Projecting extreme heat-related mortality in Europe under climate change

The assessment of health impacts of extreme hot weather under climate change is important for adaptation and mitigation actions. This thesis has developed techniques for estimating changes in heat-related mortality in Europe, with a focus on extreme daily mortality counts. The use of these techniques is illustrated through the projections of extreme elderly mortalities for London, UK and Budapest, Hungary from 2010 to 2099, using temperature projections from the perturbed physics ensemble of the regional climate model HadRM3. The present-day relationship between daily number of deaths and temperatures at each location is modelled by Poisson generalized additive models. In order to account for possible discrepancies in climate model simulations, temperature projections from HadRM3 are calibrated by two approaches, bias correction and change factor. These are based on assumptions on the relationships in location, scale and shape between observed and modelled temperature distributions. In particular, a novel method using the Box-Cox transformation is developed to correct the bias in the upper tails of present-day simulated temperature distributions. Finally, future mortalities are projected by driving the mortality models with calibrated temperature projections. Results of temperature calibration show that the two calibration approaches give substantially different estimates of future extreme temperatures. The estimates of 10-summer temperature return level by the two approaches differ by more than 4 degrees C over many parts of Europe in the period 2070 to 2099. For London and Budapest, the effect of this calibration uncertainty on extreme temperature projections is comparable to the effect of the uncertainty in climate model parameters which is estimated by the range of perturbed physics ensemble estimates. These two sources of uncertainties, together with the uncertainty in how the mortality-temperature relationship is modelled, contribute to large uncertainties in extreme mortality projections. Assuming constant elderly population in the future, the projected change in the 2-summer return level of number of daily elderly deaths in the period 2070 to 2099 relative to the the present-day ranges from -12% to +75% for London and from -16% to +22% for Budapest.College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of ExeterMet Offic

KINEMATICS AND PHYSIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF A SYNCHRONIZED BIPEDAL “RISE-SIT-GO” CYCLING EXERCISE

This study demonstrated the kinematics and physiological effect of a synchronized bipedal cycling exercise. Fifteen male subjects performed a 30-minutes exercise on a synchronized bipedal stationary bike and a conventional stationary bike at same cycling speed. The performance was evaluated by a metabolic testing system, a subjective rating of perceived exertion, an electromyography system and a motion analysis system, and was compared by paired t-tests. Results showed significant increases in oxygen uptake, energy expenditure, rating of perceived exertion, muscle activity in triceps, biceps, rectus abdominis, left gluteus maximus, left medial gastrocnemius, right tibialis anterior and left tibialis anterior, and range of motion of left hip, left and right knees, shoulders, elbows and wrists. The synchronized bipedal cycling exercise was more physically demanding

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target

Post-activation performance enhancement of flywheel training on lower limb explosive power performance

The study aimed to investigate the post-activation performance enhancement (PAPE) of flywheel training (FT) on lower limb explosive power performance. Using a randomized crossover design, 20 trained men (age = 21.5 ± 1.4 years; training experience 5.5 ± 1.2 years) completed seven main conditions after three familiarization sessions. The first three conditions tested the PAPE of the FT on the counter movement jump (CMJ) under three different inertial loads (0.041 kg·m2 as L; 0.057 kg·m2 as ML; and 0.122 kg·m2 as P), whereas the following four conditions tested the PAPE of FT on the 30 m sprint, which consisted of three inertial loads (L, ML, and P) and a control condition. Participants were required to perform the CMJ or 30 m sprint at baseline (Tb) and immediately (T0), 4 min (T4), 8 min (T8), 12 min (T12), and 16 min (T16) after exercise, respectively. The results of the CMJ conditions showed that PAPE peaked at T4 (p < 0.01) and almost subsided at T12 (p > 0.05) in ML and P conditions. Meanwhile, PAPE appeared earlier in the P condition, and the effect was more significant (P:ES = 1.09; ML:ES = 0.79). 30 m sprint results showed significant improvement only in the ML condition. The PAPE peaked at T4 (p < 0.05, ES = −0.47) and almost subsided at T8 (p > 0.05). It was mainly due to the significant enhancement of the 10–30 m segmental timing performance at T4 (p < 0.05, ES = −0.49). This study indicates that the size of the inertial load could influence the magnitude of the PAPE produced by the explosive force of the lower limb. The PAPE of the vertical explosive force increased with increasing inertial load, but the PAPE of the horizontal explosive force did not appear at the maximum inertial load. The most effective elicitation of the PAPE was at 4–8 min after the FT

