Using spatial variability in the rate of change of chlorophyll a to improve water quality management in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Millette, N. C., Kelble, C., Linhoss, A., Ashby, S., & Visser, L. Using spatial variability in the rate of change of chlorophyll a to improve water quality management in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary. Estuaries and Coasts, 42(7), (2019): 1792-1803, doi:10.1007/s12237-019-00610-5.Anthropogenic eutrophication threatens numerous aquatic ecosystems across the globe. Proactive management that prevents a system from becoming eutrophied is more effective and cheaper than restoring a eutrophic system, but detecting early warning signs and problematic nutrient sources in a relatively healthy system can be difficult. The goal of this study was to investigate if rates of change in chlorophyll a and nutrient concentrations at individual stations can be used to identify specific areas that need to be targeted for management. Biscayne Bay is a coastal embayment in southeast Florida with primarily adequate water quality that has experienced rapid human population growth over the last century. Water quality data collected at 48 stations throughout Biscayne Bay over a 20-year period (1995–2014) were examined to identify any water quality trends associated with eutrophication. Chlorophyll a and phosphate concentrations have increased throughout Biscayne Bay, which is a primary indicator of eutrophication. Moreover, chlorophyll a concentrations throughout the northern area, where circulation is restricted, and in nearshore areas of central Biscayne Bay are increasing at a higher rate compared to the rest of the Bay. This suggests increases in chlorophyll a are due to local nutrient sources from the watershed. These areas are also where recent seagrass die-offs have occurred, suggesting an urgent need for management intervention. This is in contrast with the state of Florida listing of Biscayne Bay as a medium priority impaired body of water.Data provided by the SERC-FIU/SFWMD Water Quality Monitoring Network is supported by SFWMD/SERC Cooperative Agreement #4600000352 as well as EPA Agreement #X7-96410603-3. This research was also funded by a NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory grant to the Northern Gulf Institute (award number NA160AR4320199)

Network approaches for formalizing conceptual models in ecosystem-based management

Funding Intermodel comparisons were supported through funding from the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program. P.S. McDonald’s involvement was funded in part by a grant from Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award number NA14OAR4170078. Funding for RPW was supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)/Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Graduate Fellowship via federal award NA14OAR4170077. Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge and thank the participants of the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program conceptual network modelling workshop at Baton Rouge, LA in July 2018. The discussions at this meeting formed some of the basis for the ideas presented in this manuscript. We also thank J. Moss and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier manuscript drafts. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. This is NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program contribution number 2021_3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Southeast Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem

The overall goal of the MARES (MARine and Estuarine goal Setting) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made both by policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes MARES overall and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first step in the process, the development of an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the third subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Southeast Florida Coast (SEFC). What follows with regard to the SEFC relies upon the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations during workshops held throughout 2009–2012 in South Florida

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

The Effect of Salinity Variability on the Mesozooplankton Community of Florida Bay

The greater Everglades ecosystem, including Florida Bay, has undergone significant anthropogenic manipulation over the past century. These actions resulted in a series of ecologically undesirable events in the Everglades ecosystem, prompting passage of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). It is necessary to understand the variability in, and relationship between, salinity and ecology to fully evaluate the potential effects of CERP on Florida Bay. A seven-year dataset on surface salinity along with eleven-year and eight-year datasets on mesozooplankton and planktivorous fish were analyzed. Overall, mean Bay-wide salinity varied from a low of 24.2 just after the passing of Hurricane Irene in October 1999 to a high of 41.8 near the end of a drought period in July 2001. Bay-wide mean salinity exhibited dramatic decreases, up to 0.5 per day, whereas increases in bay-wide salinity were slower, with a maximum rate of 0.1 per day. Meteorological phenomena, such as tropical cyclones and ENSO, dramatically altered the salinity patterns of Florida Bay on interannual time scales. There was a large degree of spatial heterogeneity in salinity between sub-regions of Florida Bay due to differing freshwater sources and geomorphology. Mesozooplankton abundance displayed interannual variability and a positive correlation with salinity. Both of these features were also closely correlated with abundance of the dominant planktivorous fish, Anchoa mitchilli, indicating the importance of top-down control. The hypersaline periods appear to provide a refuge from predators, allowing mesozooplankton to increase in abundance during periods of increased physiological stress. The interaction between mesozooplankton and A. mitchilli, along with its correlation to salinity, was further investigated through the development of a mechanistic model of the populations in Florida Bay. The model indicated predation alone was insufficient to control mesozooplankton populations; rather, it was necessary to incorporate density-dependence utilizing a logistic prey population. With both mechanisms the model was able to replicate the observed interannual variability pattern and positive correlation between mesozooplankton and salinity. A preliminary management scenario evaluation suggests a two to six-fold difference in A. mitchilli and mesozooplankton populations between targeted and general salinity reductions. This suggests alternative freshwater management scenarios could produce drastically different ecological consequences

