods and Results We analyzed data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study on 2187 women (32% HIV infected [HIV+]) who were free of CVD at baseline. Participants were followed from their first clinical encounter on or after April 01, 2003 until a CVD event, death, or the last follow‐up date (December 31, 2009). The primary outcome was CVD (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], unstable angina, ischemic stroke, and heart failure). CVD events were defined using clinical data, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes, and/or death certificate data. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between HIV and incident CVD, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, lipids, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, renal disease, obesity, hepatitis C, and substance use/abuse. Median follow‐up time was 6.0 years. Mean age at baseline of HIV+ and HIV uninfected (HIV−) women was 44.0 versus 43.2 years (PP=0.11). There were 86 incident CVD events (53%, HIV+): AMI, 13%; unstable angina, 8%; ischemic stroke, 22%; and heart failure, 57%. Incident CVD/1000 person‐years was significantly higher among HIV+ (13.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]=10.1, 18.1) than HIV−women (5.3; 95% CI=3.9, 7.3; P+ women had an increased risk of CVD, compared to HIV− (hazard ratio=2.8; 95% CI=1.7, 4.6; P\u3c0.001). Conclusions HIV is associated with an increased risk of CVD in women

The impact of cardiac comorbidity sequence at baseline and mortality risk in type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: a retrospective population-based cohort study

Introduction: The presence of multiple comorbidities increases the risk of all-cause mortality, but the effects of the comorbidity sequence before the baseline date on mortality remain unexplored. This study investigated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) through their sequence of development and the effect on all-cause mortality risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This study included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications in public hospitals of Hong Kong between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009, with follow-up until death or 31 December 2019. The Cox regression was used to identify comorbidity sequences predicting all-cause mortality in patients with different medication subgroups. Results: A total of 249,291 patients (age: 66.0 ± 12.4 years, 47.4% male) were included. At baseline, 7564, 10,900 and 25,589 patients had AF, HF and CHD, respectively. Over follow-up (3524 ± 1218 days), 85,870 patients died (mortality rate: 35.7 per 1000 person-years). Sulphonylurea users with CHD developing later and insulin users with CHD developing earlier in the disease course had lower mortality risks. Amongst insulin users with two of the three comorbidities, those with CHD with preceding AF (hazard ratio (HR): 3.06, 95% CI: [2.60–3.61], p < 0.001) or HF (HR: 3.84 [3.47–4.24], p < 0.001) had a higher mortality. In users of lipid-lowering agents with all three comorbidities, those with preceding AF had a higher risk of mortality (AF-CHD-HF: HR: 3.22, [2.24–4.61], p < 0.001; AF-HF-CHD: HR: 3.71, [2.66–5.16], p < 0.001). Conclusions: The sequence of comorbidity development affects the risk of all-cause mortality to varying degrees in diabetic patients on different antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications

Insomnia as an Independent Predictor of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in HIV: Data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study

Background: Insomnia is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the general population and is highly prevalent in people with HIV. The CVD risk conferred by insomnia in the HIV population is unknown. Methods: Using the Veterans Aging Cohort Study-Survey Cohort, insomnia symptoms were measured and dummy coded with the item, “Difficulty falling or staying asleep?” (5-point scale from no difficulty to bothers a lot). Incident CVD event ICD-9 codes (acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary artery revascularization) were identified with VA and Medicare administrative data and VA fee-for-service data. Those with baseline CVD were excluded. Results: HIV-infected (N=3,108) veterans had a median follow-up time of 10.8 years, during which 267 CVD events occurred. Compared to HIV-infected veterans with no difficulty falling or staying asleep, HIV-infected veterans bothered a lot by insomnia symptoms had an increased risk of incident CVD after adjusting for demographics (HR=1.64, 95%CI=1.16-2.31, p=.005), CVD risk factors (HR=1.62, 95%CI=1.14-2.30, p=.007), additional potential confounders (hepatitis C infection, renal disease, anemia, alcohol use, cocaine use; HR=1.70, 95%CI=1.19-2.43, p=.003), and HIV-specific factors (HIV-1 RNA, CD4+ T-cell count, ART; HR=1.66, 95%CI=1.16-2.37, p=.005). Additional adjustment for non-benzodiazepine sleep medication (HR=1.62, 95%CI=1.13-2.32, p=.009) did not attenuate the association; however, it fell short of significance at p < .01 after adjustment for depressive symptoms (HR=1.51, 95%CI=0.98-2.32, p=.060) or antidepressant medication (HR=1.51, 95%CI=1.04-2.19, p=.031). Conclusion: Highly bothersome insomnia symptoms were significantly associated with incident CVD in HIV-infected veterans, suggesting that insomnia may be a novel, modifiable risk factor for CVD in HIV

