A 10-year Review of TB Notifications and Mortality Trends Using a Joint Point Analysis in Zambia - a High TB burden country

BACKGROUND: Zambia is one of the TB high-burden countries. It is important to track the progress being made towards enhancing case finding and reducing mortality. We reviewed routine TB notifications and mortality trends, over a decade from all facilities in Zambia. METHODS: A 10-year retrospective study of TB notifications and mortality trends was performed using a Joint Point Analysis version 4.9.0.0, NCI. We extracted the annual national TB program data for the period under review. RESULTS: There was a decline in annual point average for notification between 2010 and 2020 in both males and females, but the females notification rates had a higher rate of decline (AAPC = -6.7, 95%CI:-8.3 to -5.0), p<0.001) compared to the decline in males notification rate (AAPC = -4.1, 95%CI:-4.1 to -5.1, P<0.001). We found a significant growth rate in the proportion of TB patients that were bacteriologically confirmed (AAPC = 6.1, 95% CI: 3.6 to 8.7, p< 0.001), while the proportion of clinically diagnosed patients declined (AAPC= -0.1, 95%CI: -2.3 to 2.1, p<0.001). Notification of drug-resistant TB increased exponentially (AAPC=27.3, 95% CI: 13 to 41), p< 0.001) while mortality rate declined from 21.3 in 2011 to 12.7 in 2019 per 100,000 population (AAP=-5.6, 95%CI: -9.6 to -1.5, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: This study has illustrated the importance of reviewing and analyzing routinely collected TB data by national programs. The study revealed areas of improvement in terms of TB control and underscores the need for increased and sustained investment in case detection and diagnostics

Minimizing the impact of the triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and HIV on health services in sub-Saharan Africa

In this perspective, we discuss the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis (TB)/HIV health services and approaches to mitigating the growing burden of these three colliding epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA countries bear significantly high proportions of TB and HIV cases reported worldwide, compared to countries in the West. Whilst COVID-19 epidemiology appears to vary across Africa, most countries in this region have reported relatively lower-case counts compared to the West. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has added an additional burden to already overstretched health systems in SSA, which, among other things, have been focused on the longstanding dual epidemics of TB and HIV. As with these dual epidemics, inadequate resources and poor case identification and reporting may be contributing to underestimations of the COVID-19 case burden in SSA. Modelling studies predict that the pandemic-related disruptions in TB and HIV services will result in significant increases in associated morbidity and mortality over the next five years. Furthermore, limited empirical evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 coinfections with TB and HIV are associated with increased mortality risk in SSA. However, predictive models require a better evidence-base to accurately define the impact of COVID-19, not only on communicable diseases such as TB and HIV, but on non-communicable disease comorbidities. Further research is needed to assess morbidity and mortality data among both adults and children across the African continent, paying attention to geographic disparities, as well as the clinical and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 in the setting of TB and/or HIV

The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis among miners from the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe Districts of Malawi in 2019

Introduction Miners in sub-Saharan Africa have a greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than any other working population in the world. In spite of the presence of large and vulnerable population of miners in Malawi, no previous study has aimed to assess the burden of TB among these miners. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and health-seeking behaviour (HSB) in a population of miners in Malawi, and a range of associated factors. Our goal was to develop a method to identify missing cases of TB. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study in the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe districts of Malawi in 2019. We calculated frequencies, proportions, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and used the chi-square test in STATA version15.1 to investigate the burden and magnitude of PTB in the mining sector. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also fitted for PTB and HSB. ResultsOf the 2400 miners approached, we were able to interview 2013 (84%). Of these, 1435 (71%) were males, 1438 (71%) had known HIV status and 272 (14%) had PTB. Multivariate analysis showed that the miners performing informal mining were 50% more likely to develop PTB compared with those in formal mining (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.50, 95% CI: 1.10–2.05, P=0.01). A total of 459 (23% of 2013) miners had presumptive TB. Of these, 120 (26%) sought health care; 80% sought health care at health facilities. Multivariate analysis also showed that miners who experienced night sweats were less likely to seek health care compared with those without night sweats (AOR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30–0.90, P=0.02).ConclusionThe prevalence of PTB was higher among miners than in the general population. Consequently, targeted TB screening programmes for miners may represent a suitable strategy to adopt if we are to end TB by 2030. Poor health-seeking behaviours among miners is worrisome and further qualitative research is necessary to understand the barriers to accessing health care in these settings. &nbsp

Incidental Tuberculosis in sudden, unexpected, or violent deaths in the community Lusaka, Zambia - A descriptive forensic post-mortem examination study

Objectives: Tuberculosis remains a global emergency. In Zambia only 55% of tuberculosis cases are diagnosed. We performed a study to determine incidental cases of tuberculosis seen at forensic autopsy of individuals who died suddenly and unexpectedly in the community in Lusaka, Zambia. Methods: Whole-body autopsies were performed according to Standard Operating Procedures. Representative samples obtained from relevant organs were subjected to pathological examination. Information on circumstances surrounding the death was obtained. Data on patient demographics, gross and microscopic pathological findings, and cause(s) of death were analysed. Results: Incidental tuberculosis was found in 52 cases (45 male, 7 female, age range 14-66) out of 4286 whole-body autopsies. 41/52 (80%) were aged 21-50 years. One was a 14-year old boy who died during a football match. 39/52 (75%) deaths were attributable specifically to tuberculosis only. Other deaths were due to acute alcohol intoxication(4), violence(7), ruptured ectopic pregnancy(1), bacterial meningitis (1). All the cases were from poor socio-economic backgrounds and lived in high-density areas of Lusaka. Conclusions: Incidental cases of active tuberculosis undiagnosed antemortem seen at forensic autopsy reflects major gaps in the national TB control programs. More investments into proactive screening, testing, treatment activities, and accurate data collection are required

