Predictability of bitcoin returns

This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors

Predictability of bitcoin returns

This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors

Herding behavior in prediction markets: Evidence from UK financial spread trading markets

We contrast the degree (strong vs. weak), nature (interaction between more and less informed traders; MI and LI, respectively) and patterns of herding behavior (via their feedback strategies) amongst MI and LI traders and their speed of reaction to shifts in trading by these groups. This is achieved by analyzing individual investment records of 1,943 traders in UK spread-trading markets (2010-2012). We find that herding is far more prevalent than previous studies suggest, particularly amongst LI, herding activity of MI and LI are related and the means used to distinguish MI and LI needs to be considered carefully

Herding Behavior in Prediction Markets: Evidence from UK Financial Spread-Trading Markets

We contrast the degree (strong vs. weak), nature (interaction between more and less informed traders; MI and LI, respectively), and patterns of herding behavior (via their feedback strategies) among MI and LI traders and their speed of reaction to shifts in trading by these groups. This is achieved by analyzing individual investment records of 1,943 traders in UK spread-trading markets (2010–2012). We find that herding is far more prevalent than previous studies suggest, particularly among LI; herding activities of MI and LI are related, and the means used to distinguish MI and LI needs to be considered carefully

Foreign direct investment and employment rights in South-Eastern Europe

The dominant neoliberal policy community holds that a reduction in employment rights and social protection is likely to promote economic recovery and growth. It has been suggested that investors are likely to shun countries where such rights are strong; in contrast, radical labour market deregulation is seen as encouraging both local business and multinationals to invest. This study explores whether labour market deregulation in South-Eastern Europe has really encouraged multinationals to invest in the region. We find that the weakening of important aspects of employment rights under the law appears to detract from, rather than encourage, foreign direct investment (FDI). We also show that stronger employment rights are more likely to attract FDI when the host country is located within the European Union. This finding suggests that the complementarities associated with stronger employment rights and more committed labour may offset the overall deterrent effects of the greater regulation associated with EU membership