Survival after Acute Hemodialysis in Pennsylvania, 2005- 2007: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract Background: Little is known about acute hemodialysis in the US. Here we describe predictors of receipt of acute hemodialysis in one state and estimate the marginal impact of acute hemodialysis on survival after accounting for confounding due to illness severity

The effect of typhoon on particulate organic carbon flux in the southern East China Sea

Severe tropical storms play an important role in triggering phytoplankton blooms, but the extent to which such storms influence biogenic carbon flux from the euphotic zone is unclear. In 2008, typhoon Fengwong provided a unique opportunity to study the in situ biological responses including phytoplankton blooms and particulate organic carbon fluxes associated with a severe storm in the southern East China Sea (SECS). After passage of the typhoon, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the SECS was markedly cooler (&amp;sim;25 to 26 °C) than before typhoon passage (&amp;sim;28 to 29 °C). The POC flux 5 days after passage of the typhoon was 265 &amp;plusmn; 14 mg C m&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt; d&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, which was &amp;sim;1.7-fold that (140–180 mg C m&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt; d&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;) recorded during a period (June–August, 2007) when no typhoons occurred. A somewhat smaller but nevertheless significant increase in POC flux (224–225 mg C m&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt; d&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;) was detected following typhoon Sinlaku which occurred approximately 1 month after typhoon Fengwong, indicating that typhoon events can increase biogenic carbon flux efficiency in the SECS. Remarkably, phytoplankton uptake accounted for only about 5% of the nitrate injected into the euphotic zone by typhoon Fengwong. It is likely that phytoplankton population growth was constrained by a combination of light limitation and grazing pressure. Modeled estimates of new/export production were remarkably consistent with the average of new and export production following typhoon Fengwong. The same model suggested that during non-typhoon conditions approximately half of the export of organic carbon occurs via convective mixing of dissolved organic carbon, a conclusion consistent with earlier work at comparable latitudes in the open ocean

Optimism may moderate screening mammogram frequency in Medicare: A longitudinal study

Higher trait optimism and/or lower cynical hostility are associated with healthier behaviors and lower risk of morbidity and mortality, yet their association with health care utilization has been understudied. Whether these psychological attitudes are associated with breast cancer screening behavior is unknown. To assess the association of optimism and cynical hostility with screening mammography in older women and whether sociodemographic factors acted as mediators of these relationships, we used Women\u27s Health Initiative (WHI) observational cohort survey data linked to Medicare claims. The sample includes WHI participants without history of breast cancer who were enrolled in Medicare Parts A and B for \u3e /=2 years from 2005-2010, and who completed WHI baseline attitudinal questionnaires (n = 48,291). We used survival modeling to examine whether screening frequency varied by psychological attitudes (measured at study baseline) after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, health conditions, and healthcare-related variables. Psychological attitudes included trait optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised) and cynical hostility (Cook Medley subscale), which were self-reported at study baseline. Sociodemographic, health conditions, and healthcare variables were self-reported at baseline and updated through 2005 as available. Contrary to our hypotheses, repeated events survival models showed that women with the lowest optimism scores (i.e., more pessimistic tendencies) received 5% more frequent screenings after complete covariate adjustment (p \u3c .01) compared to the most optimistic group, and showed no association between cynical hostility and frequency of screening mammograms. Sociodemographic factors did not appear to mediate the relationship between optimism and screenings. However, higher levels of education and higher levels of income were associated with more frequent screenings (both p \u3c .01). We also found that results for optimism were primarily driven by women who were aged 75 or older after January 2009, when changes to clinical guidelines lead to uncertainty about risks and benefits of screening in this age group. The study demonstrated that lower optimism, higher education, and higher income were all associated with more frequent screening mammograms in this sample after repeated events survival modeling and covariate adjustment