Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Fault-tolerant formation driving mechanism designed for heterogeneous MAVs-UGVs groups

A fault-tolerant method for stabilization and navigation of 3D heterogeneous formations is proposed in this paper. The presented Model Predictive Control (MPC) based approach enables to deploy compact formations of closely cooperating autonomous aerial and ground robots in surveillance scenarios without the necessity of a precise external localization. Instead, the proposed method relies on a top-view visual relative localization provided by the micro aerial vehicles flying above the ground robots and on a simple yet stable visual based navigation using images from an onboard monocular camera. The MPC based schema together with a fault detection and recovery mechanism provide a robust solution applicable in complex environments with static and dynamic obstacles. The core of the proposed leader-follower based formation driving method consists in a representation of the entire 3D formation as a convex hull projected along a desired path that has to be followed by the group. Such an approach provides non-collision solution and respects requirements of the direct visibility between the team members. The uninterrupted visibility is crucial for the employed top-view localization and therefore for the stabilization of the group. The proposed formation driving method and the fault recovery mechanisms are verified by simulations and hardware experiments presented in the paper

Primary care management for optimized antithrombotic treatment [PICANT]: study protocol for a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Background: Antithrombotic treatment is a continuous therapy that is often performed in general practice and requires careful safety management. The aim of this study is to investigate whether a best practice model that applies major elements of case management, including patient education, can improve antithrombotic management in primary health care in terms of reducing major thromboembolic and bleeding events. Methods: This 24-month cluster-randomized trial will be performed in 690 adult patients from 46 practices. The trial intervention will be a complex intervention involving general practitioners, health care assistants and patients with an indication for oral anticoagulation. To assess adherence to medication and symptoms in patients, as well as to detect complications early, health care assistants will be trained in case management and will use the Coagulation-Monitoring-List (Co-MoL) to regularly monitor patients. Patients will receive information (leaflets and a video), treatment monitoring via the Co-MoL and be motivated to perform self-management. Patients in the control group will continue to receive treatment-as-usual from their general practitioners. The primary endpoint is the combined endpoint of all thromboembolic events requiring hospitalization, and all major bleeding complications. Secondary endpoints are mortality, hospitalization, strokes, major bleeding and thromboembolic complications, severe treatment interactions, the number of adverse events, quality of anticoagulation, health-related quality of life and costs. Further secondary objectives will be investigated to explain the mechanism by which the intervention is effective: patients' assessment of chronic illness care, self-reported adherence to medication, general practitioners' and health care assistants' knowledge, patients' knowledge and satisfaction with shared decision making. Practice recruitment is expected to take place between July and December 2012. Recruitment of eligible patients will start in July 2012. Assessment will occur at three time points: baseline (T0), follow-up after 12 (T1) and after 24 months (T2). Discussion: The efficacy and effectiveness of individual elements of the intervention, such as antithrombotic interventions, self-management concepts in orally anticoagulated patients and the methodological tool, case-management, have already been extensively demonstrated. This project foresees the combination of several proven instruments, as a result of which we expect to profit from a reduction in the major complications associated with antithrombotic treatment

Human Bocavirus NS1 and NS1-70 Proteins Inhibit TNF-α-Mediated Activation of NF-κB by targeting p65.

Human bocavirus (HBoV), a parvovirus, is a single-stranded DNA etiologic agent causing lower respiratory tract infections in young children worldwide. Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) transcription factors play crucial roles in clearance of invading viruses through activation of many physiological processes. Previous investigation showed that HBoV infection could significantly upregulate the level of TNF-α which is a strong NF-κB stimulator. Here we investigated whether HBoV proteins modulate TNF-α-mediated activation of the NF-κB signaling pathway. We showed that HBoV NS1 and NS1-70 proteins blocked NF-κB activation in response to TNF-α. Overexpression of TNF receptor-associated factor 2 (TRAF2)-, IκB kinase alpha (IKKα)-, IκB kinase beta (IKKβ)-, constitutively active mutant of IKKβ (IKKβ SS/EE)-, or p65-induced NF-κB activation was inhibited by NS1 and NS1-70. Furthermore, NS1 and NS1-70 didn't interfere with TNF-α-mediated IκBα phosphorylation and degradation, nor p65 nuclear translocation. Coimmunoprecipitation assays confirmed the interaction of both NS1 and NS1-70 with p65. Of note, NS1 but not NS1-70 inhibited TNF-α-mediated p65 phosphorylation at ser536. Our findings together indicate that HBoV NS1 and NS1-70 inhibit NF-κB activation. This is the first time that HBoV has been shown to inhibit NF-κB activation, revealing a potential immune-evasion mechanism that is likely important for HBoV pathogenesis

