Effects of past and present microclimates on northern and southern plant species in a managed forest landscape

Questions: Near-ground temperatures can vary substantially over relatively short distances, enabling species with different temperature preferences and geographical distributions to co-exist within a small area. In a forest landscape, the near-ground temperatures may change due to management activities that alter forest density. As a result of such management activities, current species distributions and performances might not only be affected by current microclimates, but also by past conditions due to time-lagged responses. Location: Sweden. Methods: We examined the effects of past and current microclimates on the distributions and performances of two northern, cold-favoured, and two southern, warm-favoured, plant species in 53 managed forest sites. Each pair was represented by one vascular plant and one bryophyte species. We used temperature logger data and predictions from microclimate models based on changes in basal area to relate patterns of occurrence, abundance, and reproduction to current and past microclimate. Results: The two northern species were generally favoured by microclimates that were currently cold, characterised by later snowmelt and low accumulated heat over the growing season. In contrast, the two southern species were generally favoured by currently warm microclimates, characterised by high accumulated heat over the growing season. Species generally had higher abundance in sites with a preferred microclimate both in the past and present, and lower abundance than expected from current conditions, if the past microclimate had changed from warm to cold or vice versa, indicating time-lags in abundance patterns of the species. Conclusions: Our results show a potential importance of past and present microclimate heterogeneity for the co-existence of species with different temperature preferences in the same landscape and highlight the possibility to manage microclimates to mitigate climate change impacts on forest biodiversity

Matrix Metalloproteinase Mediated Type I Collagen Degradation is an Independent Predictor of Increased Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Postmenopausal Women

Abstract Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is often underdiagnosed in women. It is therefore of interest to identify biomarkers that indicate increased risk of AMI and thereby help clinicians to have additional focus on the difficult AMI diagnosis. Type I Collagen, a component of the cardiac extracellular matrix, is cleaved by matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) generating the neo-epitope C1M. We investigated the association between serum-C1M and AMI and evaluated whether C1M is a prognostic marker for outcome following AMI. This study is based on The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor (PERF) Study including postmenopausal women. 316 out of 5,450 women developed AMI within the follow-up period (14 years, median). A multivariate Cox analysis assessed association between serum-C1M and AMI, and re-infaction or death subsequent to AMI. The risk of AMI increased by 18% (p = 0.03) when serum-C1M was doubled and women in the highest quartile had a 33% increased risk compared to those in the low quartiles (p = 0.025). Serum-C1M was, however not related to reinfarction or death subsequent to AMI. In this study C1M was be an independent risk factor for AMI. Measuring MMP degraded type I collagen could be useful for prediction of increased risk of AMI if replicated in other cohorts

Responses of boreal forest understory plant communities to climate and forestry

A warming climate is altering species distributions and community compositions. To understand and predict changes in species distributions to climate change, we often use species occurrences together with large-scale regional climate data. This can be problematic for several reasons. Species living near the ground experience small-scale spatial variation in temperatures, i.e., microclimate, that are influenced by topography and vegetation and can therefore deviate a lot from regional temperatures. Further, climate often affects species indirectly via species interactions, and such interactions can also change with climate. And last, species may respond slower than climate changes. Ignoring these aspects can complicate our understanding of species-climate relationships. In this thesis, I examined how microclimate and changes in microclimate due to forest management impact performances, interactions, and distributions of plant species in boreal forest understory communities. First, I quantified the importance of microclimate for species performances and distributions. Specifically, I compared the effects of spring temperatures measured on local and regional scales on the population dynamics of a southern forest herb (I). I also tested how small-scale spatial microclimate variation contributed to the regional co-existence of northern and southern understory plant species (II). Second, I examined the role of species interactions in driving abundance patterns of two moss species with different temperature niches across their Swedish ranges by transplanting them separately and together across a climate gradient (III). Lastly, I investigated how understory plant communities respond to changes in microclimate caused by forest management (IV), and how past microclimates influence current patterns of species occurrence, abundance, and reproduction (II). I found that local spring temperatures had a significant effect on the population dynamics of the southern forest herb that could not be detected using regional spring temperatures (I). Spatial variation in microclimate explained the regional co-existence of two northern and two southern species, where the northern species were favoured by cold microclimates and the southern species by warm microclimates (II). In the transplant experiment (III), I found that climate-mediated competition can override the direct effects of climate and limit abundances across ranges. Lastly, I found that microclimate changes caused by forest management activities had a large effect on understory communities (IV), and that current abundances of northern and southern species were partly explained by past microclimate (II). Overall, I demonstrated that, to understand how species (particularly understory plants) respond to climate, we need to replace the standard use of regional climate data with locally measured climate data or down-scaled gridded climate data that account for variation in topography as well as vegetation. To predict how species will respond to climate change, we also need to include species interactions and how these interactions change with a changing climate. Finally, changes in microclimate following changes in forest structure have large effects on understory species. The last finding is important to consider when studying changes in understory communities in a climate context and could be used to mitigate climate effects on forest biodiversity