Phytoplankton bloom status: Chlorophyll a biomass as an indicator of water quality condition in the southern estuaries of Florida, USA

Altered freshwater inflows have affected circulation, salinity, and water quality patterns of Florida Bay, in turn altering the structure and function of this estuary. Changes in water quality and salinity and associated loss of dense turtle grass and other submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Florida Bay have created a condition in the bay where sediments and nutrients have been regularly disturbed, frequently causing large and dense phytoplankton blooms. These algal and cyanobacterial blooms in turn often cause further loss of more recently established SAV, exacerbating the conditions causing the blooms. Chlorophyll a (CHLA) was selected as an indicator of water quality because it is an indicator of phytoplankton biomass, with concentrations reflecting the integrated effect of many of the water quality factors that may be altered by restoration activities. Overall, we assessed the CHLA indicator as being (1) relevant and reflecting the state of the Florida Bay ecosystem, (2) sensitive to ecosystem drivers (stressors, especially nutrient loading), (3) feasible to monitor, and (4) scientifically defensible. Distinct zones within the bay were defined according to statistical and consensual information. Threshold levels of CHLA for each zone were defined using historical data and scientific consensus. A presentation template of condition of the bay using these thresholds is shown as an example of an outreach product

VERTICAL MOVEMENT RATES OF CAPTIVE LARVAL BILLFISHES (ISTIOPHORIDAE) COLLECTED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA

Challenges associated with species identification, live collection and laboratory maintenance of billfish larvae have hindered research on their physiology and behavior. In the present study, short-duration neuston net tows in the Straits of Florida yielded 19 live istiophorid billfish larvae, which were immediately placed in a shipboard vertical swimming chamber to measure their vertical movement rates. After swimming trials, larvae were transferred to the laboratory where they were identified to species, classified as to flexion stage and measured for length. Mean vertical swimming speeds of captive larval sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) ranged from 1.0 to 7.0 cm s-1 or 1.6 to 5.6 body lengths s-1. These rates exceed most larval fish sinking rates reported for other species and are comparable to mean larval "cruising" speeds reported for several temperate freshwater and marine fishes; however, they appear far lower than most swimming speed estimates for reef fish larvae

Relationships between blooms of Karenia brevis and hypoxia across the West Florida Shelf

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf have become a nearly annual occurrence causing widespread ecological and economic harm. Effects range from minor respiratory irritation and localized fish kills to large-scale and long-term events causing massive mortalities to marine organisms. Reports of hypoxia on the shelf have been infrequent; however, there have been some indications that some HABs have been associated with localized hypoxia. We examined oceanographic data from 2004 to 2019 across the West Florida Shelf to determine the frequency of hypoxia and to assess its association with known HABs. Hypoxia was present in 5 of the 16 years examined and was always found shoreward of the 50-meter bathymetry line. There were 2 clusters of recurrent hypoxia: midshelf off the Big Bend coast and near the southwest Florida coast. We identified 3 hypoxic events that were characterized by multiple conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) casts and occurred concurrently with extreme HABs in 2005, 2014, and 2018. These HAB-hypoxia events occurred when K. brevis blooms initiated in early summer months and persisted into the fall likely driven by increased biological oxygen demand from decaying algal biomass and reduced water column ventilation due to stratification. There were also four years, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017, with low dissolved oxygen located near the shelf break that were likely associated with upwelling of deeper Gulf of Mexico water onto the shelf. We had difficulty in assessing the spatiotemporal extent of these events due to limited data availability and potentially unobserved hypoxia due to the inconsistent difference between the bottom of the CTD cast and the seafloor. While we cannot unequivocally explain the association between extreme HABs and hypoxia on the West Florida Shelf, there is sufficient evidence to suggest a causal linkage between them