Offspring's leukocyte telomere length, paternal age, and telomere elongation in sperm.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, N.I.H., ExtramuralResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tThis is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a complex genetic trait. It shortens with age and is associated with a host of aging-related disorders. Recent studies have observed that offspring of older fathers have longer LTLs. We explored the relation between paternal age and offspring's LTLs in 4 different cohorts. Moreover, we examined the potential cause of the paternal age on offspring's LTL by delineating telomere parameters in sperm donors. We measured LTL by Southern blots in Caucasian men and women (n=3365), aged 18-94 years, from the Offspring of the Framingham Heart Study (Framingham Offspring), the NHLBI Family Heart Study (NHLBI-Heart), the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins (Danish Twins), and the UK Adult Twin Registry (UK Twins). Using Southern blots, Q-FISH, and flow-FISH, we also measured telomere parameters in sperm from 46 young (50 years) donors. Paternal age had an independent effect, expressed by a longer LTL in males of the Framingham Offspring and Danish Twins, males and females of the NHLBI-Heart, and females of UK Twins. For every additional year of paternal age, LTL in offspring increased at a magnitude ranging from half to more than twice of the annual attrition in LTL with age. Moreover, sperm telomere length analyses were compatible with the emergence in older men of a subset of sperm with elongated telomeres. Paternal age exerts a considerable effect on the offspring's LTL, a phenomenon which might relate to telomere elongation in sperm from older men. The implications of this effect deserve detailed study.Supported by NIH grants R01-AG021593, R01-AG020132, and P01-AG0876. Support was also provided by NIH contract NOHC25195, the NHLBI cooperative agreement grants U01 HL 67893, U01 HL67894, U01 HL67895, U01 HL67896, U01 HL67897, U01 HL67898, U01 HL67899, U01 HL67900, U01 HL67901, U01 HL67902, U01 HL56563, U01 HL56564, U01 HL56565, U01 HL56566, U01 HL56567, U01 HL56568, and U01 HL56569. Also funded in part by the Wellcome Trust grant (ref 074951)

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1).

BACKGROUND: The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is a multifaceted hormone with broad pharmacological potential. Among the numerous metabolic effects of GLP-1 are the glucose-dependent stimulation of insulin secretion, decrease of gastric emptying, inhibition of food intake, increase of natriuresis and diuresis, and modulation of rodent β-cell proliferation. GLP-1 also has cardio- and neuroprotective effects, decreases inflammation and apoptosis, and has implications for learning and memory, reward behavior, and palatability. Biochemically modified for enhanced potency and sustained action, GLP-1 receptor agonists are successfully in clinical use for the treatment of type-2 diabetes, and several GLP-1-based pharmacotherapies are in clinical evaluation for the treatment of obesity. SCOPE OF REVIEW: In this review, we provide a detailed overview on the multifaceted nature of GLP-1 and its pharmacology and discuss its therapeutic implications on various diseases. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Since its discovery, GLP-1 has emerged as a pleiotropic hormone with a myriad of metabolic functions that go well beyond its classical identification as an incretin hormone. The numerous beneficial effects of GLP-1 render this hormone an interesting candidate for the development of pharmacotherapies to treat obesity, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders

Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

Purpose: When performing uncertainty propagation, most LCA practitioners choose to represent uncertainties by single probability distributions and to propagate them using stochastic methods. However the selection of single probability distributions appears often arbitrary when faced with scarce information or expert judgement (epistemic uncertainty). Possibility theory has been developed over the last decades to address this problem. The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent manner and apply it to LCA. A case study is used to show the uncertainty propagation performed with the proposed method and compare it to propagation performed using probability and possibility theories alone. Methods: Basic knowledge on the probability theory is first recalled, followed by a detailed description of hal-00811827, version 1- 11 Apr 2013 epistemic uncertainty representation using fuzzy intervals. The propagation methods used are the Monte Carlo analysis for probability distribution and an optimisation on alpha-cuts for fuzzy intervals. The proposed method (noted IRS) generalizes the process of random sampling to probability distributions as well as fuzzy intervals, thus making the simultaneous use of both representations possible

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR