Energy security and economic stability: the role of inflation and war

This paper investigates the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability. Using multiple global datasets, we provide empirical evidence from an unbalanced panel of 68 countries spanning over a period from 1980 to 2021. Our results indicate that high ESR reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG) from a global perspective. In robustness tests, this effect remains valid across several specifications based on non-U.S. samples, national income-level, alternative measure of economic stability, and a set of endogeneity tests based on propensity score matching estimation. Countries with pre-existing low GDPG mainly suffer from heightened energy insecurity. Numerous country-specific institutional quality estimates. Finally, the damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation, geopolitical risk and acts, as well as of escalated war threats. We encourage international collaborations to develop a more sustainable energy system, which enhances the security of energy supply and the stability of economy

Risk modelling of ESG (environmental, social, and governance), healthcare, and financial sectors

Climate change poses enormous ecological, socio-economic, health, and financial challenges. A novel extreme value theory is employed in this study to model the risk to environmental, social, and governance (ESG), healthcare, and financial sectors and assess their downside risk, extreme systemic risk, and extreme spillover risk. We use a rich set of global daily data of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2022 in the case of healthcare and financial sectors and from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2022 in the case of ESG sector. We find that the financial sector is the riskiest when we consider the tail index, tail quantile, and tail expected shortfall. However, the ESG sector exhibits the highest tail risk in the extreme environment when we consider a shock in the form of an ETF drop of 25% or 50%. The ESG sector poses the highest extreme systemic risk when a shock comes from China. Finally, we find that ESG and healthcare sectors have lower extreme spillover risk (contagion risk) compared to the financial sector. Our study seeks to provide valuable insights for developing sustainable economic, business, and financial strategies. To achieve this, we conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of the ESG, healthcare, and financial sectors, employing an innovative approach to risk modelling in response to ecological challenges

The evolution of corporate social responsibility in China: Do political connection and ownership matter?

The rising CSR awareness globally has influence CSR development in China but unlike anywhere in the world, the central government is always the main driver of CSR here, making it a unique case study. Under this political state, this study examines how a firm's political connections and foreign ownership affects its CSR reporting. We study a long sample over 4 different stages of CSR development in China between 2006 and 2019 with panel regression analysis. Our results show that CSR reporting and participation have increased over the sample period, but firms with political connection and foreign ownership are associated with lower levels of CSR reporting. The findings contradict theories of political cost theory that fit well in other countries. We propose crony relationship to explain the phenomena of low CSR compliance in the political linked firms in China. We further study Xi Jinping (XJP) regime and find that CSR reporting in China improved significantly in this regime but XJP regime moderates the state and foreign owned firms differently. Under XJP government, crony relationship has reduced following improved CSR reporting in politically connected firms, but CSR score has declined in foreign owned firms, implying they have become more opportunistic in cutting business cost and seeking profit

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Banking Risk: International Evidence

We study the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on banking risk. Using a large sample of 21,618 unique banks over a period from 2010 to 2021, our results reveal that geopolitical risk (GPR) significantly increases (erodes) banking risk (stability). This finding remains robust using alternative measures of GPR, such as geopolitical acts (GPRA), historical GPR, and U.S-specific GPR indices. Banks that are medium and large in size, measured based on total assets and total loans, and banks that specialize in commercial and savings banking are riskier when GPR is high. Furthermore, the negative effect of GPR is valid for both U.S. and non-U.S. banks, banks originating from NATO member countries, as well as for subsamples excluding Russian and Chinese banks. The increased banking risk mainly attributed to reduction in bank capital and escalated fluctuations in bank profitability. Quantile regressions suggest that the link between GPR and banking risk is not influenced by banks’ pre-existing levels of risk. Our baseline findings survive a set of robustness tests based on change-on-change regressions. Next, we show that banks are more vulnerable against heightened war-based geopolitical uncertainty, such as war threats, military buildups, nuclear threats, beginning of war, and escalation of war. Finally, we find that the detrimental effect of GPR is moderated by banks’ goodwill, capital adequacy, managerial quality, and certain types of bank loans

Assessing the environmental impacts of renewable energy sources: A case study on air pollution and carbon emissions in China

This study investigates the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy sources on carbon emissions in the context of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). The plan emphasises a “Dual-control” strategy of simultaneously setting energy consumption limits and reducing energy intensity for GDP (gross domestic product) in order to meet the targets of the five-year plan. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese energy and macroeconomic information spanning from 1990 to 2022, we conduct a Granger causality analysis to explore the relationship between energy sources and the level of air pollution. Our findings reveal a unidirectional link, wherein renewable energy contributes to a reduction in air pollution, while non-renewable energy sources lead to an increase. Despite the government's investment in renewable energy, our results show that China's economy remains heavily reliant on traditional energy sources (e.g., fossil fuels). This research is the first systematic examination of the interplay between energy usage and carbon emissions in the Chinese context. Our findings provide valuable insights for policy and market strategies aimed at promoting carbon neutrality and driving technological advancements in both government and industries