Desert locust populations, rainfall and climate change: insights from phenomenological models using gridded monthly data

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930–1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transformation for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent variables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change

Frequency comparisons and absolute frequency measurements of 171Yb+ single-ion optical frequency standards

We describe experiments with an optical frequency standard based on a laser cooled $^{171}$Yb$^+$ ion confined in a radiofrequency Paul trap. The electric-quadrupole transition from the $^2S_{1/2}(F=0)$ ground state to the $^2D_{3/2}(F=2)$ state at the wavelength of 436 nm is used as the reference transition. In order to compare two $^{171}$Yb$^+$ standards, separate frequency servo systems are employed to stabilize two probe laser frequencies to the reference transition line centers of two independently stored ions. The experimental results indicate a relative instability (Allan standard deviation) of the optical frequency difference between the two systems of $\sigma_y(1000 {\rm s})=5\cdot 10^{-16}$ only, so that shifts in the sub-hertz range can be resolved. Shifts of several hertz are observed if a stationary electric field gradient is superimposed on the radiofrequency trap field. The absolute optical transition frequency of Yb$^+$ at 688 THz was measured with a cesium atomic clock at two times separated by 2.8 years. A temporal variation of this frequency can be excluded within a $1\sigma$ relative uncertainty of $4.4\cdot 10^{-15}$ yr$^{-1}$. Combined with recently published values for the constancy of other transition frequencies this measurement provides a limit on the present variability of the fine structure constant $\alpha$ at the level of $2.0\cdot 10^{-15}$ yr$^{-1}$.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings of MPLP'04, Novosibirsk, August 22.-27., 200

Adaptable Value-Set Analysis for Low-Level Code

This paper presents a framework for binary code analysis that uses only SAT-based algorithms. Within the framework, incremental SAT solving is used to perform a form of weakly relational value-set analysis in a novel way, connecting the expressiveness of the value sets to computational complexity. Another key feature of our framework is that it translates the semantics of binary code into an intermediate representation. This allows for a straightforward translation of the program semantics into Boolean logic and eases the implementation efforts, too. We show that leveraging the efficiency of contemporary SAT solvers allows us to prove interesting properties about medium-sized microcontroller programs

Elastic properties of grafted microtubules

We use single-particle tracking to study the elastic properties of single microtubules grafted to a substrate. Thermal fluctuations of the free microtubule's end are recorded, in order to measure position distribution functions from which we calculate the persistence length of microtubules with contour lengths between 2.6 and 48 micrometers. We find the persistence length to vary by more than a factor of 20 over the total range of contour lengths. Our results support the hypothesis that shearing between protofilaments contributes significantly to the mechanics of microtubules.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Magnetic behavior of Fe x Sn 1 − x amorphous alloys near the critical composition

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