Markov modeling of moving target defense games

We introduce a Markov-model-based framework for Moving Target Defense (MTD) analysis. The framework allows modeling of broad range of MTD strategies, provides general theorems about how the probability of a successful adversary defeating an MTD strategy is related to the amount of time/cost spent by the adversary, and shows how a multi-level composition of MTD strategies can be analyzed by a straightforward combination of the analysis for each one of these strategies. Within the proposed framework we define the concept of security capacity which measures the strength or effectiveness of an MTD strategy: the security capacity depends on MTD specific parameters and more general system parameters. We apply our framework to two concrete MTD strategies

Sex- and age-related differences in the management and outcomes of chronic heart failure: an analysis of patients from the ESC HFA EORP Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

Aims: This study aimed to assess age- and sex-related differences in management and 1-year risk for all-cause mortality and hospitalization in chronic heart failure (HF) patients. Methods and results: Of 16 354 patients included in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry, 9428 chronic HF patients were analysed [median age: 66 years; 28.5% women; mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 37%]. Rates of use of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) were high (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists: 85.7%, 88.7% and 58.8%, respectively). Crude GDMT utilization rates were lower in women than in men (all differences: P\ua0 64 0.001), and GDMT use became lower with ageing in both sexes, at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT prescription; however, age >75 years was a significant predictor of GDMT underutilization. Rates of all-cause mortality were lower in women than in men (7.1% vs. 8.7%; P\ua0=\ua00.015), as were rates of all-cause hospitalization (21.9% vs. 27.3%; P\ua075 years. Conclusions: There was a decline in GDMT use with advanced age in both sexes. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT or adverse outcomes. However, age >75 years independently predicted lower GDMT use and higher all-cause mortality in patients with LVEF 6445%

Finding File Fragments in the Cloud

Part 4: CLOUD FORENSICSInternational audienceAs the use – and abuse – of cloud computing increases, it becomes necessary to conduct forensic analyses of cloud computing systems. This paper evaluates the feasibility of performing a digital forensic investigation on a cloud computing system. Specifically, experiments were conducted on the Nimbula on-site cloud operating system to determine if meaningful information can be extracted from a cloud system. The experiments involved planting known, unique files in a cloud computing infrastructure, and subsequently performing forensic captures of the virtual machine image that executes in the cloud. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract key information about a cloud system and, in certain cases, even re-start a virtual machine

Standardised assessment of evidence supporting the adoption of mobile health solutions: A Clinical Consensus Statement of the ESC Regulatory Affairs Committee

Mobile health (mHealth) solutions have the potential to improve self-management and clinical care. For successful integration into routine clinical practice, healthcare professionals (HCPs) need accepted criteria helping the mHealth solutions’ selection, while patients require transparency to trust their use. Information about their evidence, safety and security may be hard to obtain and consensus is lacking on the level of required evidence. The new Medical Device Regulation is more stringent than its predecessor, yet its scope does not span all intended uses and several difficulties remain. The European Society of Cardiology Regulatory Affairs Committee set up a Task Force to explore existing assessment frameworks and clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence. This knowledge was used to propose criteria with which HCPs could evaluate mHealth solutions spanning diagnostic support, therapeutics, remote follow-up and education, specifically for cardiac rhythm management, heart failure and preventive cardiology. While curated national libraries of health apps may be helpful, their requirements and rigour in initial and follow-up assessments may vary significantly. The recently developed CEN-ISO/TS 82304-2 health app quality assessment framework has the potential to address this issue and to become a widely used and efficient tool to help drive decision-making internationally. The Task Force would like to stress the importance of co-development of solutions with relevant stakeholders, and maintenance of health information in apps to ensure these remain evidence-based and consistent with best practice. Several general and domain-specific criteria are advised to assist HCPs in their assessment of clinical evidence to provide informed advice to patients about mHealth utilisation

Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

Objectives: This study compared the performance of major heart failure (HF) risk models in predicting mortality and examined their utilization using data from a contemporary multinational registry. Background: Several prognostic risk scores have been developed for ambulatory HF patients, but their precision is still inadequate and their use limited. Methods: This registry enrolled patients with HF seen in participating European centers between May 2011 and April 2013. The following scores designed to estimate 1- to 2-year all-cause mortality were calculated in each participant: CHARM (Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality), GISSI-HF (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure), MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), and SHFM (Seattle Heart Failure Model). Patients with hospitalized HF (n = 6,920) and ambulatory HF patients missing any variable needed to estimate each score (n = 3,267) were excluded, leaving a final sample of 6,161 patients. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 5,653 of 6,161 patients (91.8%) were alive. The observed-to-predicted survival ratios (CHARM: 1.10, GISSI-HF: 1.08, MAGGIC: 1.03, and SHFM: 0.98) suggested some overestimation of mortality by all scores except the SHFM. Overprediction occurred steadily across levels of risk using both the CHARM and the GISSI-HF, whereas the SHFM underpredicted mortality in all risk groups except the highest. The MAGGIC showed the best overall accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.743), similar to the GISSI-HF (AUC = 0.739; p = 0.419) but better than the CHARM (AUC = 0.729; p = 0.068) and particularly better than the SHFM (AUC = 0.714; p = 0.018). Less than 1% of patients received a prognostic estimate from their enrolling physician. Conclusions: Performance of prognostic risk scores is still limited and physicians are reluctant to use them in daily practice. The need for contemporary, more precise prognostic tools should be considered

Guía ESC 2020 para el tratamiento de las cardiopatías congénitas del adulto

status: publishe