Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. --Oil price,survey data,forecast bias,peso problem

Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets - Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit significant nonlinear dynamics. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment.Agent based models; nonlinear expectations; survey data

Heterogeneous Forecasters and Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as market conditions summarized by stock-market misalignments and recent returns change. We find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the long run. Short-run expectations, in contrast, are consistent with weak mean reversion of stock prices

Data sets for author name disambiguation: an empirical analysis and a new resource

Data sets of publication meta data with manually disambiguated author names play an important role in current author name disambiguation (AND) research. We review the most important data sets used so far, and compare their respective advantages and shortcomings. From the results of this review, we derive a set of general requirements to future AND data sets. These include both trivial requirements, like absence of errors and preservation of author order, and more substantial ones, like full disambiguation and adequate representation of publications with a small number of authors and highly variable author names. On the basis of these requirements, we create and make publicly available a new AND data set, SCAD-zbMATH. Both the quantitative analysis of this data set and the results of our initial AND experiments with a naive baseline algorithm show the SCAD-zbMATH data set to be considerably different from existing ones. We consider it a useful new resource that will challenge the state of the art in AND and benefit the AND research community

Heteroeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in US stock market

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as market conditions summarized by stock-market misalignments and recent returns change. We find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the long run. Short-run expectations, in contrast, are consistent with weak mean reversion of stock prices

Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets: Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit significant nonlinear dynamics. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment. --agent based models,nonlinear expectations,survey data

AtlantOS Data Management Plan Framework

Version No.:1.2. -Implementation of AtlantOS Catalogue and GEOSS requirement

AtlantOS Data Management Plan Framework

Version No.: 1 Date: 30. Sep 201

Untersuchungen zur Resistenz von Acker-Fuchsschwanz in Baden-Württemberg und zur Wirkung von Herbiziden in Winterweizen im Hinblick auf die Vermeidung von Resistenz

In Verdachtsproben aus unterschiedlichen Gebieten in Baden-Württemberg konnte in den Jahren 2008 bis 2010 bei Acker-Fuchsschwanz Resistenz gegen Herbizide aus der HRAC-Gruppe A nachgewiesen werden. 2008 traten auch Biotypen mit Resistenz gegen Flupyrsulfuron (HRAC-Gruppe B) auf. 2010 wurde bei weiteren Herbiziden aus dieser Gruppe eine deutliche Wirkungsminderung festgestellt.Dieses Ergebnis spiegelte sich auch in den Ergebnissen der Feldversuche wider. Bei den Frühjahrsbehandlungen war nur mit der Variante Atlantis OD + Artus + Primus eine sehr gute Wirkung zu erzielen. Bei den anderen Varianten blieben auf einzelnen Standorten mit hohem Acker-Fuchsschwanzbesatz zu viele Ähren/m² stehen. Auf diesen Standorten sollte die Acker-Fuchsschwanzbekämpfung bevorzugt im Herbst durchgeführt werden. Mehrere Herbizidkombinationen mit Bodenherbiziden aus den HRAC-Gruppen K1/3 und F1 erzielten auch in früh gesätem Winterweizen sowohl gute Bekämpfungserfolge, als auch Mehrerträge, und waren wirtschaftlich.Stichwörter: Erträge, Frühjahrs- und Herbstanwendungen, Herbizidkombinationen, Resistenztest, Unkrautbekämpfung, WirtschaftlichkeitInvestigations into resistance in black-grass (Alopecurus myosuroides) in Baden-Württemberg and into herbicidal efficiency to reduce the risk of resistance developingSuspicious samples of black-grass seeds from fields in Baden-Württemberg were tested in the greenhouse in 2008 to 2010 for their degree of resistance. The resistance to ACCase-inhibiting herbicides was widespread. In the year 2008, black-grass plants from a few samples survived treatments with the ALS inhibitor flupyrsulfuron. In 2010, a few other ALS-inhibiting herbicides showed a reduced performance.Resistance to ALS and ACCase inhibitors occurred in the field trails too. Spring only applications of Atlantis OD + Artus + Primus provided very good levels of control. The other herbicides did not provide an acceptable level of control on some fields. There was still a high number of seed heads remaining in the field. On these fields, preemergence herbicides (HRAC groups K1/3 und F1) have a valuable role in resistance management strategy. The treatments in autumn with pre-emergence herbicides in mixture or sequence provided good control and economic surplus. Keywords: Application in spring and autumn, combinations of herbicides, economics, resistance test, weed control, yiel

Experimental validation of a modeling framework for upconversion enhancement in 1D-photonic crystals

Photonic structures can be designed to tailor luminescence properties of materials, which becomes particularly interesting for non-linear phenomena, such as photon upconversion. However, there is no adequate theoretical framework to optimize photonic structure designs for upconversion enhancement. Here, we present a comprehensive theoretical model describing photonic effects on upconversion and confirm the model’s predictions by experimental realization of 1D-photonic upconverter devices with large statistics and parameter scans. The measured upconversion photoluminescence enhancement reaches 82 ± 24% of the simulated enhancement, in the mean of 2480 separate measurements, scanning the irradiance and the excitation wavelength on 40 different sample designs. Additionally, the trends expected from the modeled interaction of photonic energy density enhancement, local density of optical states and internal upconversion dynamics, are clearly validated in all experimentally performed parameter scans. Our simulation tool now opens the possibility of precisely designing photonic structure designs for various upconverting materials and applications