A bootstrap approach for assessing the uncertainty of outcome probabilities when using a scoring system

Background: Scoring systems are a very attractive family of clinical predictive models, because the patient score can be calculated without using any data processing system. Their weakness lies in the difficulty of associating a reliable prognostic probability with each score. In this study a bootstrap approach for estimating confidence intervals of outcome probabilities is described and applied to design and optimize the performance of a scoring system for morbidity in intensive care units after heart surgery. Methods: The bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap method was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals of outcome probabilities associated with a scoring system. These confidence intervals were calculated for each score and each step of the scoring-system design by means of one thousand bootstrapped samples. 1090 consecutive adult patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft were assigned at random to two groups of equal size, so as to define random training and testing sets with equal percentage morbidities. A collection of 78 preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative variables were considered as likely morbidity predictors. Results: Several competing scoring systems were compared on the basis of discrimination, generalization and uncertainty associated with the prognostic probabilities. The results showed that confidence intervals corresponding to different scores often overlapped, making it convenient to unite and thus reduce the score classes. After uniting two adjacent classes, a model with six score groups not only gave a satisfactory trade-off between discrimination and generalization, but also enabled patients to be allocated to classes, most of which were characterized by well separated confidence intervals of prognostic probabilities. Conclusions: Scoring systems are often designed solely on the basis of discrimination and generalization characteristics, to the detriment of prediction of a trustworthy outcome probability. The present example demonstrates that using a bootstrap method for the estimation of outcome-probability confidence intervals provides useful additional information about score-class statistics, guiding physicians towards the most convenient model for predicting morbidity outcomes in their clinical context

Why Don't CD8+ T Cells Reduce the Lifespan of SIV-Infected Cells In Vivo?

In January 2010 two groups independently published the observation that the depletion of CD8+ cells in SIV-infected macaques had no detectable impact on the lifespan of productively infected cells. This unexpected observation led the authors to suggest that CD8+ T cells control SIV viraemia via non-lytic mechanisms. However, a number of alternative plausible explanations, compatible with a lytic model of CD8+ T cell control, were proposed. This left the field with no consensus on how to interpret these experiments and no clear indication whether CD8+ T cells operated primarily via a lytic or a non-lytic mechanism. The aim of this work was to investigate why CD8+ T cells do not appear to reduce the lifespan of SIV-infected cells in vivo

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

Application of chemometric analysis to infrared spectroscopy for the identification of wood origin

Chemical characteristics of wood are used in this study for plant taxonomy classification based on the current Angiosperm Phylogeny Group classification (APG III System) for the division, class and subclass of woody plants. Infrared spectra contain information about the molecular structure and intermolecular interactions among the components in wood but the understanding of this information requires multivariate techniques for the analysis of highly dense datasets. This article is written with the purposes of specifying the chemical differences among taxonomic groups, and predicting the taxa of unknown samples with a mathematical model. Principal component analysis, t-test, stepwise discriminant analysis and linear discriminant analysis, were some of the chosen multivariate techniques. A procedure to determine the division, class, subclass and order of unknown samples was built with promising implications for future applications of Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy in wood taxonomy classification

The multiple meanings of "wheezing": a questionnaire survey in Portuguese for parents and health professionals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most epidemiological studies on pediatric asthma rely on the report of "wheezing" in questionnaires. Our aim was to investigate the understanding of this term by parents and health professionals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey was carried out in hospital and community settings within the south of Portugal. Parents or caregivers self-completed a written questionnaire with information on social characteristics and respiratory history. Multiple choice questions assessed their understanding of "wheezing". Health professionals (physicians, nurses and physiotherapists) were given an adapted version. We used bivariate analysis and multivariate models to study associations between definitions of "wheezing" and participants' characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Questionnaires from 425 parents and 299 health professionals were included. The term "wheezing" was not recognized by 34% of parents, more frequently those who were younger (OR 0.4 per 10-year increment, 95% CI 0.3-0.7), had lower education (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.4), and whose children had no history of respiratory disease (OR 4.6, 95% CI 2.5-8.7) (all ORs adjusted). 31% of parents familiar with "wheezing" either did not identify it as a sound, or did not locate it to the chest, while tactile (40%) and visual (34%) cues to identify "wheezing" were frequently used. Nurses reported using visual stimuli and overall assessments more often than physicians (p < 0.01). The geographical location was independently associated with how parents recognized and described "wheezing".</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Different meanings for "wheezing" are recognized in Portuguese language and may be influenced by education, respiratory history and regional terminology. These findings are likely applicable to other non-English languages, and suggest the need for more accurate questionnaires and additional objective measurement instruments to study the epidemiology of wheezing disorders.</p

Strongly exchange-coupled triplet pairs in an organic semiconductor

From biological complexes to devices based on organic semiconductors, spin interactions play a key role in the function of molecular systems. For instance, triplet-pair reactions impact operation of organic light-emitting diodes as well as photovoltaic devices. Conventional models for triplet pairs assume they interact only weakly. Here, using electron spin resonance, we observe long-lived, strongly-interacting triplet pairs in an organic semiconductor, generated via singlet fission. Using coherent spin-manipulation of these two-triplet states, we identify exchange-coupled (spin-2) quintet complexes co-existing with weakly coupled (spin-1) triplets. We measure strongly coupled pairs with a lifetime approaching 3 µs and a spin coherence time approaching 1 µs, at 10 K. Our results pave the way for the utilization of high-spin systems in organic semiconductors.Gates-Cambridge Trust, Winton Programme for the Physics of Sustainability, Freie Universität Berlin within the Excellence Initiative of the German Research Foundation, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Grant ID: EP/G060738/1)This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nphys3908

Cost-effectiveness of minimal interventional procedures for chronic mechanical low back pain: design of four randomised controlled trials with an economic evaluation

Background: Minimal interventional procedures are frequently applied in patients with mechanical low back pain which is defined as pain presumably resulting from single sources: facet, disc, sacroiliac joint or a combination of these. Usually, these minimal interventional procedures are an integral part of a multidisciplinary pain programme. A recent systematic review issued by the Dutch Health Insurance Council showed that the effectiveness of these procedures for the total group of patients with chronic low back pain is yet unclear and cost-effectiveness unknown. The aim of the study is to evaluate whether a multidisciplinary pain programme with minimal interventional procedures is cost-effective compared to the multidisciplinary pain programme alone for patients with chronic mechanical low back pain who did not respond to conservative primary care and were referred to a pain clinic. Methods. All patients with chronic low back pain who are referred to one of the 13 participating pain clinics will be asked to participate in an observational study. Patients with a suspected diagnosis of facet, disc or sacroiliac joint problems will receive a diagnostic block to confirm this diagnosis. If confirmed, they will be asked to participate in a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). For each single source a separate RCT will be conducted. Patients with a combination of facet, disc or sacroiliac joint problems will be invited for participation in a RCT as well. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective will be performed alongside these four RCTs. Patients will complete questionnaires at baseline, 3 and 6 weeks, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after start of the treatment