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems

Effects of loading positions on the activation of trunk and hip muscles during flywheel and dumbbell single-leg Romanian deadlift exercises

Objective: The study compared the activities of the surface electromyography (sEMG) of trunk and hip muscles during single-leg Romanian deadlift (SLRDL) exercises using a flywheel and dumbbell with different loading positions (ipsilateral and contralateral).Method: Twelve active male subjects with at least 2 years of strength training experience (age: 26.7 ± 3.3 years; weight: 73.9 ± 6.2 kg) participated in this study. sEMG in the percentage of maximum voluntary isometric contraction of four SLRDL exercises (ipsilateral and contralateral loading position for dumbbell and flywheel) in a randomized order for superior gluteus maximus (SGM), inferior gluteus maximus (IGM), gluteus medius (GM), biceps femoris (BF), erector spinae (ES), external oblique (EO), and adductor longus (AL) were measured. One-way repeated measure ANOVA with Bonferroni adjustment (statistical significance at 0.05) and the non-clinical magnitude-based decision with a standardized difference were performed for statistical analysis.Results: The overall results demonstrated a very high level of SGM (105.4%–168.6%) and BF (69.6%–122.4%) muscle activities. A significant moderate increase of sEMG signals in GM, IGM, and ES (dominant side) and a large increase in SGM activity during concentric action when the loading position of flywheel SLRDL was changed from ipsilateral to the contralateral side. No significant difference was observed between flywheel and dumbbell SLRDL exercises.Conclusion: Strength coaches may adopt dumbbell or flywheel SLRDL exercises using the contralateral loading position to simultaneously strengthen the hip extensors and trunk stabilizers effectively

Growth-differentiation factor-8 (GDF-8) in the uterus: its identification and functional significance in the golden hamster

Transforming growth factor-beta superfamily regulates many aspects of reproduction in the female. We identified a novel member of this family, growth-differentiation factor 8 (GDF-8) in the 72 h post coital uterine fluid of the golden hamster by proteomic techniques. Uterine GDF-8 mRNA decreased as pregnancy progressed while its active protein peaked at 72 h post coitus (hpc) and thereafter stayed at a lower level. At 72 hpc, the GDF-8 transcript was localized to the endometrial epithelium while its protein accumulated in the stroma. Exogenous GDF-8 slowed down proliferation of primary cultures of uterine smooth muscle cells (SMC) and endometrial epithelial cells (EEC). In addition, GDF-8 attenuated the release of LIF (leukaemia inhibiting factor) by EEC. As for the embryo in culture, GDF-8 promoted proliferation of the trophotoderm (TM) and hatching but discouraged attachment. Our study suggests that GDF-8 could regulate the behavior of preimplantation embryos and fine-tune the physiology of uterine environment during pregnancy

Chronic adiponectin deficiency leads to Alzheimer’s disease-like cognitive impairments and pathologies through AMPK inactivation and cerebral insulin resistance in aged mice

(a) Immunoblotting analysis of IRβ in the hippocampus and frontal cortex of 18-month old wildtype and APN-KO mice. (b) Densitometric analysis of the ratio of IRβ. Mean ± S.E.M.; ***p < 0.001, n.s. statistically not significant; Scale bar: 100 μm. (JPG 30 kb

Effects of Maternal Voluntary Wheel Running During Pregnancy on Adult Hippocampal Neurogenesis, Temporal Order Memory, and Depression-Like Behavior in Adult Female and Male Offspring

Research suggests that maternal exercise in pregnancy may have beneficial effects on the brain function of offspring. This study sought to determine if voluntary wheel running during pregnancy improves depression-like behavior, temporal order memory, and hippocampal neurogenesis in both female and male offspring mice. Pregnant mice were allowed to run voluntarily by introducing running wheels into the housing cages throughout the gestational period. Male and female mice offspring at the age of 8- to 9-week-old were then tested on the temporal order task and forced swim test, then euthanized for immunostaining for examining adult hippocampal cell proliferation and neuronal differentiation. Results showed that both male and female pups had reduced depression-like behavior, while only male offspring demonstrated improvement in temporal order memory. Immunostaining revealed that male offspring showed an increase in the number of immature neurons in the ventral hippocampus, whereas female offspring showed enhanced cell proliferation in the dorsal hippocampus. These findings indicate that maternal voluntary wheel running benefits both female and male offspring on reducing depression-like behavior, but with gender effect on promoting hippocampal cell proliferation, neuronal differentiation, and temporal order memory