Bimodal Distribution of Sulfuric Acid Aerosols in the Upper Haze of Venus

The upper haze (UH) of Venus is variable on the order of days and it is populated by two particle modes. We use a 1D microphysics and vertical transport model based on the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres to evaluate whether interaction of upwelled cloud particles and sulfuric acid particles nucleated in situ on meteoric dust are able to generate the two size modes and whether their observed variability are due to cloud top vertical transient winds. Nucleation of photochemically produced sulfuric acid onto polysulfur condensation nuclei generates mode 1 cloud droplets that then diffuse upwards into the UH. Droplets generated in the UH from nucleation of sulfuric acid onto meteoric dust coagulate with the upwelled cloud particles and cannot reproduce the observed bimodal size distribution. The mass transport enabled by cloud top transient winds are able to generate a bimodal size distribution in a time scale consistent with observations. Sedimentation and convection in the middle and lower clouds causes the formation of large mode 2 and mode 3 particles. Evaporation of these particles below the clouds creates a local sulfuric acid vapor maximum that causes upwelling of sulfuric acid back into the clouds. If the polysulfur condensation nuclei are small and their production rate is high, coagulation of small droplets onto larger droplets in the middle cloud may result in sulfuric acid "rain" below the clouds once every few Earth months. Reduction of the polysulfur condensation nuclei production rate destroys this oscillation and reduces the mode 1 particle abundance in the middle cloud by two orders of magnitude, though it better reproduces the sulfur-to-sulfuric-acid mass ratio in the cloud and haze droplets. In general we find satisfactory agreement between our results and observations, though improvements could be made by incorporating sulfur microphysics.Comment: 62 pages, 18 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Icaru

Observation of critical phenomena and self-similarity in the gravitational collapse of radiation fluid

We observe critical phenomena in spherical collapse of radiation fluid. A sequence of spacetimes $\cal{S}[\eta]$ is numerically computed, containing models ($\eta\ll 1$) that adiabatically disperse and models ($\eta\gg 1$) that form a black hole. Near the critical point ($\eta_c$), evolutions develop a self-similar region within which collapse is balanced by a strong, inward-moving rarefaction wave that holds $m(r)/r$ constant as a function of a self-similar coordinate $\xi$. The self-similar solution is known and we show near-critical evolutions asymptotically approaching it. A critical exponent $\beta \simeq 0.36$ is found for supercritical ($\eta>\eta_c$) models.Comment: 10 pages (LaTeX) (to appear in Phys. Rev. Lett.), TAR-039-UN

CP Violation in B -> pi+ pi- and the Unitarity Triangle

We analyze the extraction of weak phases from CP violation in $B\to\pi^+\pi^-$ decays. We propose to determine the unitarity triangle $(\bar\rho,\bar\eta)$ by combining the information on mixing induced CP violation in $B\to\pi^+\pi^-$, $S$, with the precision observable $\sin 2\beta$ obtained from the CP asymmetry in $B\to\psi K_S$. It is then possible to write down exact analytical expressions for $\bar\rho$ and $\bar\eta$ as simple functions of the observables $S$ and $\sin 2\beta$, and of the penguin parameters $r$ and $\phi$. As an application clean lower bounds on $\bar\eta$ and $1-\bar\rho$ can be derived as functions of $S$ and $\sin 2\beta$, essentially without hadronic uncertainty. Computing $r$ and $\phi$ within QCD factorization yields precise determinations of $\bar\rho$ and $\bar\eta$ since the dependence on $r$ and $\phi$ is rather weak. It is emphasized that the sensitivity to the phase $\phi$ enters only at second order and is extremely small for moderate values of this phase, predicted in the heavy-quark limit. Transparent analytical formulas are further given and discussed for the parameter $C$ of direct CP violation in $B\to\pi^+\pi^-$. We also discuss alternative ways to analyze $S$ and $C$ that can be useful if new physics affects $B_d$--$\bar B_d$ mixing. Predictions and uncertainties for $r$ and $\phi$ in QCD factorization are examined in detail. It is pointed out that a simultaneous expansion in $1/m_b$ and 1/N leads to interesting simplifications. At first order infrared divergences are absent, while the most important effects are retained. Independent experimental tests of the factorization framework are briefly discussed.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

The Potential Impact of Nuclear Conflict on Ocean Acidification

We demonstrate that the global cooling resulting from a range of nuclear conflict scenarios would temporarily increase the pH in the surface ocean by up to 0.06 units over a 5-year period, briefly alleviating the decline in pH associated with ocean acidification. Conversely, the global cooling dissolves atmospheric carbon into the upper ocean, driving a 0.1 to 0.3 unit decrease in the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) that persists for ∼10 years. The peak anomaly in pH occurs 2 years post conflict, while the Ωarag anomaly peaks 4- to 5-years post conflict. The decrease in Ωarag would exacerbate a primary threat of ocean acidification: the inability of marine calcifying organisms to maintain their shells/skeletons in a corrosive environment. Our results are based on sensitivity simulations conducted with a state-of-the-art Earth system model integrated under various black carbon (soot) external forcings. Our findings suggest that regional nuclear conflict may have ramifications for global ocean acidification

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MIdentificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA projectNuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US–Russia war under business-as-usual fishing—similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management

The s ---> d gamma decay in and beyond the Standard Model

The New Physics sensitivity of the s ---> d gamma transition and its accessibility through hadronic processes are thoroughly investigated. Firstly, the Standard Model predictions for the direct CP-violating observables in radiative K decays are systematically improved. Besides, the magnetic contribution to epsilon prime is estimated and found subleading, even in the presence of New Physics, and a new strategy to resolve its electroweak versus QCD penguin fraction is identified. Secondly, the signatures of a series of New Physics scenarios, characterized as model-independently as possible in terms of their underlying dynamics, are investigated by combining the information from all the FCNC transitions in the s ---> d sector.Comment: 54 pages, 14 eps figure