Eff ectiveness of 4% chlorhexidine umbilical cord care on neonatal mortality in Southern Province, Zambia (ZamCAT): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background Chlorhexidine umbilical cord washes reduce neonatal mortality in south Asian populations with high neonatal mortality rates and predominantly home-based deliveries. No data exist for sub-Saharan African populations with lower neonatal mortality rates or mostly facility-based deliveries. We compared the eff ect of chlorhexidine with dry cord care on neonatal mortality rates in Zambia. Methods We undertook a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Southern Province, Zambia, with 90 health facilitybased clusters. We enrolled women who were in their second or third trimester of pregnancy, aged at least 15 years, and who would remain in the catchment area for follow-up of 28 days post-partum. Newborn babies received clean dry cord care (control) or topical application of 10 mL of a 4% chlorhexidine solution once per day until 3 days after cord drop (intervention), according to cluster assignment. We used stratifi ed, restricted randomisation to divide clusters into urban or two rural groups (located <40 km or ≥40 km to referral facility), and randomly assigned clusters (1:1) to use intervention (n=45) or control treatment (n=45). Sites, participants, and fi eld monitors were aware of their study assignment. The primary outcomes were all-cause neonatal mortality within 28 days post-partum and all-cause neonatal mortality within 28 days post-partum among babies who survived the fi rst 24 h of life. Analysis was by intention to treat. Neonatal mortality rate was compared with generalised estimating equations. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01241318). Findings From Feb 15, 2011, to Jan 30, 2013, we screened 42 356 pregnant women and enrolled 39 679 women (mean 436·2 per cluster [SD 65·3]), who had 37 856 livebirths and 723 stillbirths; 63·8% of deliveries were facility-based. Of livebirths, 18 450 (99·7%) newborn babies in the chlorhexidine group and 19 308 (99·8%) newborn babies in the dry cord care group were followed up to day 28 or death. 16 660 (90·0%) infants in the chlorhexidine group had chlorhexidine applied within 24 h of birth. We found no signifi cant diff erence in neonatal mortality rate between the chlorhexidine group (15·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths) and the dry cord care group (13·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths; risk ratio [RR] 1·12, 95% CI 0·88–1·44). Eliminating day 0 deaths yielded similar fi ndings (RR 1·12, 95% CI 0·86–1·47). Interpretation Despite substantial reductions previously reported in south Asia, chlorhexidine cord applications did not signifi cantly reduce neonatal mortality rates in Zambia. Chlorhexidine cord applications do not seem to provide clear benefi ts for newborn babies in settings with predominantly facility-based deliveries and lower (<30 deaths per 1000 livebirths) neonatal mortality rates

First COVID-19 case in Zambia — Comparative phylogenomic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 detected in African countries

Since its first discovery in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has spread rapidly worldwide. While African countries were relatively spared initially, the initial low incidence of COVID-19 cases was not sustained for long due to continuing travel links between China, Europe and Africa. In preparation, Zambia had applied a multisectoral national epidemic disease surveillance and response system resulting in the identification of the first case within 48 h of the individual entering the country by air travel from a trip to France. Contact tracing showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection was contained within the patient’s household, with no further spread to attending health care workers or community members. Phylogenomic analysis of the patient’s SARS-CoV-2 strain showed that it belonged to lineage B.1.1., sharing the last common ancestor with SARS-CoV-2 strains recovered from South Africa. At the African continental level, our analysis showed that B.1 and B.1.1 lineages appear to be predominant in Africa. Whole genome sequence analysis should be part of all surveillance and case detection activities in order to monitor the origin and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages across Africa

Is Africa prepared for tackling the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. Lessons from past outbreaks, ongoing pan-African public health efforts, and implications for the future

Soon after the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV), was first identified in a cluster of patients with pneumonia (Li et al., 2020), in the Chinese city of Wuhan on 31 December 2019, rapid human to human transmission was anticipated (Hui et al., 2020). The fast pace of transmission is wreaking havoc and stirring media hype and public health concern (Ippolito et al., 2020) globally. When the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease, (now officially named COVID-19) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 31st January 2020 (WHO, 2020a), the Director General Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus justified the decision by stating that WHOs greatest concern was the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems. Repeated outbreaks of other preventable emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases with epidemic potential have taken their toll on the health systems of many African countries. The devastating 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Epidemic (WHO, 2020b) in West Africa, demonstrated how ill-prepared the affected countries were to rapidly identify the infection and halt transmission (WHO, 2020d, Largent, 2016, Hoffman and Silverberg, 2018, Omoleke et al., 2016). Similarly, the smoldering remnants of the 2018–19 Ebola Virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, have demonstrated even for health services with considerable experience of dealing with a certain emerging pathogen, geography and sociopolitical instability, can hamper the response (Aruna et al., 2019)