Responses of boreal forest understory plant communities to climate and forestry

A warming climate is altering species distributions and community compositions. To understand and predict changes in species distributions to climate change, we often use species occurrences together with large-scale regional climate data. This can be problematic for several reasons. Species living near the ground experience small-scale spatial variation in temperatures, i.e., microclimate, that are influenced by topography and vegetation and can therefore deviate a lot from regional temperatures. Further, climate often affects species indirectly via species interactions, and such interactions can also change with climate. And last, species may respond slower than climate changes. Ignoring these aspects can complicate our understanding of species-climate relationships. In this thesis, I examined how microclimate and changes in microclimate due to forest management impact performances, interactions, and distributions of plant species in boreal forest understory communities. First, I quantified the importance of microclimate for species performances and distributions. Specifically, I compared the effects of spring temperatures measured on local and regional scales on the population dynamics of a southern forest herb (I). I also tested how small-scale spatial microclimate variation contributed to the regional co-existence of northern and southern understory plant species (II). Second, I examined the role of species interactions in driving abundance patterns of two moss species with different temperature niches across their Swedish ranges by transplanting them separately and together across a climate gradient (III). Lastly, I investigated how understory plant communities respond to changes in microclimate caused by forest management (IV), and how past microclimates influence current patterns of species occurrence, abundance, and reproduction (II). I found that local spring temperatures had a significant effect on the population dynamics of the southern forest herb that could not be detected using regional spring temperatures (I). Spatial variation in microclimate explained the regional co-existence of two northern and two southern species, where the northern species were favoured by cold microclimates and the southern species by warm microclimates (II). In the transplant experiment (III), I found that climate-mediated competition can override the direct effects of climate and limit abundances across ranges. Lastly, I found that microclimate changes caused by forest management activities had a large effect on understory communities (IV), and that current abundances of northern and southern species were partly explained by past microclimate (II). Overall, I demonstrated that, to understand how species (particularly understory plants) respond to climate, we need to replace the standard use of regional climate data with locally measured climate data or down-scaled gridded climate data that account for variation in topography as well as vegetation. To predict how species will respond to climate change, we also need to include species interactions and how these interactions change with a changing climate. Finally, changes in microclimate following changes in forest structure have large effects on understory species. The last finding is important to consider when studying changes in understory communities in a climate context and could be used to mitigate climate effects on forest biodiversity

Correlations between plant climate optima across different spatial scales

International audienc

Neuronal Ablation of IKK2 Decreases Lesion Size and Improves Functional Outcome after Spinal Cord Injury in Mice

Nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) is a key modulator of inflammation and secondary injury responses in neurodegenerative disease, including spinal cord injury (SCI). Inhibition of astroglial NF-κB reduces inflammation, enhances oligodendrogenesis and improves functional recovery after SCI, however the contribution of neuronal NF-κB to secondary inflammatory responses following SCI has yet to be investigated. We demonstrate that conditional ablation of IKK2 in Synapsin 1-expressing neurons in mice (Syn1creIKK2 ) reduces activation of the classical NF-κB signaling pathway, resulting in impaired motor function and altered memory retention under naïve conditions. Following induction of a moderate SCI phosphorylated NF-κB levels decreased in the spinal cord of Syn1creIKK2 mice compared to controls, resulting in improvement in functional recovery. Histologically, Syn1creIKK2 mice exhibited reduced lesion volume but comparable microglial/leukocyte responses after SCI. In parallel, interleukin (IL)-1β expression was significantly decreased within the lesioned spinal cord, whereas IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1 were unchanged compared to control mice. We conclude that conditional ablation of IKK2 in neurons, resulting in reduced neuronal NF-B signaling, and lead to protective effects after SCI and propose the neuronal classical NF-κB pathway as a potential target for the development of new therapeutic, neuroprotective strategies for SCI

Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970–2000) and to project future (2060–2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060–2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.Peer reviewe