Best practices to maximize the use and reuse of quantitative and systems pharmacology models: recommendations from the United Kingdom quantitative and systems pharmacology network

The lack of standardization in the way that quantitative and systems pharmacology (QSP) models are developed, tested, and documented hinders their reproducibility, reusability, and expansion or reduction to alternative contexts. This in turn undermines the potential impact of QSP in academic, industrial, and regulatory frameworks. This article presents a minimum set of recommendations from the UK Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology Network (UK QSP Network) to guide QSP practitioners seeking to maximize their impact, and stakeholders considering the use of QSP models in their environment

An orally bioavailable broad-spectrum antiviral inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in human airway epithelial cell cultures and multiple coronaviruses in mice

Coronaviruses (CoVs) traffic frequently between species resulting in novel disease outbreaks, most recently exemplified by the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Herein, we show that the ribonucleoside analog β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC, EIDD-1931) has broad spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and related zoonotic group 2b or 2c Bat-CoVs, as well as increased potency against a coronavirus bearing resistance mutations to the nucleoside analog inhibitor remdesivir. In mice infected with SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV, both prophylactic and therapeutic administration of EIDD-2801, an orally bioavailable NHC-prodrug (β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine-5′-isopropyl ester), improved pulmonary function, and reduced virus titer and body weight loss. Decreased MERS-CoV yields in vitro and in vivo were associated with increased transition mutation frequency in viral but not host cell RNA, supporting a mechanism of lethal mutagenesis in CoV. The potency of NHC/EIDD-2801 against multiple coronaviruses and oral bioavailability highlight its potential utility as an effective antiviral against SARS-CoV-2 and other future zoonotic coronaviruses

Small-Molecule Antiviral β-d-N4-Hydroxycytidine Inhibits a Proofreading-Intact Coronavirus with a High Genetic Barrier to Resistance

Coronaviruses (CoVs) have emerged from animal reservoirs to cause severe and lethal disease in humans, but there are currently no FDA-approved antivirals to treat the infections. One class of antiviral compounds, nucleoside analogues, mimics naturally occurring nucleosides to inhibit viral replication. While these compounds have been successful therapeutics for several viral infections, mutagenic nucleoside analogues, such as ribavirin and 5-fluorouracil, have been ineffective at inhibiting CoVs. This has been attributed to the proofreading activity of the viral 3′-5′ exoribonuclease (ExoN). β-d-N4-Hydroxycytidine (NHC) (EIDD-1931; Emory Institute for Drug Development) has recently been reported to inhibit multiple viruses. Here, we demonstrate that NHC inhibits both murine hepatitis virus (MHV) (50% effective concentration [EC50] = 0.17 μM) and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) (EC50 = 0.56 μM) with minimal cytotoxicity. NHC inhibited MHV lacking ExoN proofreading activity similarly to wild-type (WT) MHV, suggesting an ability to evade or overcome ExoN activity. NHC inhibited MHV only when added early during infection, decreased viral specific infectivity, and increased the number and proportion of G:A and C:U transition mutations present after a single infection. Low-level NHC resistance was difficult to achieve and was associated with multiple transition mutations across the genome in both MHV and MERS-CoV. These results point to a virus-mutagenic mechanism of NHC inhibition in CoVs and indicate a high genetic barrier to NHC resistance. Together, the data support further development of NHC for treatment of CoVs and suggest a novel mechanism of NHC interaction with the CoV replication complex that may shed light on critical aspects of replication. IMPORTANCE The emergence of coronaviruses (CoVs) into human populations from animal reservoirs has demonstrated their epidemic capability, pandemic potential, and ability to cause severe disease. However, no antivirals have been approved to treat these infections. Here, we demonstrate the potent antiviral activity of a broad-spectrum ribonucleoside analogue, β-d-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC), against two divergent CoVs. Viral proofreading activity does not markedly impact sensitivity to NHC inhibition, suggesting a novel interaction between a nucleoside analogue inhibitor and the CoV replicase. Further, passage in the presence of NHC generates only low-level resistance, likely due to the accumulation of multiple potentially deleterious transition mutations. Together, these data support a mutagenic mechanism of inhibition by NHC and further support the development of NHC for treatment of CoV infections

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Non-cationic proteins are associated with HIV neutralizing activity in genital secretions of female sex workers.

CAPRISA, 2015.Abstract available in pdf

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research