Evidence synthesis as the basis for decision analysis: a method of selecting the best agricultural practices for multiple ecosystem services

Agricultural management practices have impacts not only on crops and livestock, but also on soil, water, wildlife, and ecosystem services. Agricultural research provides evidence about these impacts, but it is unclear how this evidence should be used to make decisions. Two methods are widely used in decision making: evidence synthesis and decision analysis. However, a system of evidence-based decision making that integrates these two methods has not yet been established. Moreover, the standard methods of evidence synthesis have a narrow focus (e.g., the effects of one management practice), but the standard methods of decision analysis have a wide focus (e.g., the comparative effectiveness of multiple management practices). Thus, there is a mismatch between the outputs from evidence synthesis and the inputs that are needed for decision analysis. We show how evidence for a wide range of agricultural practices can be reviewed and summarized simultaneously (“subject-wide evidence synthesis”), and how this evidence can be assessed by experts and used for decision making (“multiple-criteria decision analysis”). We show how these methods could be used by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) in California to select the best management practices for multiple ecosystem services in Mediterranean-type farmland and rangeland, based on a subject-wide evidence synthesis that was published by Conservation Evidence (www.conservationevidence.com). This method of “evidence-based decision analysis” could be used at different scales, from the local scale (farmers deciding which practices to adopt) to the national or international scale (policy makers deciding which practices to support through agricultural subsidies or other payments for ecosystem services). We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this method, and we suggest some general principles for improving evidence synthesis as the basis for multi-criteria decision analysis

How many births in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will not be attended by a skilled birth attendant between 2011 and 2015?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The fifth Millennium Development Goal target for 90% of births in low and middle income countries to have a skilled birth attendant (SBA) by 2015 will not be met. In response to this, policy has focused on increasing SBA access. However, reducing maternal mortality also requires policies to prevent deaths among women giving birth unattended. We aimed to generate estimates of the absolute number of non-SBA births between 2011 and 2015 in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, given optimistic assumptions of future trends in SBA attendance. These estimates could be used by decision makers to inform the extent to which reductions in maternal mortality will depend on policies aimed specifically at those women giving birth unattended.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For each country within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa we estimated recent trends in SBA attendance and used these as the basis for three increasingly optimistic projections for future changes in SBA attendance. For each country we obtained estimates for the current SBA attendance in rural and urban settings and forecasts for the number of births and changes in rural/urban population over 2011-2015. Based on these, we calculated estimates for the number of non-SBA births for 2011-2015 under a variety of scenarios.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Conservative estimates are that there will be between 130 and 180 million non-SBA births in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa from 2011 to 2015 (90% of these in rural areas). Currently, there are more non-SBA births per year in South Asia than sub-Saharan Africa, but our projections suggest that the regions will have approximately the same number of non-SBA births by 2015. We also present results for each of the six countries currently accounting for more than 50% of global maternal deaths.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Over the next five years, many millions of women within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will give birth without an SBA. Efforts to improve access to skilled attendance should be accompanied by interventions to improve the safety of non-attended deliveries.</p

An Evolutionarily Conserved Function of Polycomb Silences the MHC Class I Antigen Presentation Pathway and Enables Immune Evasion in Cancer.

Loss of MHC class I (MHC-I) antigen presentation in cancer cells can elicit immunotherapy resistance. A genome-wide CRISPR/Cas9 screen identified an evolutionarily conserved function of polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) that mediates coordinated transcriptional silencing of the MHC-I antigen processing pathway (MHC-I APP), promoting evasion of T cell-mediated immunity. MHC-I APP gene promoters in MHC-I low cancers harbor bivalent activating H3K4me3 and repressive H3K27me3 histone modifications, silencing basal MHC-I expression and restricting cytokine-induced upregulation. Bivalent chromatin at MHC-I APP genes is a normal developmental process active in embryonic stem cells and maintained during neural progenitor differentiation. This physiological MHC-I silencing highlights a conserved mechanism by which cancers arising from these primitive tissues exploit PRC2 activity to enable immune evasion.Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship C53779/A20097 (M.L.B), Leukaemia Foundation Australia Senior Fellowship and Howard Hughes Medical Institute International Research Scholarship 55008729 (M.A.D), Peter and Julie Alston Centenary fellowship (K.D.S.), Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellowship 101835/Z/13/Z (P.J.L), Peter MacCallum Postgraduate Scholarship (C.E.S), NHMRC Postgraduate Scholarship (K.L.C.), Maddie Riewoldt's Vision 064728 (Y-C.C), Victorian Cancer Agency (E.Y.N.L), CSL Centenary fellowship (S-J.D), National Breast Cancer Foundation Fellowship ECF-17-005 (P.A.B.), Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust and NIHR Cambridge BRC (M.L.B., P.J.L), NHMRC grant 1085015, 1106444 (M.A.D) and 1128984 (M.A.D, S-J.D)

Submicroscopic Gametocytes and the Transmission of Antifolate-Resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the dhfr and dhps genes are associated with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) treatment failure and gametocyte carriage. This may result in enhanced transmission of mutant malaria parasites, as previously shown for chloroquine resistant parasites. In the present study, we determine the association between parasite mutations, submicroscopic P. falciparum gametocytemia and malaria transmission to mosquitoes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Samples from children treated with SP alone or in combination with artesunate (AS) or amodiaquine were genotyped for SNPs in the dhfr and dhps genes. Gametocytemia was determined by microscopy and Pfs25 RNA-based quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (Pfs25 QT-NASBA). Transmission was determined by membrane-feeding assays. We observed no wild type infections, 66.5% (127/191) of the infections expressed mutations at all three dhfr codons prior to treatment. The presence of all three mutations was not related to higher Pfs25 QT-NASBA gametocyte prevalence or density during follow-up, compared to double mutant infections. The proportion of infected mosquitoes or oocyst burden was also not related to the number of mutations. Addition of AS to SP reduced gametocytemia and malaria transmission during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In our study population where all infections had at least a double mutation in the dhfr gene, additional mutations were not related to increased submicroscopic gametocytemia or enhanced malaria transmission. The absence of wild-type infections is likely to have reduced our power to detect differences. Our data further support the use of ACT to reduce the transmission of drug-resistant malaria parasites

Safety and Efficacy of Methylene Blue Combined with Artesunate or Amodiaquine for Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria: A Randomized Controlled Trial from Burkina Faso

Besides existing artemisinin-based combination therapies, alternative safe, effective and affordable drug combinations against falciparum malaria are needed. Methylene blue (MB) was the first synthetic antimalarial drug ever used, and recent studies have been promising with regard to its revival in malaria therapy. The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of two MB-based malaria combination therapies, MB-artesunate (AS) and MB-amodiaquine (AQ), compared to the local standard of care, AS-AQ, in Burkina Faso.Open-label randomised controlled phase II study in 180 children aged 6-10 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Nouna, north-western Burkina Faso. Follow-up was for 28 days and analysis by intention-to-treat. The treatment groups were similar in baseline characteristics and there was only one loss to follow-up. No drug-related serious adverse events and no deaths occurred. MB-containing regimens were associated with mild vomiting and dysuria. No early treatment failures were observed. Parasite clearance time differed significantly among groups and was the shortest with MB-AS. By day 14, the rates of adequate clinical and parasitological response after PCR-based correction for recrudescence were 87% for MB-AS, 100% for MB-AQ (p = 0.004), and 100% for AS-AQ (p = 0.003). By day 28, the respective figure was lowest for MB-AS (62%), intermediate for the standard treatment AS-AQ (82%; p = 0.015), and highest for MB-AQ (95%; p<0.001; p = 0.03).MB-AQ is a promising alternative drug combination against malaria in Africa. Moreover, MB has the potential to further accelerate the rapid parasite clearance of artemisinin-based combination therapies. More than a century after the antimalarial properties of MB had been described, its role in malaria control deserves closer attention.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00354380

A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles)

Models capturing the full effects of weather conditions on animal populations are scarce. Here we decompose yearly temperature and rainfall into mean trends, yearly amplitude of change and residual variation, using daily records. We establish from multi-model inference procedures, based on 1125 life histories (from 1987 to 2008), that European badger (Meles meles) annual mortality and recruitment rates respond to changes in mean trends and to variability in proximate weather components. Variation in mean rainfall was by far the most influential predictor in our analysis. Juvenile survival and recruitment rates were highest at intermediate levels of mean rainfall, whereas low adult survival rates were associated with only the driest, and not the wettest, years. Both juvenile and adult survival rates also exhibited a range of tolerance for residual standard deviation around daily predicted temperature values, beyond which survival rates declined. Life-history parameters, annual routines and adaptive behavioural responses, which define the badgers’ climatic niche, thus appear to be predicated upon a bounded range of climatic conditions, which support optimal survival and recruitment dynamics. That variability in weather conditions is influential, in combination with mean climatic trends, on the vital rates of a generalist, wide ranging and K-selected medium-sized carnivore, has major implications for evolutionary ecology and conservation

A mathematical model of quorum sensing regulated EPS production in biofilm communities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biofilms are microbial communities encased in a layer of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The EPS matrix provides several functional purposes for the biofilm, such as protecting bacteria from environmental stresses, and providing mechanical stability. Quorum sensing is a cell-cell communication mechanism used by several bacterial taxa to coordinate gene expression and behaviour in groups, based on population densities.</p> <p>Model</p> <p>We mathematically model quorum sensing and EPS production in a growing biofilm under various environmental conditions, to study how a developing biofilm impacts quorum sensing, and conversely, how a biofilm is affected by quorum sensing-regulated EPS production. We investigate circumstances when using quorum-sensing regulated EPS production is a beneficial strategy for biofilm cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that biofilms that use quorum sensing to induce increased EPS production do not obtain the high cell populations of low-EPS producers, but can rapidly increase their volume to parallel high-EPS producers. Quorum sensing-induced EPS production allows a biofilm to switch behaviours, from a colonization mode (with an optimized growth rate), to a protection mode.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A biofilm will benefit from using quorum sensing-induced EPS production if bacteria cells have the objective of acquiring a thick, protective layer of EPS, or if they wish to clog their environment with biomass as a means of securing nutrient supply and outcompeting other colonies in the channel, of their own or a different species.</p

Structure and Functional Analysis of the RNA- and Viral Phosphoprotein-Binding Domain of Respiratory Syncytial Virus M2-1 Protein

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) protein M2-1 functions as an essential transcriptional cofactor of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) complex by increasing polymerase processivity. M2-1 is a modular RNA binding protein that also interacts with the viral phosphoprotein P, another component of the RdRp complex. These binding properties are related to the core region of M2-1 encompassing residues S58 to K177. Here we report the NMR structure of the RSV M2-158–177 core domain, which is structurally homologous to the C-terminal domain of Ebola virus VP30, a transcription co-factor sharing functional similarity with M2-1. The partial overlap of RNA and P interaction surfaces on M2-158–177, as determined by NMR, rationalizes the previously observed competitive behavior of RNA versus P. Using site-directed mutagenesis, we identified eight residues located on these surfaces that are critical for an efficient transcription activity of the RdRp complex. Single mutations of these residues disrupted specifically either P or RNA binding to M2-1 in vitro. M2-1 recruitment to cytoplasmic inclusion bodies, which are regarded as sites of viral RNA synthesis, was impaired by mutations affecting only binding to P, but not to RNA, suggesting that M2-1 is associated to the holonucleocapsid by interacting with P. These results reveal that RNA and P binding to M2-1 can be uncoupled and that both are critical for the transcriptional antitermination function of M2-1

Finding Our Way through Phenotypes

Despite a large and multifaceted effort to understand the vast landscape of phenotypic data, their current form inhibits productive data analysis. The lack of a community-wide, consensus-based, human- and machine-interpretable language for describing phenotypes and their genomic and environmental contexts is perhaps the most pressing scientific bottleneck to integration across many key fields in biology, including genomics, systems biology, development, medicine, evolution, ecology, and systematics. Here we survey the current phenomics landscape, including data resources and handling, and the progress that has been made to accurately capture relevant data descriptions for phenotypes. We present an example of the kind of integration across domains that computable phenotypes would enable, and we call upon the broader biology community, publishers, and relevant funding agencies to support efforts to surmount today's data barriers and facilitate analytical reproducibility