Remote sensing of air-sea interactions

A number of preliminary concepts for the measurement or inference of fluxes across the air-sea interface through remote sensing are proposed. All the methods are achievable from aircraft with state-of-the-art technology. Only one is now ready for space implementation. The focus is on cold outbreaks. Sensible (latent) heat flux is inferred from the difference between initial surface air temperature (vapor mixing ratio) and the downwind SST (and corresponding saturation mixing ratio). The downwind growth rate of the PBL as measured by lidar also provides estimates of surface heating and the cross-inversion entrainment velocity. The lidar also provides a measure of the depth of the inversion and its penetration by surface-forced convection; this permits estimates of the surface heat flux. Lidar and radiometric measurements of cloud top height and temperature provide means of deducing the temperature sounding downstream so that heating is computed with the aid of a known sounding upstream

The Top Triangle Moose

We introduce a deconstructed model that incorporates both Higgsless and top-color mechanisms. The model alleviates the typical tension in Higgsless models between obtaining the correct top quark mass and keeping delta-rho small. It does so by singling out the top quark mass generation as arising from a Yukawa coupling to an effective top-Higgs which develops a small vacuum expectation value, while electroweak symmetry breaking results largely from a Higgsless mechanism. As a result, the heavy partners of the SM fermions can be light enough to be seen at the LHC.Comment: To appear in proceedings of SCGT09, Nagoya, Japan. 5 page

Solar radiation observation stations with complete listing of data archived by the National Climatic Center, Asheville, North Carolina and initial listing of data not currently archived

A listing is provided of organizations taking solar radiation data, the 166 stations where observations are made, the type of equipment used, the form of the recorded data, and the period of operation of each station. Included is a listing of the data from 150 solar radiation stations collected over the past 25 years and stored by the National Climatic Center

An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model

The Svensson generalization of the popular Nelson-Siegel term structure model is widely used by practitioners and central banks. Unfortunately, like the original Nelson-Siegel specification, this generalization, in its dynamic form, does not enforce arbitrage-free consistency over time. Indeed, we show that the factor loadings of the Svensson generalization cannot be obtained in a standard finance arbitrage-free affine term structure representation. Therefore, we introduce a closely related generalized Nelson-Siegel model on which the no-arbitrage condition can be imposed. We estimate this new arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel model and demonstrate its tractability and good in-sample fit.Yield Curve, Interest Rate, Bond Market, Svensson Model

Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields

Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and inflation risk premiums, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.Inflation (Finance) ; Treasury bonds

The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models

We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.arbitrage, Nelson-Siegel, term structure, factor models, forecast accuracy

Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields

We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation (i.e., a falling price level) using yields on nominal and real U.S. Treasury bonds. The deflation probability forecasts identify two "deflation scares" during the past decade: a mild one following the 2001 recession, and a more serious one starting in late 2008 with the deepening of the financial crisis. The estimated deflation probabilities are generally consistent with those from macroeconomic models and surveys of professional forecasters, but they also provide highfrequency insight into the views of financial market participants. The probabilities can also be used to price the deflation option embedded in real Treasury bonds.Deflation (Finance)

Hawking Radiation for Non-minimally Coupled Matter from Generalized 2D Black Hole Models

It is well known that spherically symmetric reduction of General Relativity (SSG) leads to non-minimally coupled scalar matter. We generalize (and correct) recent results to Hawking radiation for a class of dilaton models which share with the Schwarzschild black hole non-minimal coupling of scalar fields and the basic global structure. An inherent ambiguity of such models (if they differ from SSG) is discussed. However, for SSG we obtain the rather disquieting result of a negative Hawking flux at infinity, if the usual recipe for such calculations is applied.Comment: 8 page

High-precision abundances of elements in Kepler LEGACY stars. Verification of trends with stellar age

HARPS-N spectra with S/N > 250 and MARCS model atmospheres were used to derive abundances of C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn, and Y in ten stars from the Kepler LEGACY sample (including the binary pair 16 Cyg A and B) selected to have metallicities in the range -0.15 < [Fe/H] < +0.15 and ages between 1 and 7 Gyr. Stellar gravities were obtained from seismic data and effective temperatures were determined by comparing non-LTE iron abundances derived from FeI and FeII lines. Available non-LTE corrections were also applied when deriving abundances of the other elements. The results support the [X/Fe]-age relations previously found for solar twins. [Mg/Fe], [Al/Fe], and [Zn/Fe] decrease by ~0.1 dex over the lifetime of the Galactic thin disk due to delayed contribution of iron from Type Ia supernovae relative to prompt production of Mg, Al, and Zn in Type II supernovae. [Y/Mg] and [Y/Al], on the other hand, increase by ~0.3 dex, which can be explained by an increasing contribution of s-process elements from low-mass AGB stars as time goes on. The trends of [C/Fe] and [O/Fe] are more complicated due to variations of the ratio between refractory and volatile elements among stars of similar age. Two stars with about the same age as the Sun show very different trends of [X/H] as a function of elemental condensation temperature Tc and for 16 Cyg, the two components have an abundance difference, which increases with Tc. These anomalies may be connected to planet-star interactions.Comment: 13 pages with 7 figures. Accepted for publication in A&

The Assessment and Application of Patient Satisfaction Variables in Marketing a Psychiatric Practice

As the health care industry becomes increasingly more competitive, marketing functions will take on increasingly more importance. At the core of the marketing concept is the pursuit of customer satisfaction, or, for medical services, patient satisfaction. This study reports on the administration of a 33-item patient satisfaction questionnaire to the consumers of services in four outpatient offices of a large, group private psychiatric practice. Data are analyzed descriptively and recommendations are made for improvements of service delivery based on the findings of the survey