"Explaining the September 1992 ERM Crisis: The Maastricht Bargain and Domestic Politics in Germany, France and Great Britain"

At the time of the September 1992 crisis, the conventional wisdom held in the ERM was due to an unfortunate contuence of exceptional circumstances -- the shock of German reunification, a debt-driven recession in Britain, and the uncertainties caused by the Danish and French referenda on Maastricht. This paper points to systemic factors at both the EC and domestic levels in explaining the September crisis. At the Community level, it is argued that the ERM was the victim of an underlying structural flaw in the Maastricht 3-stage plan for EMU. Intergovemmental bargaining, reflecting the differing national preferences of Germany and France in particular, produced an untenable compromise with potentially chaotic consequences: the matching of demanding economic convergence criteria with a strict timetable for their fulfillment, upon commencement of Stage II of the EMU process set for January 1994. Far from being epiphenomenal, this bargain was only the latest manifestation of an ongoing debate between "economist" and monetarist" approaches to monetary integration, tracing back to the early 1970s. and I argue that the "framing effects" of the Stage II criteria fundamentally altered the nature of economic discourse at Stage I, beginning in 1990. Specific reference numbers for debt ratios and relative and interest rate targets emphasized economic divergence in countries with clearly overvalued currencies, and invited markets to test the strength of govemments' political commitments to their exchange rate pegs. The second component of my explanation of the September crisis lies at the domestic level. Even though strict convergence criteria and timetables provided a severe test of the credibility of members' European commitments, it was not a foregone conclusion that the Maastricht bargain would result in turbulence on the currency markets. A margin of maneuver was left to the member governments, through the demonstration of a willingness to take painful measures, such as fiscal and wage restraint or timely interest rate hikes, to defend the ERM commitment

Nucleation of second-phase near elastic defects in crystalline solids

The problem of heterogeneous nucleation of second-phase in alloys in the vicinity of elastic defects is considered. The defect can be a dislocation line or a crack tip residing in a crystalline solid. We use the Ginzburg-Landau equation to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the order parameter in the environs of the defect. The model accounts for the elasticity of the solid and the interaction of order parameter field with the elastic field of the defect. A finite volume numerical method is used to solve the governing partial differential equation for the order parameter. We examine the nature of the phase transition in the vicinity of the defects.Comment: Prepared for Materials Science & Technology 2011 (MS&T'11), Columbus, Ohio, 16-20 Oct, 201

Improving the ACCRA U.S. regional cost of living index

The broadest and most commonly used measure of the cost of living across U.S. cities is the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association (ACCRA) index. This index is used by business and government organizations and the media to rank living standards and real wages across U.S. cities. In this study we reduce the aggregation bias in the index by calculating national average prices for the 59 item prices using population weights instead of the equal weight formula used by ACCRA. This correction results in a decline in the index values for all cities and changes in the rankings and bi-variate comparisons between city pairs. In some high-cost cities the index values decrease by over 25 percent, and in 74 percent of the cities the rank changes by greater than one spot.Cost and standard of living ; Wages ; Prices

Reproductive and developmental effects of phthalate diesters in females.

Phthalate diesters, widely used in flexible plastics and consumer products, have become prevalent contaminants in the environment. Human exposure is ubiquitous and higher phthalate metabolite concentrations documented in patients using medications with phthalate-containing slow release capsules raises concerns for potential health effects. Furthermore, animal studies suggest that phthalate exposure can modulate circulating hormone concentrations and thus may be able to adversely affect reproductive physiology and the development of estrogen sensitive target tissues. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review of the epidemiological and experimental animal literature examining the relationship between phthalate exposure and adverse female reproductive health outcomes. The epidemiological literature is sparse for most outcomes studied and plagued by small sample size, methodological weaknesses, and thus fails to support a conclusion of an adverse effect of phthalate exposure. Despite a paucity of experimental animal studies for several phthalates, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence to suggest that phthalates are reproductive toxicants. However, we note that the concentrations needed to induce adverse health effects are high compared to the concentrations measured in contemporary human biomonitoring studies. We propose that the current patchwork of studies, potential for additive effects and evidence of adverse effects of phthalate exposure in subsequent generations and at lower concentrations than in the parental generation support the need for further study

Ethnic Intermarriage among Immigrants: Human Capital and Assortative Mating

This paper analyzes the determinants of interethnic marriages among immigrants in the United States. The dependent variable is intermarriage across ethnic groups and the inclusion of the explanatory variables is justified by a simple rational choice economic model. A binomial logistic regression is estimated using data from the 1980 US Census, the last Census where post-migration marriages can be identified. Results show that the probability of intermarriage increases the longer a migrant resides in the U.S. and the younger the age at arrival. Both relationships can be attributable to the accumulation of US-specific human capital and an erosion of ethnic-specific human capital. Inter-ethnic marriages are more likely between individuals with similar education levels, providing evidence of positive assortative mating by education for immigrants. Construction of the availability ratio for potential spouses and group size are unique to this study, providing a more accurate measure of the marriage market by using data from several Censuses. Intermarriage is lower the greater the availability ratio and the larger the size of the group. Linguistic distance indirectly measures the effect of English language ability at arrival and is found to be a significant negative predictor of intermarriage. Those who report multiple ancestries and who were previously married are more likely to intermarry.immigrants, marriage, ethnicity/ancestry

Evidence of Program Quality and Youth Outcomes in the DYCD Out-of-School Time Initiative: Report on the Initiative's First Three Years

Examines New York City's progress in improving out-of-school-time program quality and serving more children and youth, participants' and parents' overall satisfaction with quality and accessibility, and links between programming, quality, and benefits